Five key statistical factors all indicate the Pittsburgh Steelers will win Super Bowl XLV, according to the authors of “Who Will Win the Big Game? A Psychological & Mathematical Method.” In their book, Carlton J. Chin, a fund manager, and Jay P. Granat, psychotherapist, looked at the results of the first 44 Super Bowls through the lenses of sports psychology and statistics, and have come up with five championship factors that also correctly predicted last year’s Super Bowl winner.
The five factors are Experience, Defense, Leadership and Minimizing Factors, Confidence and Consistency. While Chin and Granat say the Steelers have the edge in every category, they do hedge their bet some by pointing out that Pittsburgh has only a small edge over the Packers in most categories.
Experience is the most obvious difference between the two teams, with the more experience team winning 60.9% of the time (and even more often if you factor out the Buffalo Bills teams that lost four straight Super Bowl in the early 90s). Each of the other four categories also indicate the winner in at least 60% of Super Bowls.
The authors measure defense through regular season points allowed – the Steelers allowed 14.5 points per game, while the Packers allowed 15. Leadership and Minimizing Factors is measured by interceptions thrown — Pittsburgh quarterbacks threw nine in the regular season, while Green Bay threw 13. (And if you want to only look at the starters: Ben Roethlisberger threw five picks in 12 games, while Aaron Rodgers threw 11 in 15 games.) Confidence is measured through double-digit regular season wins: the Steelers had six, the Packers had five. Consistency is measured through rushing yards per carry: the Steelers averaged 4.1 yards per carry, the Packers just 3.8 yards per run.