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Reviews of Online Gambling Sites UFC Fight Night Predictions and Betting Odds: Rosas Jr. Favored to Beat Barcelos
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UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos takes place Saturday, September 26th, at the Meta APEX in Las Vegas. This card is also known as UFC Vegas 121 and UFC Fight Night 289. Raul Rosas Jr. is the consensus favorite in the main event over Raoni Barcelos.
Continue reading to see the latest UFC Fight Night odds for every matchup on this weekend’s 12-fight card. I discuss the latest odds from top bookmakers and break down my favorite picks for the event.
Current Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos Odds
Here are the latest odds for UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos, courtesy of the best UFC betting sites.
| Fight | Lucky Rebel | BetUS | BetOnline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yazmin Jauregui vs. Vanessa Demopolos | Jauregui (-950) Demopolos (+600) | Jauregui (-925) Demopolos (+590) | Jauregui (-925) Demopolos (+635) |
| Mickey Gall vs. Sedriques Dumas | Gall (-142) Dumas (+122) | Gall (-140) Dumas (+118) | Gall (-140) Dumas (+120) |
| Norma Dumont vs. Ailín Pérez | Dumont (+123) Pérez (-145) | Dumont (+122) Pérez (-145) | Dumont (+125) Pérez (-146) |
| John Castañeda vs. Alatengheili | Castañeda (-345) Alatengheili (+280) | Castañeda (-355) Alatengheili (+282) | Castañeda (-355) Alatengheili (+287) |
| Montel Jackson vs. Ricky Simón | Jackson (-205) Simón (+174) | Jackson (-210) Simón (+174) | Jackson (-210) Simón (+177) |
| Rodolfo Bellato vs. Christian Edwards | Bellato (-179) Edwards (+151) | Bellato (-178) Edwards (+154) | Bellato (-182) Edwards (+154) |
| Elves Brener vs. Josiah Harrell | Brener (+110) Harrell (-130) | Brener (+110) Harrell (-130) | Brener (+110) Harrell (-129) |
| Rinya Nakamura vs. Brady Hiestand | Nakamura (-370) Hiestand (+295) | Nakamura (-365) Hiestand (+288) | Nakamura (-365) Hiestand (+294) |
| Valesca Machado vs. Melissa Amaya | Machado (-218) Amaya (+180) | Machado (-215) Amaya (+178) | Machado (-2169) Amaya (+182) |
| Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu vs. Mehemmedeli Osmanli | Uulu (+235) Osmanli (-285) | Uulu (+234) Osmanli (-285) | Uulu (+231) Osmanli (-279) |
| Rodolfo Vieira vs. Robert Bryczek | Vieira (-160) Bryczek (+135) | Vieira (-160) Bryczek (+134) | Vieira (-162) Bryczek (+138) |
| Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Raoni Barcelos | Rosas Jr. (-162) Barcelos (+137) | Rosas Jr. (-165) Barcelos (+138) | Rosas Jr. (-166) Barcelos (+141) |
*The odds above are accurate for the respective sportsbooks as of September 24th, 2026.
Rosas Jr. is a small favorite over Barcelos in their upcoming Bantamweight fight. El Niño Problema’s odds range from -162 to -166. Barcelos, on the other hand, is an underdog at +137 to +141, depending on the book you use.
The Nerd’s Verdict: Best UFC Fight Night Picks
Here are my picks for the top fights on this weekend’s UFC Vegas 121.
Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu vs. Mehemmedeli Osmanli
- Verdict: Bet on Osmanli to win
- Best captured price: -279 at BetOnline
- Break-even probability: 73.61
- Target price: -325 or shorter
- Primary risk: Both fighters are making their UFC debuts.
- Confidence: Moderate – Akylbek has lost two of his last four fights
Mehemmedeli Osmanli to Win (-279)
Akylbek Uulu (10-3) and Osmanli (12-1) are set to make their respective UFC debuts after impressive runs in other promotions. Osmanli brings a nine-fight win streak into Saturday’s UFC Fight Night.
Uulu, on the other hand, has lost two of his last four fights. These two know each other well, having been teammates on TUF 34. This fight serves as the Bantamweight finale of the season.
Both fighters are skilled grapplers, with a combined 14 submission wins in their careers. It could be Osmanli’s striking that is the difference maker this weekend, though. He has two KO wins in his career, while Akylbek is 0-3 in fights that end in a knockout.
Rodolfo Vieira vs. Robert Bryczek
- Verdict: Bet on Bryczek to win
- Best captured price: +138 at BetOnline
- Break-even probability: 42.02%
- Target price: Even money or longer
- Primary risk: Vieira has 9 submission wins in his career to Bryczek’s 1.
- Confidence: Moderate – Vieira is 1-3 in his last 4 fights and has struggled with strikers.
Robert Bryczek to Win (+138)
Rodolfo Vieira started his UFC career 5-2 and won three Performance of the Night bonuses. Vieira has crashed and burned since, losing three of his last four. Despite his recent skid, Vieira is the betting favorite for his upcoming fight against Robert Bryczek.
Bryczek is 1-2 since joining the UFC, but his striking could help him improve to .500 in the Octagon this weekend. He has 12 KO wins in his career, including nine in the first round. He has also only been finished twice, once by KO and once by submission.
Vieira has struggled in the stand-up game, including a loss to Chris Curtis early in his UFC tenure. Bo Nickal, a wrestler, even knocked Vieira out in their fight last November. Bryczek’s best shot at an upset is to keep the fight standing and exploit Vieira’s weak striking.
Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Raoni Barcelos
- Verdict: Bet on Rosas Jr. to win
- Best captured price: -162 at Lucky Rebel
- Break-even probability: 61.83%
- Target price: -200 or shorter odds
- Primary risk: Barcelos is the better striker, with 8 KO wins in his career.
- Confidence: Moderate – Rosas Jr. is 6-1 in the UFC, and his only career loss was by decision.
Raul Rosas Jr. to Win (-162)
Rosas Jr. is a -162 favorite at Lucky Rebel as he puts his five-fight win streak on the line against Raoni Barcelos. Barcelos has also won five fights in a row and is 11-4 overall in the UFC since joining the promotion in 2018.
Half of Barcelos’s 22 career wins have come via decision. In fact, he has only finished four of his 15 opponents in the UFC.
Rosas Jr., conversely, has three finishes in his six UFC wins, one KO and two submissions. He has only gone the distance in five of his 13 career fights.
Barcelos could have the edge if the fight goes to the judges’ scorecards. However, since it is the main event, the fight is scheduled for five rounds rather than the usual three. Rosas Jr.’s grappling skills will help him finish off Barcelos inside of five rounds.
Who the Market Picks for UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos
Oddsmakers have Rosas Jr. as the betting favorite for his upcoming main event fight against Barcelos. However, El Niño Problema is far from the biggest favorite on the card.
According to the oddsmakers, Yazmin Jauregui is the best bet to win this weekend.
- Lucky Rebel: Jauregui (-950) vs. Demopolos
- BetUS: Jauregui (-925) vs. Demopolos
- BetOnline: Jauregui (-925) vs. Demopolos
Jauregui and Demopolos square off in the first prelim fight.
On the main card, the biggest favorite is Rinya Nakamura. Nakamura is scheduled to fight Brady Hiestand in the opening fight of the main card. Lucky Rebel has Nakamura at -370, while BetUS and BetOnline both list him at -365.
Biggest Risk Factors for UFC Fight Night Markets
- Debuts can be unpredictable: Multiple fighters are making their UFC debuts this weekend, and it is challenging to predict how they will perform against higher-level competition.
- Watch training camp injuries: Following news about fighters’ injuries in camp can give you an edge over the public when making your bets.
- Watch for issues at the weigh-ins: Fighters who struggle to make weight are often drained for the fight itself.
What Are Your UFC Fight Night Full Card Predictions?
I agree with the oddsmakers that Rosas Jr. will win the main event; however, I am picking an upset in the co-main. Bryczek (+138) is a talented striker who can give Vieira (-162) his fourth loss in his last five fights.
Photo from UFC.com
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