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Reviews of Online Gambling Sites 2026 NFL MVP Odds: Josh Allen Remains Favored Despite Recent Skid
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Josh Allen’s hot start to the 2026 NFL season has helped cement him as the MVP favorite. Allen is available at +250 or shorter odds at most sportsbooks to win his second MVP award this season.
I discuss the latest MVP odds in the betting guide below. Also, I will tell you why I am taking a different AFC quarterback to win the award this year over Allen.
2026 NFL MVP Odds Tracker
The top NFL betting sites provided the following updated MVP betting odds.
| Player | Lucky Rebel | BetUS | BetOnline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | +250 (was +675) | +250 (was +700) | +235 (was +650) |
| Brock Purdy | +425 (was +1700) | +400 (was +2000) | +450 (was +1800) |
| Patrick Mahomes | +700 (was +1400) | +750 (was +1100) | +650 (was +1400) |
| Lamar Jackson | +750 (was +875) | +750 (was +800) | +600 (was +1000) |
| Trevor Lawrence | +1100 (was +2500) | +850 (was +2200) | +1000 (was +2000) |
| Dak Prescott | +1400 (was +1500) | +1500 (was +1200) | +1400 (was +1200) |
| Joe Burrow | +2200 (was +925) | +1800 (was +800) | +2000 (was +850) |
| Matthew Stafford | +2200 (was +1500) | +2800 (was +1200) | +2200 (was +1200) |
| Jared Goff | +3500 | +6000 | +4000 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | +4000 | +3300 | +3300 |
| Caleb Williams | +4500 (was +1400) | +5000 (was +1400) | N/A (was +1400) |
| Drake Maye | +4500 (was +1100) | +5000 (was +1100) | +4000 (was +1200) |
| Tyler Shough | +5000 | +4000 | +6600 |
| Bo Nix | +8000 | +8000 | +7500 |
| Bryce Young | +8500 | +7000 | +7500 |
| Kenneth Walker III | +8500 | +5000 | +4000 |
The above odds were captured by staff at GamblingNerd on Monday, October 5th, 2026.
Josh Allen started the year as the MVP favorite, and he is still at the top of the odds boards after four games. However, many other QBs, such as Brock Purdy and Trevor Lawrence, have made major leaps with their high-level play. Previous contenders, including Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels, have fallen off due to early-season injuries.
The Nerd’s Verdict on NFL MVP in 2026
- Verdict: Trevor Lawrence will win MVP
- Best captured price: +1100 at Lucky Rebel
- Break-even probability: 8.33%
- Target price: +700 or longer odds
- Primary risk: 7 of Jacksonville’s last 10 games are on the road.
- Confidence: Moderate – Lawrence can gain support during a soft middle of the Jaguars’ schedule.
Why Trevor Lawrence Will Win MVP in 2026
Brock Purdy has made the biggest jump in MVP odds, moving from as long as 20-1 preseason odds to as short as 4-1 after four weeks. Purdy and the 49ers are undefeated, and he has an 11-1 TD-INT ratio.
Purdy is a strong candidate, but a challenging NFC West will make it tough to maintain his current success. Also, Purdy only receives limited credit for the team’s production given the well-known stars around him, such as Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle.
Trevor Lawrence has also made a major jump in MVP odds after the first month of the season. Lawrence opened the season between 20-1 and 25-1 odds. He is now available at odds ranging from +850 to +1100, depending on where you bet.
Lawrence and the Jaguars have a much easier path to winning their division than Purdy and company. Jacksonville is 3-1, and the rest of the division is 2-10. Lawrence has helped the Jags earn a +51 point differential, the highest in the AFC and the second-highest in the NFL.
Also, Lawrence’s success comes without big-name skill players. If he successfully turns the likes of Bhayshul Tuten and Parker Washington into stars and earns a top seed in the AFC, Lawrence will be in the MVP conversation. So far, Lawrence has received MVP votes in two of his five pro seasons.
Biggest Barriers to Lawrence Winning the MVP
Lawrence is on the fringe of being a top-5 MVP candidate, but he has a lot of work to do to actually win the award.
First and foremost, he needs to continue to help the Jaguars win games. That will be easier said than done given Jacksonville’s schedule in the second half of the year. Seven of Jacksonville’s final 10 games are on the road.
The lack of competition from within the division could also be a double-edged sword, as it weakens Lawrence’s strength of schedule.
To overcome both, Lawrence needs to play well against high-level opponents led by other MVP contenders, such as Lamar Jackson (@ Baltimore in Week 9) and Dak Prescott (@ Dallas in Week 16).
Who the Market Picks to Win NFL MVP in 2026
The market is still high on Josh Allen as an MVP contender, even though he has struggled the last two weeks.
Allen is the betting favorite for MVP across the board at sportsbooks.
| Bookmaker | Odds | Implied Win Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Lucky Rebel | +250 (was +675) | 28.57% |
| BetUS | +250 (was +700) | 28.57% |
| BetOnline | +235 (was +650) | 29.85% |
Buffalo’s QB certainly looked like the MVP through the first two games. Allen had 582 passing yards, 92 rushing yards, and nine total touchdowns in wins against the Texans and the Lions. However, he has struggled since then, including a loss to the Patriots at home in Week 4.
How Allen Can Save His MVP Campaign
Allen was the clear-cut MVP in September, but the team’s Week 4 loss to the Patriots was a wake-up call for the Bills. On the bright side, Allen has plenty of chances left to earn the MVP this year.
It starts with a prime-time matchup with the Rams in Week 5. Buffalo also has five other prime-time games, including matchups on Thanksgiving and Christmas.
Allen also needs to cut down on costly turnovers to stay atop the MVP betting market. He has turned the ball over four times in the last two weeks and has fumbled in every game this season.
He must minimize his turnovers and beat tough opponents in prime time if Allen wants to save his MVP campaign.
What Can Prevent Allen From Winning Another MVP
It was unrealistic to expect Allen to maintain his production from the first two weeks. However, he needs to play much better than he has the last two weeks if he wants to remain the MVP favorite.
| Statistic | Weeks 1 and 2 | Weeks 3 and 4 |
|---|---|---|
| Passing Yards | 582 (291 YPG) | 457 (228.5 YPG) |
| Completion Percentage | 66.67% | 66.10% |
| Passing TDs | 5 | 1 |
| Rushing Yards | 92 | 26 |
| Rushing TDs | 4 | 3 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 4 |
Allen needs to play more like he did the first two weeks than he has the last two weeks. That will be easier said than done given the Bills’ upcoming schedule:
- Week 5 @ LA Rams (2-2)
- Week 6 @ Las Vegas Raiders (3-1)
- Week 8 vs. Baltimore Ravens (3-1)
- Week 9 @ Minnesota Vikings (4-0)
- Week 10 @ New York Jets (2-2)
Beating tough opponents could help Allen prove he is the MVP. However, the tough schedule could also lead to the Bills racking up losses and tanking Allen’s MVP campaign before Thanksgiving.
Factors that Impact NFL MVP
The NFL does not have officially defined criteria for the Most Valuable Player award. However, the award’s history provides insight into what voters value most.
“Value” of the Position
The word “value” in MVP has become a point of emphasis in recent years. This renewed focus on a player’s “value” has helped one position in MVP voting: quarterbacks.
Since 2000, only four non-quarterbacks have won the MVP award, and all four were running backs. The other 22 winners this decade have all been QBs, including the last 13 straight winners.
In other words, QBs have a major leg up on every other position in the mind of MVP voters. That bias is reflected in the betting lines, too.
Media Voters and All-Pro Rankings
A large majority of the QBs who have won MVP have also been named First-Team All-Pro that season. Steve McNair (2003) and Josh Allen (2024) are the only QBs this century to win MVP without being First-Team All-Pro.
The connection should not be surprising, as the same 50 voters who decide the MVP also choose the All-Pro teams.
Staying up to date with AP voters throughout the season can provide insight into which players they are leaning toward picking for MVP.
Individual and Team Success
To win MVP, a player has to have both team and individual success. Sam Darnold, for instance, has had plenty of team success the last two years but has failed to put up MVP numbers himself.
Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow has had the opposite problem. Burrow led the league in passing attempts, completions, yards, and TDs in 2024 but only finished fourth in MVP voting after the Bengals missed the playoffs.
Who Is Your 2026 NFL MVP Prediction?
Josh Allen remains the market’s pick to win MVP, but I think Trevor Lawrence has a better shot at winning the award. Lawrence will continue to climb the odds boards and compile MVP-level stats against a favorable schedule in the next few weeks.
(Photo from AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)
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