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Making the right NFL Survivor picks each week can be easier said than done. Your goal is to pick a winner each week, but you cannot choose the same team twice. If your chosen team loses, then you are eliminated from the tournament.
BetOnline is offering a $500,000 prize pool for its NFL Survivor contest this season. Keep reading to learn more about the contest, the best strategies for Survivor pools, and my top Survivor picks for Week 1.
BetOnline’s $500K Survivor Pool
I picked BetOnline for my Survivor Pool this season because it is offering a massive $500k prize pool to the winner. Also, entry is cheap at just $30 for your first ticket. The price per ticket decreases the more you buy, and since I entered during the Early Bird special, I received a free ticket.
Overall, I entered four tickets into BetOnline’s Survivor contest. The contest consists of 19 weeks, with Thanksgiving week being split into two sets of games. I will be using a different strategy for each ticket to see which one takes me the farthest in the contest.
Read our BetOnline review to learn more about this sportsbook.
Current NFL Week 1 Odds
You must enter your picks each week on BetOnline to stay in the contest. Here are the current odds BetOnline has for Week 1 of the NFL season as of the end of August.
- Patriots vs. Seahawks (-3.5)
- 49ers vs. Rams (-4.0)
- Browns vs. Jaguars (-7.5)
- Buccaneers vs. Bengals (-4.0)
- Ravens (-3.5) vs. Colts
- Falcons vs. Steelers (-3.0)
- Bills vs. Texans (PK)
- Bears (-2.5) vs. Panthers
- Jets vs. Titans (-2.5)
- Saints vs. Lions (-7.0)
- Cardinals vs. Chargers (-10.0)
- Dolphins vs. Raiders (-3.5)
- Commanders vs. Eagles (-4.5)
- Packers vs. Vikings (-1.5)
- Cowboys (-3.0) vs. Giants
- Broncos vs. Chiefs (-2.5)
Top Week 1 Survivor Picks According to the Market
According to the top NFL betting sites, the Chargers are the best bet to win in Week 1. LAC is favored by 10 points for its season opener against the Cardinals.
Other heavy favorites to consider include the Jaguars (-7.5) and the Lions (-7.0), who are both laying at least a TD against the Browns and Saints, respectively.
Spread odds can also tell you which matchups to avoid in a given week. Houston and Buffalo, for instance, are listed as a pick’em for their Week 1 showdown. Green Bay and Minnesota also have a small spread for their opening-day NFC North clash.
The Nerd’s NFL Survivor Week 1 Picks
Here are my official NFL Survivor picks for Week 1 of the 2026-27 season.
| NFL Survivor Strategy | Week 1 Pick |
|---|---|
| High EV Team | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| Biggest Point Spread Favorite | Los Angeles Chargers |
| Picking Against a Bad Team | Las Vegas Raiders |
| Best NFL Teams | Detroit Lions |
High EV: Jacksonville Jaguars
My High EV pick for Week 1 is Jacksonville. The Jaguars have the second-highest point spread at -7.5 for their matchup against Cleveland.
While many players will pick the Chargers, the overall biggest favorite, you can get a better EV by choosing the Jags instead. They have an extremely high win percentage but a lower pick percentage, creating a high EV.
For their part, the Browns should not be a threatening opponent. Cleveland’s defense will be above average, but its offense will struggle. Also, the Browns won only two road games last year: Week 12 against the Raiders and Week 18 against the Bengals.
If Trevor Lawrence can avoid making too many mistakes, Jacksonville should cruise to a win in Week 1. The Jaguars have a good defense of their own, which should shut down the Browns’ offense from start to finish in Week 1.
Biggest Favorite: Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers are far and away the biggest favorite in Week 1 at -10.0. They are at home and playing one of the worst teams in the league, Arizona.
LA has a talented roster, but it also faces a tough schedule. As good as they are, there are not many weeks you can pick the Chargers as confidently as you can in Week 1.
The Chargers were 6-3 at home last season, while Arizona was 2-7 on the road. Also, the Cardinals did not beat any of their AFC opponents last year. Their last win against an AFC team came in Week 15 of the 2024 season, when they beat the Patriots.
Picking Against a Bad Team: Las Vegas Raiders
The Dolphins have the second-longest odds to win the Super Bowl entering the 2026 season at +40000, according to BetOnline. Miami opens the season on the road against Las Vegas.
Picking the Raiders is risky after they were tied for worst record in football last year. On the other hand, they have a new head coach and a QB upgrade. Also, Miami has one of the worst rosters in the NFL.
This will likely be one of the few times the Raiders are a viable pick in Survivor this season. Picking them in this spot helps you save better teams for later in the year.
Best NFL Teams Pick: Detroit Lions
The Rams have the best odds to win the Super Bowl going into Week 1. However, they have a long trip in Week 1 and are playing a divisional opponent. Many other top Super Bowl contenders, including the Bills and Seahawks, also face tough matchups.
With that in mind, I am picking the Lions for my Best NFL Teams ticket. Detroit finished last in the division last year, but they are favored to win the NFC North going into Week 1.
The Lions face a favorable matchup, too, with the Saints coming to town. New Orleans was great at the end of the year last season, winning four of its last five games. However, the Saints have been ravaged by injuries, including the loss of rookie Jordyn Tyson to a hamstring injury for the foreseeable future.
Also, despite their struggles last year, the Lions were 5-3 at home. New Orleans was not a great road team, going 3-6 away from the Superdome. The Saints should be better this year, but it is unlikely they will take down the Lions in Detroit in Week 1.
Best NFL Survivor Strategies
There are many strategies you can try for Survivor Pools. The most basic ones involve picking the biggest favorite each week or picking against the worst team in the league as often as possible. Avoiding divisional matchups and teams on short weeks are also common methods.
More advanced Survivor strategies account for factors such as:
- Win Probability: How likely a team is to win based on their betting odds.
- Future Value: The value a “good” team will have later in the season.
- Pick Percentage: The percentage of other players who have picked that team
- Expected Value (EV): An average of Win Probability and Pick Percentage
Using multiple tickets to diversify your picks is another great tactic. Planning your picks ahead of time can also help you make a deep run in your Survivor pool contests.
My 2026 NFL Survivor Strategies
The four strategies I am using for my Survivor picks this year are:
- Picking a team with a high EV:Balancing win percentage and pick percentage.
- Backing the biggest favorite of the week: Choosing the team with the highest point spread.
- Picking against a bad team: Selecting a team playing the Cardinals, Dolphins, Browns, Titans, or Jets. All five have +25000 odds or longer to win the Super Bowl at BetOnline.
- Backing the best teams early: Riding the best teams early to make a deep run.
Each strategy is different, but they can lead to similar picks in some weeks.
Factors to Consider for Week 1
Picking the right team in Week 1 can be easier said than done in Survivor leagues. It is the first real action of the year, and there are many factors to consider. Some factors that can influence your Week 1 strategy include:
- Travel: Some teams, like the Patriots, are traveling across the country for their Week 1 matchups. No teams are traveling farther than the Rams and 49ers, though, who are opening the season in Australia.
- Injuries: Lingering injuries from training camp and the preseason often affect season openers across the league.
- Rest vs. Rust: Many teams rest their starters for most, if not all, of the preseason. This can lead to sloppy performances early in the season.
- Divisional Games: Divisional matchups are notoriously hard to predict. There are five such matchups in Week 1 this year.
2026 NFL Survivor Picks
Here are all of my picks for each strategy so far this season.
| NFL Week | High EV | Biggest Favorite | Playing a Bad Team | Best NFL Teams |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | Jacksonville Jaguars | Los Angeles Chargers | Las Vegas Raiders | Detroit Lions |
What Are Your Week 1 NFL Survivor Picks?
Making the right NFL Survivor picks each week can help you win bragging rights and thousands in guaranteed prizes at BetOnline. I break down my Survivor strategies and Week 1 predictions in the guide above.
Create your BetOnline account today to enter the contest before Week 1 kicks off. Come back each week to see my Survivor picks and let me know your favorite strategies for winning NFL Survivor pools in the comments below.
(Photo by AP Photo/Katie Chin)
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