Measures of internet chatter have correctly predicted the Super Bowl winner for at least the past three seasons, according to social media website Mashable and data from Infegy, a social media analysis company. This year’s internet chatter indicates the Green Bay Packers will win Super Bowl XLV.
However, Green Bay’s internet chatter edge over the Pittsburgh Steelers is smaller than Infegy has measured since they began collecting this data in 2008. In Super Bowl discussions the company measured over the past month, Green Bay was mentioned 12.28% of the time, while Pittsburgh was mentioned 12.02%. Where Green Bay had a bigger edge was in how positive those conversations were: Packers conversations were 78% positive over the past month, compared with only 69% positive for the Steelers.
“I don’t think more buzz means more wins, it just seems likely that people would be talking more about the team that they believe likely to be the victor,” explained Infegy CEO Justin Graves.
I have a slightly different explanation. Last year, the Saints had more chatter than the Colts because they were in the Super Bowl for the first time and they had such a special storyline with New Orleans still rebuilding from Hurricane Katrina. In 2009, the Steelers had more chatter than the awful Cardinals because they were a huge favorite and the Cardinals were awful. In 2008, the Giants had more chatter than the 18-0 Patriots because most people thought the Patriots were a prohibitive favorite.