• Betting Odds
• NFL
• Sports Betting

2026 NFL Odds & Predictions for Week 10: Why the Panthers Will Upset the Saints

Jacksonville is the biggest favorite in our NFL Week 10 odds and predictions, but that does not make the Jaguars the safest bet. The Jags are laying 10.5 points in Tennessee against a Titans team that had a bye last Sunday.

Continue reading to see the latest lines and our expert NFL odds and predictions for Week 10 after an active trade deadline.

NFL Week 10 Odds Snapshot

Here are the updated NFL Week 10 odds at the best NFL sportsbooks, as of November 10th.

The Nerd’s Top NFL Picks for Week 10

See the table below for a closer look at my favorite NFL bets for Week 10.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Atlanta Falcons

Kansas City Chiefs -3.0 (-118)

The Chiefs ended their two-game skid last week, but the win over the Jets was a costly one. Patrick Mahomes injured his elbow before halftime but was able to finish the game.

Patrick Mahomes came back and secured the win after a big hit 😤@insidethenfl Week 9 Mic’d Up on X pic.twitter.com/sYrp1fIbdU

— NFL (@NFL) November 10, 2026

He is day-to-day, but assuming Mahomes is healthy enough to play, the Chiefs should cover as 3.0-point road favorites against the Falcons this week.

KC’s success this year has, surprisingly, come from its running game. Kenneth Walker III has averaged 130.5 scrimmage yards per game, the second-most in the NFL. Atlanta has struggled to stop running backs this year, allowing 141.33 scrimmage YPG to the position.

The Falcons have also allowed 11 total TDs to running backs this year. Even with Mahomes’ injury, KC should win and cover by leaning on KW3 on Sunday.

Houston Texans vs. Cleveland Browns

Cleveland Browns +5.0 (-112)

Lucky Rebel listed the Browns as 5.0-point home underdogs for Sunday’s matchup with the visiting Texans. Houston is only 3-5 this season, but all of their wins have come on the road. For comparison, Cleveland is 3-0 at home this year.

The Texans’ offense has been great this year, averaging 356.5 total YPG and 26.1 PPG. However, their defense has struggled to stop opponents.

Houston has allowed 24.0 PPG and given up 338.6 total YPG. Cleveland, by contrast, is allowing just 21.8 PPG. Deshaun Watson should be back in the lineup for Cleveland. Watson will help the Browns cover against his former team if Cleveland’s defense keeps Houston under 24 points. 

Miami Dolphins vs. Indianapolis Colts

Miami Dolphins (+127)

Miami is only 1-7, but they are a young team and have been a tough out for many opponents this season. The Dolphins’ running game has also shown flashes of greatness, averaging 117.5 YPG and 4.4 yards per carry.

The Colts, on the other hand, are favored in this matchup despite trading away multiple players ahead of the deadline. They kept RB Jonathan Taylor, but he could be on a snap count the rest of the year as they try to preserve his trade value for the offseason.

BREAKING: The Colts will NOT trade All-Pro RB Jonathan Taylor ahead of today’s deadline, despite multiple teams offering at least a second-round pick, per @TomPelissero.

Indianapolis wanted a BLOCKBUSTER offer to even consider trading him 👀 pic.twitter.com/FARS0EKgQ3

— Yahoo Sports (@YahooSports) November 10, 2026

Also, Indianapolis has lost five consecutive games and is 1-3 at home this year.

Miami placed QB Malik Willis on IR and needs to recommit to its running game if it wants to secure the upset this week. The Dolphins had 100+ rushing yards in five of their first six games. However, they have been held under 80 rushing yards in back-to-back weeks.

Indy allows the third-most rushing yards in the NFL, surrendering 137.0 YPG on the ground. The Colts’ weak run defense plays to Miami’s strengths, which should allow the Dolphins to win.

Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints

Carolina Panthers (+103)

The Panthers (3-5) and the Saints (3-5) meet for the first time this season, and the top spot in the NFC South is on the line. New Orleans is a slight favorite at home after securing their first home win of the season.

Carolina is listed at +103 to beat the Saints and improve to 4-3 against NFC opponents.

Bryce Young and company lost last week, but they did move the ball on the highly respected Denver defense. The Panthers had 353 total yards against the Broncos. Young’s 257 passing yards were the fourth-most allowed by Denver this season.

New Orleans has allowed 236.6 passing YPG, the fifth-most in the NFL. If Young can pick up where he left off last week, the Panthers will end their losing streak and secure a crucial division win.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Dallas Cowboys

Christian McCaffrey 2+ TDs Scored (+170)

Christian McCaffrey is a -334 favorite to score at least once against the Cowboys this Sunday. He has limited value in anytime TD scorer props, but CMC offers +170 odds in 2+ TD scorer markets.

CMC got straight to it 😤

📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/waNLM4blJR

— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) November 8, 2026

McCaffrey has three multi-TD games this year, including two in his last three starts. He also faces a favorable matchup: The Dallas Cowboys.

Dallas has been the second-worst rushing defense in the league this year. They allow 147.4 YPG and 5.0 YPC. The Cowboys have allowed 11 rushing TDs, tied for the fourth-most, including nine to RBs.

Overall, running backs have scored 12 touchdowns against Dallas. McCaffrey’s workload has decreased, but he still sees over 17 touches per game, which should be enough to score twice on a weak Cowboys defense.e upset at home.eds a bounce-back game after last week’s dud, and he will power the Chiefs to a season sweep of their rivals on Sunday.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Mike Gesicki 1+ TD and Bengals Win (+210)

Cincinnati (6-2) hosts Pittsburgh (6-2) on Sunday Night Football with the top spot in the AFC North up for grabs. The Steelers won the first meeting, but the Bengals are favored at home in this matchup.

Joe Burrow has been rolling lately, and TE Mike Gesicki has been an underrated reason why. He did not score in Madrid last week, but Gesicki had scored once in each of the Bengals’ previous five games. Overall, Gesicki has scored in six of Cincy’s eight games this season.

Gesicki only has 19 catches all season, but at 6’6, he is a mismatch in the red zone. He scored against Pittsburgh in Week 3 and will find the end zone again this week, helping the Bengals even the season series with their division rival.

The Market’s Best NFL Pick for Week 10

The market is favoring the Jaguars more than any other team in Week 10. Jacksonville is listed at -500 or shorter odds for its matchup against Tennessee this weekend.

“They have reason to believe they are as good as anybody.”@DanGrazianoESPN and @SaturdayJeff weigh in on the Jacksonville Jaguars’ recent acquisitions 🏈 pic.twitter.com/m8Gr7RHeox

— Get Up (@GetUpESPN) November 10, 2026

A win would put the Jags one step closer to securing the AFC South. Divisional matchups can be tough, though, and Tennessee had a bye last week to prepare for this Week 10 game. The Titans offense has improved lately, thanks in large part to their running game.

Jacksonville has only allowed 89.3 rushing YPG, the fifth-fewest in the league. However, that number has grown lately, with the Jags allowing 100+ rushing yards in three straight games. Tennessee had 299 rushing yards in the two games leading up to the Titans’ bye.

The Rams are also heavily favored this week, at -450 or shorter odds. LA faces the Cardinals, who beat them in Week 6. Arizona will be on its QB3, rookie Carson Beck, but the Rams will be without both Puka Nacua (knee) and Davante Adams (hamstring).

Key Factors to Watch in NFL Week 10

• Adjust for trade deadline moves: It was an active trade deadline in the NFL, and bettors must adjust their expectations after many teams made major moves.
• Younger players will see more playing time: Not every team could be a buyer at the deadline. Teams that sold major pieces could replace them with younger players who have limited experience in the NFL.
• Multiple QB injuries in Week 9: Trades were not the only thing that shook up rosters this week. Multiple teams suffered major QB injuries in Week 9, forcing backups to start in Week 10.

What Are Your Week 10 NFL Predictions?

The Jaguars have the best odds to win this week, but my top pick is for Kansas City (-3.0) to cover as a road favorite against the Falcons. Check out the guide above for more of my NFL Week 10 picks.

(Photo by AP Photo/Scott Kinser)