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The Rams and Colts were costly NFL survivor picks in Week 6, but my high-EV strategy avoided those traps. Houston could be a similar risk this weekend. The Texans will draw a lot of attention as 10.5-point favorites.
I break down my NFL survivor Week 7 picks in the betting guide below.
Current NFL Week 7 Odds
BetOnline provided the following Week 7 odds on October 21st.
- New England Patriots vs. Chicago Bears (-3.0)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) vs. New Orleans Saints
- San Francisco 49ers (-3.0) vs. Atlanta Falcons
- Cincinnati Bengals (-1.0) vs. Baltimore Ravens
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers (-3.0)
- New York Giants vs. Houston Texans (-10.5)
- Indianapolis Colts vs. Minnesota Vikings (-6.5)
- Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets (-4.5)
- Cleveland Browns (-1.5) vs. Tennessee Titans
- Denver Broncos (-4.0) vs. Arizona Cardinals
- Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions (-3.0)
- Los Angeles Rams (-4.0) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
- Kansas City Chiefs vs. Seattle Seahawks (-3.0)
- Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
See our BetOnline review for more information about this sportsbook.
Top Week 7 Survivor Picks According to the Market
Top NFL betting sites rank the Texans as the best Week 7 survivor pick. Houston is laying 10.5 points as home favorites against the visiting Giants.
The Texans are a tough favorite to trust. Houston has won back-to-back games, but they are still digging themselves out of their 0-4 start. Also, the Texans’ defense has continued to struggle against the pass.
Houston has allowed 246 passing yards per game, the sixth-most in the league. Last week, Trevor Lawrence racked up 306 passing yards against the Texans.
New York will be starting JJ McCarthy. The former top-10 pick flamed out in Minnesota and has not started a game yet this year. However, McCarthy threw for 243 yards on just 11 completions after entering the game in the fourth quarter last week.
Giants’ coach John Harbaugh is also 9-3 against the Texans in his career.
At the time of writing, Houston is the most-picked team in BetOnline’s survivor contest. So far, 36% of contestants have selected the Texans as their team for Week 7.
The Nerd’s NFL Survivor Week 7 Picks
See the table below for my Week 7 NFL survivor pick.
| NFL Survivor Strategy | Week 7 Pick |
|---|---|
| High EV Team | Minnesota Vikings |
High EV: Minnesota Vikings
- Picking a team with a high EV: Balancing win percentage and pick percentage.
I am picking the Vikings as my high-EV survivor team in Week 7. Minnesota is coming off a bye and is laying 6.5 points at home against the Colts.
Indianapolis (2-4) has lost back-to-back games, including a 20-26 defeat at the hands of the previously winless Titans last week. The Colts have been one of the league’s worst offenses this season, averaging 311.3 total YPG (11th-fewest).
Despite their struggles to move the ball, the Colts have averaged 24.0 points per game this season.
Minnesota’s defense has given up 259.8 total YPG, the second-fewest in the NFL. Also, they have allowed a league-low 12.8 PPG to opposing teams. The Vikings’ blitz-happy defense will be a problem for Daniel Jones, who has been sacked 15 times (T-5th) this season.
The Vikings offense has also struggled to move the ball, averaging the sixth-fewest total yards this season (283.0 YPG). On the bright side, Indy’s defense is allowing the ninth-most total YPG (351.2), so Kyler Murray and company should have an easier time moving the ball this weekend.
Factors to Consider for Week 7
Here are three factors to consider when making your Week 7 survivor picks.
- Teams Could Be Preparing to Make Moves at the Trade Deadline: The trade deadline is fast approaching, and some teams are preparing to make moves. Teams could cut stars’ playing time in trade talks, similar to how the Cardinals benched Marvin Harrison Jr. before trading him.
- Avoid Bad Defenses: Teams with bad defenses are always a risky bet, especially in survivor. Dallas and Detroit, for instance, are always major risks since their defenses allow 26+ points per game.
- Stay Away From Teams With Long Travel Requirements: Long travel can tax even the most talented teams. West Coast teams that have to travel East for early kickoffs, like the 49ers, are tricky picks as a result.
2026 NFL Survivor Picks
Check out the table below for a closer look at all of my survivor picks so far this year.
| NFL Week | High EV1 of 4 | Biggest Favorite2 of 4 | Playing a Bad Team3 of 4 | Best NFL Teams4 of 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | Jacksonville Jaguars | Los Angeles Chargers | Las Vegas Raiders | Detroit Lions |
| Week 2 | Philadelphia Eagles | __ | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | San Francisco 49ers |
| Week 3 | San Francisco 49ers | __ | __ | Seattle Seahawks |
| Week 4 | Seattle Seahawks | __ | __ | __ |
| Week 5 | Houston Texans | __ | __ | __ |
| Week 6 | Kansas City Chiefs | __ | __ | __ |
| Week 7 | Minnesota Vikings | __ | __ | __ |
The Texans are the biggest favorite, but it is hard to call them a good team given their 2-4 record. Denver (4-2), on the other hand, has two games above .500 and plays the Cardinals (2-4), one of the league’s worst teams.
When And How Each Survivor Strategy Lost
Keep reading to see how and why each of my above strategies lost this season.
Picking the Biggest Favorite – Week 1
Blindly picking the biggest favorite each week did not even make it one game into the 2026 NFL season. The Chargers were favored by 10 points against the Cardinals, giving LA the biggest spread by a wide margin.
Three major factors doomed this strategy:
- It is challenging to make accurate spreads based on preseason assumptions.
- Arizona overperformed expectations.
- The Chargers underperformed expectations.
It is not unusual for offenses to struggle early in the season. LAC is implementing a new offense, has a new play-caller, and QB Justin Herbert has played minimal snaps in the preseason.
Playing a Bad Team – Week 2
Cleveland’s Week 2 upset of the Buccaneers was costly for survivor players across the country. It eliminated my “Playing a Bad Team” strategy and thousands of other tickets. In total, 29% of tickets in BetOnline’s contest were taken out by the Bucs’ loss.
Defining a good or bad team early in the season is challenging because no team has enough plays on tape to be classified as great or terrible.
The multi-hour rain delay at the end of Browns-Buccaneers did not help either, as it killed much of Tampa Bay’s momentum during its attempt at a game-winning drive. Even after the delay, Baker Mayfield and co. almost won, but failed to convert on a fourth down in the red zone in the game’s final seconds.
Picking One of the Best Teams – Week 3
Seattle was one of the best teams to start the year and was poised to be even better with Sam Darnold’s return in Week 3. Unfortunately, the Seahawks’ defense did not make the trip to the DMV with the team, and they lost 33-31 to the previously winless Commanders.
The loss ended Seattle’s 12-game winning streak.
Darnold also looked rusty in his first real action of the season. He threw a game-sealing pick-six in the fourth quarter that pushed the Commanders’ lead out of reach.
Seattle’s running game was also nonexistent, gaining just 44 yards on 18 attempts, averaging 2.4 yards per carry. Rookie Jadarian Price led the team with 15 yards on five carries. Eleven of Price’s 15 yards came on one carry.
What Are Your Week 7 NFL Survivor Picks?
Fewer than 2,000 contestants remain in BetOnline’s survivor contest, and my high-EV ticket is one of them. See the guide above to learn why the Minnesota Vikings are the best NFL survivor pick this week.
Then create your BetOnline account today to bet on your Week 7 predictions and join its new $100,000 NFL Spread Survivor II contest.
(Photo by AP Photo/Matthew Hinton)
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