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Nobel Peace Prize Odds (Does Trump Stand a Chance?)

Some oddsmakers have President Donald Trump near the top of the lines in the latest Nobel Peace Prize odds. It is no secret that Trump has long sought the coveted award, but is he really a contender this year?

I cover the latest Nobel Peace Prize betting lines below. Also, I take a closer look at President Trump’s odds and whether he has a chance at winning the Peace Prize.

Nobel Peace Prize Odds Snapshot

Here are the latest odds for betting on the Nobel Peace Prize.

Winner	BetUS Odds	BetOnline Odds
Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms	+275	+500
Donald Trump Sr.	+300	+1800
Save the Children	+500	+600
Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières)	+600	+650
United Nations Relief & Works Agency for Palestine (UNRWA)	+700	+1600
Yulia Navalnaya	+700	+800
Volodymyr Zelenskyy	+700	+1600
Sir David Attenborough	+800	N/A
Julian Assange	+800	N/A
Pope Leo XIV	+800	+2000
International Court of Justice	+900	+1100
Mykola Kuleba/Save Ukraine	+1000	+1200

The odds above are accurate as of September 24th, 2026.

Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERR) are the consensus favorite to win the Nobel Peace Prize. BetUS has President Trump as a close second at +300, just behind Sudan’s ERRs (+275). However, BetOnline has Trump all the way down at +1800 odds.

The Nerd’s Top Nobel Peace Prize Pick

• Verdict: Bet on the International Court of Justice
• Best captured price: +1100 at BetOnline
• Break-even probability: 8.33%
• Target price: +800 or longer odds
• Primary risk: Laureates tend to be people, not organizations.
• Confidence: Moderate – The ICJ is critical to the UN’s ability to maintain peace between its member states.

International Court of Justice (+1100)

The ICJ is the judicial arm of the United Nations and has 11-to-1 odds of winning the Nobel Peace Prize. Multiple branches and offices of the UN have won the prize in the past, including:

• 1954 – Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees
• 1965 – United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF)
• 1969 – International Labour Organization
• 1981 – Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees
• 1988 – United Nations Peace-Keeping Forces
• 2005 – International Atomic Energy Agency
• 2007 – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
• 2020 – World Food Programme

Others, such as Cordell Hull, have won the award for their work with the UN, and the UN itself won in 2001. If you count the awards won by the League of Nations, then the UN’s 10 previous Nobel laureates are the fourth most of any country. Only the US (23), UK (12), and Switzerland (11) have more.

The ICJ was nominated this year for its rulings and provisional measures involving the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. Its role in helping to prevent armed conflicts worldwide also makes the ICJ an ideal candidate for the Nobel Prize. Giving the ICJ the prize this year would also be fitting as it is the ICJ’s 80th anniversary.

Trump Nobel Peace Prize Odds

• Verdict: Bet on Trump to win
• Best captured price: +1800 at BetOnline
• Break-even probability: 5.26%
• Target price: +1000 or longer odds
• Primary risk: Trump has feuded with the Nobel committee in the past.
• Confidence: Low – Trump’s war with Iran has disrupted global oil markets

Donald Trump Sr. (+1800)

BetUS has Trump listed at +300 to win the Nobel, the second-shortest odds overall. However, BetOnline offers Trump at 18-1 odds, which is likely more accurate for his actual chances of winning the award.

https://twitter.com/Mollyploofkins/status/2102819458616348856

For starters, the new war with Iran has wreaked havoc on global oil markets. Trump also illegally invaded Venezuela and kidnapped Nicolás Maduro earlier this year.

Trump has also publicly feuded with the Nobel Committee after they passed him over in previous years.

Also, for what it is worth, Trump failed to make the cut for the Peace Research Institute Oslo’s (PRIO) shortlist for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize.

The Market’s Pick for the Nobel Peace Prize

Oddsmakers at top sportsbooks agree that Sudan’s ERRs are the top pick to win the Nobel Peace Prize this year.

• BetUS = +275
• BetOnline = +500

For the best return, bet on the ERRs at BetOnline at 5-1 odds.

Some of the most important work happens far from the headlines.

President @BillClinton presented this year’s Clinton Global Citizen Awards to three organizations representing thousands of frontline responders caring for people in their communities every day:

🔹@superhumans_com… pic.twitter.com/WXSqeb5WX7

— Clinton Foundation (@ClintonFdn) September 23, 2026

Sudan’s ERRs are a community-led network that has helped save millions of lives since 2023. Their efforts include medical care, psychosocial care, communal kitchens, infrastructure repairs, evacuation support, and more.

The civil war in Sudan is considered one of the most severe humanitarian crises in the world. Giving the Nobel to the ERRs could help bring attention to the conflict and resolve it more quickly.

Sudan’s ERRs were recently honored by the Clinton Foundation as one of the winners of the Clinton Global Citizen Award.

Prediction Markets Pick for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize

Traders at Polymarket also have the ERRs as the favorite, with a 16% chance that they win. The Women’s International League for Peace and Freedom has the next-best odds at 12%, followed by Doctors Without Borders and Mykola Kuleba (Save Ukraine) at 10% each.

Biggest Factors for Nobel Peace Prize Betting

Understanding the Nobel Prize voting process and what the committee prioritizes will help you make the right pick when betting on this year’s winner.

Nobel Peace Prize Voting Process

There are several steps to the Nobel Peace Prize voting process, including:

1. Qualified nominators submit their recommendations to the committee before the deadline in February.
2. The secret members of the Norwegian Nobel Committee review nominees to create a short list.
3. Advisers continue to review the short-listed nominees.
4. The committee votes on the winning Nobel Peace Prize laureates. A unanimous vote is preferred but not required for a winner.

Pro-Democracy/Anti-Oppression

Reviewing recent Nobel Peace Prize laureates can help identify what the committee prioritizes. Recent winners include:

• 2025 – María Corina Machado for promoting democratic rights in Venezuela.
• 2024 – Nihon Hidankyo for its efforts to eliminate nuclear weapons.
• 2023 – Narges Mohammadi for fighting the oppression of women in Iran.
• 2022 – Ales Bialiatski, Memorial, and Centre for Civil Liberties for documenting war crimes and human rights abuses.
• 2021: Maria Ressa and Dmitry Muratov for efforts to safeguard freedom of speech.

As you can see, voters favor nominees who make efforts to protect and/or promote democracy. Nominees who have worked directly to combat oppression are also popular with voters.

What Are Your Nobel Peace Prize Predictions?

The latest Nobel Peace Prize odds have Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms as the overall favorite to win the award. However, I think the International Court of Justice (+1100) is a better pick given its efforts to maintain global peace and promote democracy. Plus, it’s historically been a top contender/winner of the award.

Odds on BetUS close Saturday the 26th, while BetOnline’s odds close on Monday the 28th.

(Photo from AP Photo/Mouneb Taim)