Arbitrage betting is the closest you’ll get to a guaranteed strategy for sports betting success. It involves wagering on all sides of the same event while trying to ensure a profit. We mention trying because things don’t always work out perfectly, especially if you’re new to the matter.
That said, we’d like to discuss more about arbitrage betting (a.k.a., “arbing”) and how you can use it effectively. You’ll learn about the arbing process, tips, examples, and potential drawbacks.
Arbitrage betting is when you wager on all possible outcomes of a betting line in such a way that guarantees a profit.
It requires you to find price discrepancies at different sportsbooks and exploit them. You’ll also need to figure out what bet sizes to place on each outcome using an arbitrage calculator.
Once you find these market inefficiencies and calculate the right wager sizes, you’ll win money no matter which outcome wins.
Here’s a basic arbitrage betting example:
Arbitrage bets aren’t normally this easy because bookmakers move their lines in near unison. A big reason why is because they don’t want to leave arbing opportunities. The key, though, is that you’re looking for those rare times when sportsbooks aren’t on the same page.
One common misconception about arbitrage betting is that it’s illegal. The truth is that arbing is perfectly legal, but it’s against sportsbooks’ policies.
Bookmakers will ban you if they suspect you’re a successful arbitrage bettor. However, you won’t face legal action anywhere for winning through arbitrage bets.
How Arbitrage Betting WorksWe’d like to go over each step of the process behind finding and exploiting arbing opportunities. This way, you’ll know exactly where to begin and what to consider before placing arbitrage bets.
A standard sports betting line has larger odds behind the favorite versus the underdog. An example would be the New York Knicks -200 (favorite) versus the Chicago Bulls +160 (underdog).
This difference ensures a theoretical profit margin (5.13% in our example) for the sportsbook. But what if the underdog has larger odds than the favorite?
Let’s switch the odds to New York -160 and Chicago +200. The margin will still be 5.13%, only in your favor this time.
The next step is to find a situation like the arbitrage betting example above where you can earn a profit.
Your initial thought might be to pull up multiple sportsbooks and check out lines for popular markets. Although not totally impossible, manually finding arbitrage bets through moneylines, spreads, and totals in popular sports is tough.
We’ll discuss what markets (e.g., player props) and methods (e.g., software) to focus on later. Our main point, though, is that you must start by locating a line/event and odds that offer a profitable arbitrage bet.
Finding the right odds for a game is only one part of the equation. You also need to figure out how much to wager on each outcome.
This process begins with deciding how much total you can put on the game. The next part involves performing calculations to determine what wager sizes will maximize your winnings. The easiest way to do this is with an online arbitrage betting calculator.
In case you want the math behind the calculations, lets go over an example and the relevant formula:
We’ll pause to mention that implied probability is an outcome’s chances of winning based on the bookmaker’s odds. The implied odds formula for the underdog is 100/(odds + 100), and for the favorite it’s odds/(odds + 100).
Now, we’ll continue the example:
Let’s plug these numbers into the arbitrage betting formula:
We admit that arbitrage betting math is long and semi-complicated—especially if you’re new to implied probabilities. But again, you can use an arbing calculator to speed up the process.
The last step is to place your arbitrage bets on all outcomes before the line moves. If one of the sportsbooks moves their odds before you make the wagers, then your arb could be lost.
This part is easier when you’ve already registered and deposited with the bookmakers that you’re checking for arbitrage wagers.
Common Arbitrage BetsYou can use arbitrage betting with different types of wagers, including two-way, three-way, and middle bets. Here’s a closer look at how this strategy applies to each.
A two-way wager only features two teams/outcomes, such as the Seattle Seahawks vs. the LA Rams. These are the easiest markets to find arbs because you’re dealing with just two outcomes and sportsbooks.
All arbitrage betting examples up to this point have been two-way markets, so we won’t go into any more detail here.
A three-way (1×2) betting line accounts for the possibility of a match ending in a tie. It’s most common in soccer, where roughly 20–30% of matches end in draws.
Here’s a quick example of three-way arbitrage betting:
You plug the odds into an arbitrage betting calculator.
These wagers have an extra degree of difficulty because you’re dealing with three outcomes and betting sites. You may also have to spend time with a margins calculator figuring out what kind of three-way odds lead to arbs.
Middle betting involves wagering on one team, then betting on the opposing team if the line moves in a certain direction. Here’s a quick example involving point spreads in a non-arb situation:
The idea is to create a “middle” where you can essentially win two bets, while minimizing risk when you don’t hit middle ground.
This strategy is most commonly used with point spreads and totals, but it can be effective when arbing moneylines. Here’s an example:
Two ways to find arbitrage bets include doing so manually yourself or using software. The latter approach is preferable, considering how much time software programs can save you.
These programs scan many online sportsbooks throughout the industry looking for arbing opportunities. They’ll alert you to available arbs and where you should bet to take advantage.
You also want to consider which markets are the best candidates for arbitrage betting. Bookmakers are much more precise when staying with each other on lines involving major leagues like the NBA, NFL, and MLB.
Better targets include player and team props, which tend to see more discrepancies between oddsmakers. For example, sportsbooks might be in bigger disagreement, or simply not move lines in time, on an assists prop involving Orlando’s Franz Wagner.
Live arbitrage betting can also lead to unique opportunities. The fast pace of in-play wagering can sometimes create large discrepancies among sports betting sites.
Tips for Making Profits with Arbitrage BettingArbing can be a sure thing, but only with the right approach. The following arbitrage betting tips will help you experience success more often.
While you should lock in arbs quickly, you’ll also want to double check that the odds are definitely profitable before betting. We suggest rechecking your wager sizes too before submitting a ticket. This way, you don’t rush into a situation that’s not really an arb and lose money.
Arbitrage betting rarely leads to huge margins on your side. Most of the time, you’ll have somewhere between a 1–3% edge after finding arbs. You either need to grow your bankroll and bet big to capitalize or be happy with small wins.
You likely won’t have time to register, deposit, and place arb bets because lines often move. We recommend planning ahead by signing up and depositing at multiple bookmakers so you’re ready. You might even play around with software beforehand to see if certain betting sites offer arbs more often.
Sportsbooks are notorious for limiting and banning successful arbitrage bettors. One thing you can do to help prevent this is to make small deposits in the beginning. While you eventually need larger stakes to truly profit, a new account with a $1,000+ first deposit will draw more scrutiny than a $50 first deposit.
Arbitrage betting can work, but your success depends on different factors. You’ll need to stay under the radar—at least in the beginning with new sportsbooks—to avoid getting banned or limited.
You also have to work quickly so lines don’t move while you’re trying to complete an arb. Small profit margins are another factor to consider before you dive into this method.
So while it’s possible to make money with arbitrage betting, you should be realistic and learn the right strategies.
Assuming you’re ready to start looking for arbitrage bets, check out our favorite sports betting sites. These bookmakers are not only good spots for arbing, but they also have plenty of bonuses and the all-important trust factor.
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