Top Poker Sites 
Best Online Sports Betting Sites 
Claim the Best Online Gambling Bonuses 
The Best Slots Games to Play Online 
Reviews of Online Gambling Sites 2026 NFL Odds & Predictions for Week 4: Baltimore a Risky Bet to Cover
Affiliate Disclosure: Some links on Gambling Nerd are affiliate links. If you use them to sign up or deposit, we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. These rewards help fund new guides, but they never influence our verdicts. Our recommendations are based on independent research and our own ranking system.
Two teams, Baltimore and Minnesota, are favored by double digits but missed the cut for my list of the best NFL Week 4 odds and predictions. Multiple underdogs are on my list this week, though, including the Jaguars and the Cowboys.
Continue reading to see all of NFL Week 4 picks and where to find the best odds for each wager.
NFL Week 4 Odds Snapshot
The best NFL sportsbooks provided the following odds for the top Week 4 matchups.
| Week 4 Matchup | Lucky Rebel | BetUS | BetOnline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee Titans vs. Baltimore Ravens | Titans (+450) Ravens (-650) | Titans (+475) Ravens (-650) | Titans (+476) Ravens (-650) |
| New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills | Patriots (+250) Bills (-300) | Patriots (+245) Bills (-295) | Patriots (+241) Bills (-295) |
| New York Jets vs. Chicago Bears | Jets (+150) Bears (-175) | Jets (+150) Bears (-175) | Jets (+153) Bears (-175) |
| Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cincinnati Bengals | Jaguars (+125) Bengals (-145) | Jaguars (+120) Bengals (-145) | Jaguars (+120) Bengals (-140) |
| Dallas Cowboys vs. Houston Texans | Cowboys (+125) Texans (-145) | Cowboys (+125) Texans (-145) | Cowboys (+125) Texans (-145) |
| Arizona Cardinals vs. New York Giants | Cardinals (-122) Giants (+102) | Cardinals PK Giants PK | Cardinals (-117) Giants (-103) |
| Miami Dolphins vs. Minnesota Vikings | Dolphins (+410) Vikings (-585) | Dolphins (+455) Vikings (-610) | Dolphins (+452) Vikings (-610) |
| Detroit Lions vs. Carolina Panthers | Lions (-185) Panthers (+160) | Lions (-190) Panthers (+163) | Lions (-190) Panthers (+165) |
All of the odds above are accurate as of September 29th, 2026.
The Nerd’s Top NFL Picks for Week 4
See the table below for my favorite Week 4 NFL picks.
| Matchup | Bet | Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills | Buffalo Bills to win | -295 | BetOnline |
| New York Jets vs. Chicago Bears | New York Jets to cover +3.0 | +100 | Lucky Rebel |
| Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cincinnati Bengals | Jacksonville Jaguars to win | +125 | Lucky Rebel |
| Dallas Cowboys vs. Houston Texans | Dalton Schultz anytime TD scorer | +150 | BetUS |
| Arizona Cardinals vs. New York Giants | Cardinals to cover -1.0 | -115 | BetOnline |
| Detroit Lions vs. Carolina Panthers | Jahmyr Gibbs 2+ TDs scored | +100 | BetUS |
New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills
- Verdict: Bet on Buffalo to win
- Best captured price: -295 at BetOnline
- Break-even probability: 74.68%
- Target price: -400 or shorter odds
- Primary risk: Buffalo had five turnovers last week against the Chargers.
- Confidence: High – Bills have scored the most points; New England is tied for the fewest.
Buffalo Bills (-295)
The Bills survived a five-turnover performance in Week 3 to beat the Chargers and stay undefeated. Josh Allen and company are -295 favorites at BetOnline to improve to 4-0 this week against the visiting Patriots.
Buffalo needs to cut down on its turnovers to beat New England this weekend, but that should not be an issue. The Bills had zero turnovers in the first two weeks, and the Pats have forced only three turnovers all year.
Also, New England’s offense has struggled to replicate last year’s success. The Pats are averaging 12.0 PPG, tied for the league’s fewest, while Buffalo is scoring a league-high 33.7 PPG.
I expect this divisional game to be closer than the touchdown spread suggests, but Buffalo’s high-powered offense should get the win.
New York Jets vs. Chicago Bears
- Verdict: Bet on the Jets to cover
- Best captured price: +3.0 (+100) at Lucky Rebel
- Break-even probability: 50.00%
- Target price: +3.0 or more points
- Primary risk: New York’s run defense has not been tested this year.
- Confidence: Moderate – Chicago is starting a backup due to Caleb Williams’ hamstring injury.
New York Jets +3.0 (+100)
Lucky Rebel has the Jets listed at even money to cover +3.0 points against the Bears this weekend. Chicago, led by QB3 Case Keenum, shocked the Eagles on Monday Night Football. It is unclear if Keenum will be the starter again or if Tyson Bagent will take the reins, but oddsmakers are favoring the Bears anyway.
The Jets offense is much improved, averaging nearly 330 total YPG after managing just 23.6 YPG last year. They have also been better about scoring, improving from 17.6 to 21.3 PPG.
New York’s run defense will be the key to the Jets’ chances of covering the spread. Chicago leads the NFL with 184.3 rushing YPG. New York has only allowed 262 rushing yards, the seventh-fewest through three weeks.
If the Jets’ run defense can slow down the Bears’ rushing attack, New York can keep this game within a field goal.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cincinnati Bengals
- Verdict: Bet the Jacksonville Jaguars to win
- Best captured price: +125 at Lucky Rebel
- Break-even probability: 44.44%
- Target price: +200 or shorter odds
- Primary risk: Jacksonville’s offense struggled in its one road game so far.
- Confidence: Moderate – Cincinnati allowed 400+ yards of offense against Pittsburgh last week.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+125)
Jacksonville has been dominant at home this season, outscoring the Browns and Patriots by a combined total of 69-16. Unfortunately, the Jaguars offense did not travel well in Week 2, as they lost 20-13 in Denver.
Trevor Lawrence and the Jags are +125 road underdogs this week against the Bengals (2-1), who are coming off a 30-27 loss in Pittsburgh.
The Bengals beat the Jaguars 31-27 when they met in Week 2 last year. Jacksonville can flip the script this year by exploiting the same defensive issues that allowed the Steelers to gain over 400 yards against the Bengals last week, including 138 on the ground.
Jacksonville will win this game if they keep the pocket clean for Lawrence and lean heavily on RB Bhayshul Tuten.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Houston Texans
- Verdict: Bet on Dalton Schultz to score a TD
- Best captured price: +150 at BetUS
- Break-even probability: 40.00%
- Target price: Even money or longer odds
- Primary risk: WR Nico Collins may return this week and cut into Schultz’s targets.
- Confidence: High – Schultz has been the Texans’ best receiving option this year.
Dalton Schultz Anytime TD Scorer (+150)
Houston is 0-3, but oddsmakers have the Texans favored over the visiting Cowboys in Week 4. This should be a close game, which is why my top bet for this matchup is an anytime TD scorer prop instead of a moneyline pick.
TE Dalton Schultz leads the Texans in
- Targets – 25
- Receptions -19
- Receiving yards – 205 yards
- YAC – 89 yards
Schultz has done everything for Houston, except score a TD. He is listed at +150 at BetUS to finally find the end zone this weekend. The Cowboys’ defense has allowed three touchdowns to TEs this season, creating an ideal matchup for Schultz to score this weekend.
Arizona Cardinals vs. New York Giants
- Verdict: Bet Arizona to cover
- Best captured price: -1.0 (-115) at BetOnline
- Break-even probability: 53.49%
- Target price: -2.5 or shorter
- Primary risk: Arizona is traveling across the country for this game.
- Confidence: Moderate – The Giants have key injuries on both sides of the ball.
Arizona Cardinals -1.0 (-115)
The closest line of the week is between the Cardinals and the Giants. BetOnline has Arizona listed as a 1.0-point road favorite over New York this week.
New York has already suffered major injuries on both sides of the ball. QB Jaxson Dart tore his MCL and his meniscus in Week 2, and DE Brian Burns tore his ACL last week. Both are out for the rest of the season.
Arizona, on the other hand, is relatively healthy and averaging 21.0 PPG, nearly a touchdown more than New York (15.3 PPG). With Burns out, the Giants will have even more trouble slowing the Cardinals down.
Detroit Lions vs. Carolina Panthers
- Verdict: Bet on Jahmyr Gibbs to score twice
- Best captured price: +100 at BetUS
- Break-even probability: 50.00%
- Target price: -125 or better odds
- Primary risk: Carolina’s defense will sell out the stop Gibbs.
- Confidence: Moderate – Gibbs has six TDs in three games so far.
Jahmyr Gibbs 2+ TDs Scored (+100)
BetUS has Lions’ RB Jahmyr Gibbs listed at +100 to score twice this week against the Panthers on Sunday Night Football. Gibbs has six scores so far, four rushing and two receiving, and has scored at least once in every game.
Gibbs has 83 touches so far, including 18 receptions. His dual-threat ability makes it easy to get the ball in his hands, and his speed makes him a threat to score on any given play.
Carolina is an ideal opponent for a Gibbs’ 2+ TD bet. The Panthers have allowed a league-high 193.3 rushing YPG. RBs have averaged 5.86 YPC against Carolina so far this year and have scored four total TDs.
Gibbs’ heavy involvement against a weak run defense makes him a great bet to score twice on SNF.
The Market’s Best NFL Pick for Week 4
The market is favoring two teams by double digits this weekend. Baltimore is the biggest moneyline favorite at -650 against the Titans. Minnesota is also a prohibitive favorite at -585 against Miami.
Tennessee and Miami are both winless and rank near the bottom of the league in nearly every offensive category. For instance, the Titans are tied for the lowest points scored with 36 (12.0 PPG), and the Dolphins have the next fewest with 37 (12.3 PPG).
Despite their favorable matchups, the Ravens and Vikings are not locks to win this weekend.
Baltimore has struggled to hold onto big leads in recent years. Since 2019, the Ravens have blown 15 double-digit leads, the most in the NFL.
Minnesota is also risky due to its offensive injuries. QB Kyler Murray returned from his concussion last week, but WR Justin Jefferson is dealing with an ankle injury that will limit him this week.
Key Factors to Watch in NFL Week 4
- Follow backup QB moves: the Giants traded for JJ McCarthy, potentially signaling a QB switch soon. Also, the Buccaneers currently have just one active QB on their roster, undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels.
- Monitor WR injury updates: Multiple star WRS, including Justin Jefferson (ankle) and Puka Nacua (hip), are questionable this week and can change their matchups significantly if they play.
- Watch for the backdoor cover: Teams like Baltimore, which have a history of blowing big leads, are risky bets to cover large spreads.
What Are Your Week 4 NFL Predictions?
The Ravens (-650) have the best odds to win in Week 4, but I am staying away from their ATS odds as they return from a trip to Rio in Week 3. Instead, my top pick this weekend is Buffalo (-295) to beat New England in an important AFC East matchup.
Come back next week for more expert NFL odds and predictions.
(Photo by AP Photo/Fernando Llano)
Contact Shaun 
