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Reviews of Online Gambling Sites 2026 NFL First Coach Fired Odds: Is Jim Harbaugh on the Hot Seat?
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Dan Quinn remains the favorite in the latest NFL first coach fired odds after Washington’s 1-3-1 start to the season. Injuries have derailed the Commanders’ hopes of a fast start, and Quinn could be let go if the team does not turn things around soon.
Keep reading for a closer look at the updated first coach fired odds ahead of Week 6. I break down my top pick to be fired and explain how Quinn and others can get off the hot seat.
2026 NFL First Coach Fired Odds
The top football betting sites have the following odds on the first coach to be fired this season.
| Coach | BetUS1 of 2 | BetOnline2 of 2 |
|---|---|---|
| Dan Quinn (WAS) | +150 (was +200) | +200 (was +200) |
| Nick Sirianni (PHI) | +300 (was +2000) | +400 (was +2500) |
| Todd Bowles (TB) | +400 (was +250) | +500 (was +350) |
| DeMeco Ryans (HOU) | +600 | +700 |
| Jim Harbuagh (LAC) | +600 | +750 |
| Shane Steichen (IND) | +800 (was +800) | +900 (was +1000) |
| Brian Schottenheimer (DAL) | +800 (was +2000) | +900 (was +2500) |
| Matt LaFleur (GB) | +900 | +900 |
| Robert Saleh (TEN) | +1200 (was +2200) | +1200 (was +2500) |
| Aaron Glenn (NYJ) | +3000 (was +300) | +4000 (was +400) |
| Sean Payton (DEN) | +3500 | +5000 |
The odds above are accurate as of October 15th.
Quinn opened as the favorite to be the first coach fired and remains at the top of the odds boards. Washington has struggled with injuries and clock management, leading to a 1-3-1 start.
Philadelphia’s Nick Sirianni has shot up the odds boards after the team’s back-to-back-to-back losses. He opened at 25-1 odds at BetOnline, which now has Sirianni listed at 4-1 odds to be fired first.
Aaron Glenn, on the other hand, has faded significantly in this market. BetUS had Glenn listed at +300 at the start of the year, but he has dropped to +3000 odds to be the first coach fired.
The Nerd’s Verdict on the 1st Coach Fired in 2026
- Verdict: Bet on Jim Harbaugh to be fired first
- Best captured price: +750 at BetOnline
- Break-even probability: 11.76%
- Target price: +500 or longer odds
- Primary risk: Injuries could excuse the Chargers’ poor start.
- Confidence: Moderate – LAC is one of three winless teams and will be underdogs for the foreseeable future.
Why Jim Harbaugh Is the Best Bet to Be Fired 1st
After back-to-back 11-6 seasons to start his tenure, Jim Harbaugh and the Chargers had high hopes this season. LAC has failed to live up to even the most conservative expectations this year.
The Chargers (0-5) are one of three winless teams and are the only franchise that has not covered a point spread this season. Miami and Tennessee are also winless, but they both have first-year head coaches and had no playoff expectations coming into this year.
Justin Herbert and the offense have struggled significantly under new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel. Their -45 point differential is the fourth-worst in the NFL. Herbert and company are averaging fewer than 300 total yards per game, including the third-fewest passing YPG (164.6).
LA could be waiting a while for its first win of the year. The Chargers’ upcoming schedule includes:
- Week 6: at the Kansas City Chiefs (4-0)
- Week 7: Bye
- Week 8: at the LA Rams (2-3)
- Week 9: vs. the Houston Texans (1-4)
- Week 10: at the Baltimore Ravens (4-1)
If the Chargers lose this week against the Chiefs, ownership could opt for a coaching change ahead of LA’s Week 7 bye.
LA has fired coaches mid-season before. Brandon Staley was fired late in the 2023 season after a 5-9 start. A 63-21 blowout loss to the Raiders in prime time prompted the change.
Replacing McDaniel could buy Harbaugh some time. However, given the Chargers’ numerous injuries on the offensive line, LAC needs more than a coordinator change to save their season and Harbaugh’s job.
Who the Market Picks to Be the 1st NFL Coach Fired
The market is still picking Dan Quinn to be the first coach fired this season. Quinn opened the 2026 season as the favorite after a disappointing year in 2025.
Injuries derailed QB Jayden Daniels’ sophomore season, and he has struggled with them again this year. Daniels dislocated his left elbow for the second time in as many seasons and missed two games.
Adding to Quinn’s woes is the negative publicity from the team’s Week 5 tie. Clock management and play-calling issues, both of which fall on Quinn, cost the Giants a win as time ran out in overtime.
If a coach had to be fired today, it would likely be Quinn.
However, with Daniels back in the lineup, the Commanders have a chance to turn their season around. They play in prime time two of the next three weeks, and a win on national television can save Quinn’s job. However, the team’s Week 7 bye presents an ideal time to change HCs if the Commanders fall flat against the 49ers on Monday Night Football this week.
Why Sirianni Has Moved Up First Coach Fired Odds Boards
One coach who has moved significantly up the boards in first coach fired markets is Eagles’ HC Nick Sirianni. Philadelphia started 2-0 but has lost three straight games.
A big part of the Eagles’ struggles has been injuries. The team has been decimated by injuries and roster moves in recent weeks, including:
- Saquon Barkley (hamstring)
- WR DeVonta Smith (hamstring/toe)
- RB Tank Bigsby (abdomen)
- RB Will Shipley (foot)
- OT Lane Jahons (retirement)
- OL Cam Jurgens (traded)
- OL Landon Dickerson (knee)
It was also announced that QB Jalen Hurts is out indefinitely due to a blood clot.
Philly fans do not take losing well, even if the roster is littered with injuries. The Eagles’ front office has also quickly pulled the plug on other coaches, including firing Doug Pederson after a 4-11-1 season in 2020, despite winning the Super Bowl a few years earlier.
Sirianni has been on the hot seat before, and mounting injuries could cost him his job by pushing the front office into a rebuild.m this year at 5.5 wins. Tampa Bay and Washington, on the other hand, are expected to finish around .500 this season.
Factors That Get Coaches Fired Midseason
Some of the most common factors that lead to coaches being fired midseason include:
- Poor performance
- “Losing” the locker room
- Inpatient owners
- Front offices are turning toward the future
- Off-the-field scandals
Losing leads to more coaches being fired than any other shortcoming. If a coach is being fired midseason, though, it is usually because they have lost consistently over multiple seasons.
Speaking of losing, even if a coach is winning the field, they can still be on the hot seat if they “lose” the locker room. Conflicts between coaches and team leaders are tough to predict, but coaches with a history of struggling with players can be targets for firing.
Coaches also need to worry about the owner and front office growing impatient. Carolina, for example, has had seven head coaches and interim coaches since David Tepper bought the team in 2018.
Off-the-field scandals can also lead to coaches being fired before the season is over. Urban Meyer famously only had a 13-game stint as the Jaguars’ head coach in 2021, tied for the fourth-shortest coaching tenure in NFL history. Despite being in town for less than a year, Meyer had multiple off-the-field scandals and kicked a player.
How Coaches Can Get Off the Hot Seat
The easiest way for Quinn, Sirianni, and any other coach in the hot seat to improve their job security is to win. For many coaches currently at risk of being fired, stacking wins before their upcoming bye weeks will be a must.
Winning will be easier said than done for coaches like Sirianni and Harbaugh, whose losses are largely tied to injuries.
Both the Eagles and the Chargers have multiple starting o-linemen out with injury. They have also had several skill players go down with injury.
Sirianni’s job will be even tougher now that Jalen Hurts is out. However, missing his starting QB could actually help Sirianni’s case, as it gives him a built-in excuse. Harbaugh, on the other hand, still has his starting QB.
Which Coach Do You Think Will Be Fired 1st?
The market still has Dan Quinn as the favorite to be the first coach fired. Quinn is on the hot seat, but I think Jim Harbaugh, whose Chargers are 0-5, is a better bet to be fired first. BetOnline offers the best return on Harbaugh at +750 odds.
(Photo by AP Photo/Ben VanHouten)
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