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Reviews of Online Gambling Sites 2026 NFL MVP Odds: Josh Allen Opens the Season as Betting Favorite
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Josh Allen is the betting favorite in the 2026 NFL MVP odds to start the season. Buffalo’s QB won the regular-season award in 2024 and has 7-1 or shorter odds to win it this year.
Continue reading to see the latest NFL MVP odds for the 2026 season. Also, I break down my top pick to win MVP this season.
2026 NFL MVP Odds Tracker
Here are the latest NFL MVP odds as of September 7th, courtesy of the top NFL betting sites.
| Player | Lucky Rebel | BetUS | BetOnline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen (BUF) | +675 | +700 | +650 |
| Lamar Jackson (BAL) | +875 | +800 | +1000 |
| Joe Burrow (CIN) | +925 | +800 | +850 |
| Drake Maye (NE) | +1100 | +1100 | +1200 |
| Justin Herbert (LAC) | +1100 | +1000 | +1000 |
| Caleb Williams (CHI) | +1400 | +1400 | +1400 |
| Patrick Mahomes (KC) | +1400 | +1100 | +1400 |
| Dak Prescott (DAL) | +1500 | +1200 | +1200 |
| Matthew Stafford (LAR) | +1500 | +1200 | +1200 |
| Brock Purdy (SF) | +1700 | +2000 | +1800 |
| Jalen Hurts (PHI) | +2000 | +2800 | +3300 |
| Jayden Daniels (WAS) | +2500 | +2000 | +2800 |
| Jordan Love | +2500 | +2000 | +1800 |
| Trevor Lawrence | +2500 | +2200 | +2000 |
| Sam Darnold | +3000 | +2800 | +3300 |
The first prices captured by GamblingNerd have Josh Allen as the unanimous MVP favorite at Lucky Rebel (+675), BetUS (+700), and BetOnline (+650).
Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow round out the consensus top three. Jackson ranges from as short as 8-1 to as long as 10-1 odds to win his third MVP. Burrow, on the other hand, ranges from +800 to +925.
The Nerd’s Verdict on NFL MVP in 2026
- Verdict: Bet on Caleb Williams to win MVP
- Best captured price: Williams is listed at 14-1 at Lucky Rebel, BetUS, and BetOnline
- Break-even probability: 6.67%
- Target price: +1000 or shorter odds
- Primary risk: Chicago has the toughest strength of schedule.
- Confidence: Moderate – Williams excelled in Ben Johnson’s first year and should be even better in year two.
Why Caleb Williams Will Win MVP in 2026
Caleb Williams is just outside the top five MVP contenders entering the 2026 season at 14-1 odds. Despite not being a favorite, there are many reasons to believe in Williams as an MVP contender this season.
Williams made a major leap in multiple categories last year, including:
| Category | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-12 (4th in NFC North) | 11-6 (1st in NFC North) |
| Completion % | 62.5% (42nd) | 58.1% (34th) |
| Passing Yards | 3,541 (17th) | 3,942 (7th) |
| Passing TDs | 20 (T-15th) | 27 (6th) |
| Sacks | 68 (Most in NFL) | 24 (22nd most) |
| Passer Rating | 87.8 (24th) | 90.1 (22nd) |
| QBR | 43.3 (28th) | 58.2 (16th) |
If Williams can make similar improvements from his sophomore to his junior season, he will undeniably be one of the best QBs in the league.
Williams and the Bears are entering their second year under head coach Ben Johnson. After spending last season learning Johnson’s scheme, Williams and the rest of the offense are well-positioned to take another leap this season.
MVP candidates also get extra points for playing well in prime-time games. Chicago plays six prime-time games this season, including:
- Week 3 vs. Philadelphia (MNF)
- Week 7 vs. New England (TNF)
- Week 8 @ Seattle (MNF)
- Week 9 vs. Tampa Bay (SNF)
- Week 15 @ Buffalo (Saturday)
- Week 16 vs. Green Bay (Christmas)
Playing well and winning prime-time games, especially against tough teams, will help Williams convince fans and voters that he deserves to be in the MVP conversation.
Challenging Schedule, Injuries Threaten Bears in 2026
Chicago will have to overcome the toughest schedule in the NFL if it wants to repeat as NFC North champions. The Bears’ 2026 opponents had a combined winning percentage of 55% last year, the highest of any schedule.
A challenging schedule is not the only thing threatening to derail Williams and the Bears in 2026. Multiple Chicago players suffered injuries in the preseason, including:
- RB Kyle Monangai (knee)
- WR Rome Odunze (leg)
- WR Luther Burden III (groin)
If injuries derail the Bears’ offense early in the year, it will be challenging for Williams to climb back into the MVP race.
Who the Market Picks to Win NFL MVP in 2026
Bills’ QB Josh Allen is the overall favorite to win NFL MVP this year.
| Bookmaker | Odds | Implied Win Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Lucky Rebel | +675 | 12.9% |
| BetUS | +700 | 12.5% |
| BetOnline | +650 | 13.33% |
Based on the current odds as of September 7th, you can get the most value on an Allen MVP futures ticket at BetUS, which offers 7-1 odds on Buffalo’s QB.
How Josh Allen Can Win His 2nd NFL MVP
Starting as the favorite to win MVP is a major boost to Allen’s campaign. Media perception is a significant component of winning the award, and Allen is beloved by NFL talking heads.
Allen was the top-ranked QB on this year’s NFL Top 100 and was ranked as the best QB in ESPN’s anonymous GM survey.
To win a second MVP, Allen must do something he failed at last year: win the AFC East. Also, he needs to continue being a dominant rusher. Allen was third in the NFL with 14 rushing TDs, the most of any QB last season.
Buffalo added WR DJ Moore, who is familiar with Joe Brady’s offense from their time in Carolina. If Moore lives up to his WR1 billing, Allen has a great shot at finishing as a top-10 passer. He was 11th last year with 3,668 passing yards.
Allen has plenty of opportunities to showcase his skills to national audiences, too. Buffalo plays in six prime-time matchups this season.
- Week 2 vs. Detroit (TNF)
- Week 5 @ Los Angeles Rams (MNF)
- Week 9 @ Minnesota (MNF)
- Week 12 vs. Kansas City (Thanksgiving)
- Week 14 @ Green Bay (SNF)
- Week 15 vs. Chicago (Saturday)
- Week 16 vs. Denver (Christmas)
Allen sealed his MVP in 2024 thanks in part to a huge win late in the season over Kansas City. The Bills’ prime-time-heavy schedule late in the year provides Allen with an excellent opportunity to do that again in 2026.
Barriers to Allen’s MVP Campaign
Allen’s MVP campaign is off to a great start before the season has even kicked off. However, his path to another MVP is not without its hurdles.
Buffalo faces a tough opening schedule, including a Week 1 date with the Texans in Houston. They also play the Lions, Chargers, Patriots, and Rams in the first five weeks of the year. Losing ground in the AFC East race early will make it that much harder for the Bills to reclaim their divisional crown.
The Bills’ defense is another concern. Buffalo allowed 136.2 rushing yards per game last season, the fifth-most in the NFL.
Buffalo needs its new Defensive Coordinator, Jim Leonhard, to turn the team’s defense around. Otherwise, the Bills’ defense will cost the team games once again. Allen cannot win the award without at least winning the division.
Factors that Impact NFL MVP
The NFL does not have officially defined criteria for the Most Valuable Player award. However, the award’s history provides insight into what voters value most.
“Value” of the Position
The word “value” in MVP has become a point of emphasis in recent years. This renewed focus on a player’s “value” has helped one position in MVP voting: quarterbacks.
Since 2000, only four non-quarterbacks have won the MVP award, and all four were running backs. The other 22 winners this decade have all been QBs, including the last 13 straight winners.
In other words, QBs have a major leg up on every other position in the mind of MVP voters. That bias is reflected in the betting lines, too.
Media Voters and All-Pro Rankings
A large majority of the QBs who have won MVP have also been named First-Team All-Pro that season. Steve McNair (2003) and Josh Allen (2024) are the only QBs this century to win MVP without being First-Team All-Pro.
The connection should not be surprising, as the same 50 voters who decide the MVP also choose the All-Pro teams.
Staying up to date with AP voters throughout the season can provide insight into which players they are leaning toward picking for MVP.
Individual and Team Success
To win MVP, a player has to have both team and individual success. Sam Darnold, for instance, has had plenty of team success the last two years but has failed to put up MVP numbers himself.
Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow has had the opposite problem. Burrow led the league in passing attempts, completions, yards, and TDs in 2024 but only finished fourth in MVP voting after the Bengals missed the playoffs.
Who Is Your 2026 NFL MVP Prediction?
Josh Allen has the shortest odds of winning MVP entering the 2026 season. However, Caleb Williams is the better pick at 14-1 after he made a massive leap in 2025. Williams faces a tough schedule, but his familiarity with Ben Johnson’s offense opens the door for the former Heisman winner to make another jump in year three.
(Photo from AP Photo/Jeffrey T. Barnes)
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