NHL Hart Trophy Odds: Who Will Win MVP in 2025-26?

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With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror and about a month remaining before the playoffs, we’re into the home stretch of the 2025-26 NHL season.
There have been many surprises in the NHL standings this year, but when it comes to the Hart Trophy odds, it’s the usual suspects still standing at the top: Nathan MacKinnon, Nikita Kucherov, Macklin Celebrini, and Connor McDavid.
McDavid has overtaken the league’s scoring race, but MacKinnon is the one leading the Hart Trophy odds heading into the final few weeks of the season.
I’ll provide my analysis and best bets for the 2025-26 NHL Hart Trophy race below.
2025-26 Hart Trophy Odds
Below are the updated Hart Trophy odds via BetUS:
| Player | Hart Trophy Odds | Player | Hart Trophy Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon | -220 | Nikita Kucherov | +250 |
| Macklin Celebrini | +750 | Connor McDavid | +800 |
| Connor Bedard | +20000 | Mikko Rantanen | +30000 |
The Hart Trophy race has been led by the same four players for most of the 2025-26 campaign, and that trend is holding steady heading into the final month of the regular season.
Nathan MacKinnon has fallen behind Connor McDavid by a handful of points in the league’s scoring race, yet he maintains the lead in the Hart Trophy odds at -220. The Colorado Avalanche star was trading at -300 in January, but his 34 points this calendar year rank fifth among all skaters – and nearly 20 points behind Nikita Kucherov, who paces the NHL with 52 points in his last 23 games.
Kucherov was trading at +6000 in January, +650 in February, and now just +250 in March, thanks to his ridiculous 2.26 point-per-game pace since the calendar flipped to 2026. The Tampa Bay Lightning forward has won the Art Ross Trophy as the NHL’s top point getter in each of the past two seasons and still has a good chance to make it three straight.
San Jose Sharks sophomore Macklin Celebrini remains in the thick of the Hart Trophy race at +750, but he seems like a true longshot at this point with just 27 points in his last 21 contests. Celebrini was trading at +470 last month. McDavid has seen his Hart Trophy stock rise from +1100 to +800 since February, but the Edmonton Oilers captain has just one goal in his last eight games. McDavid leads the NHL with 108 points, but the Oilers’ relatively mediocre tea
Nathan MacKinnon (-220)
With 20 games remaining in the season for Colorado, MacKinnon maintains a sizable lead in the Hart Trophy odds.
The Avs star paces the league with 43 goals, while Colorado holds a seven-point lead in the Presidents’ Trophy race as well as the best goal differential in the NHL at +83.
The Avalanche are heating up again with five straight wins and seven victories in their last eight contests, with MacKinnon carrying an active seven-game point streak while notching nine points during his team’s five-game run.
Colorado has a relatively easy schedule for the rest of the season, with 10 combined games against the Winnipeg Jets, Chicago Blackhawks, Vancouver Canucks, Calgary Flames and St. Louis Blues. Those clubs make up five of the six worst teams in the NHL, which should help MacKinnon pad his stat line.
All signs point to Colorado waltzing to its second Presidents’ Trophy in six seasons, which will also help MacKinnon’s case as the league’s MVP.
Nikita Kucherov (+250)
The Lightning have quietly had another excellent season despite dealing with injuries to key players, and are in contention for their first Atlantic Division and Eastern Conference title since 2018-19. Kucherov has been Tampa Bay’s steady motor throughout the season, and the 2018-19 Hart Trophy winner has only improved as the year has gone on.
From the start of the season to December 31, Kucherov had 51 points in 35 games – tied for sixth in the NHL. Since the calendar flipped to 2026, he has a league-leading 52 points in just 23 games – 14 more than McDavid, who ranks second with 38.
The Lightning superstar has been a multi-point machine with seven points over his last two outings and 10 games with three-plus points since January 1. If he keeps this up over the next month, he’ll have a legitimate case as the league’s top player.
Macklin Celebrini (+750)
Nineteen-year-old Celebrini has been one of the NHL’s best stories of the season, but his production has slowed down while the other league leaders are picking up the pace.
Celebrini still sits fifth in scoring with 89 points in 61 games, but he’s logged just 10 points in eight contests since the start of February. Meanwhile, his Sharks are also sitting outside of a playoff spot in the Western Conference.
The Sharks sophomore will probably pick up plenty of hardware over the next two decades, but it seems highly unlikely that he takes home the Hart Trophy in 2025-26.
Connor McDavid (+800)
McDavid led all skaters at the Winter Olympics with 13 points in six games, and the Oilers captain has carried that momentum back into the NHL. McDavid is on a seven-game point streak with multiple points in five of those contests, helping him build a four-point gap over MacKinnon atop the NHL’s scoring leaderboard.
If there’s one argument against McDavid this season, it’s his reliance on the power play. McDavid leads the league with 43 power-play points, while he ranks fourth with 63 even-strength points. For comparison, the top three is comprised of his Hart Trophy competition, with MacKinnon (80) and Kucherov (72) both way ahead.
McDavid is on pace for 138 points, which would mark the second-highest total of his career. Still, he feels like a distant underdog to MacKinnon and Kucherov, who have led their teams to impressive campaigns.
Final Prediction – Who Will Win the 2025-26 Hart Trophy?
MacKinnon has been the betting favorite for the entire season, and it truly feels like it’s his Hart Trophy to lose.
The Colorado forward ranks first in goals, even-strength goals and even-strength points, as well as second in points behind only McDavid. Beyond leading the league in those categories, MacKinnon is also trending towards a historic campaign for the Avalanche.
He’s on pace for 58 goals, which would establish an Avalanche/Nordiques record for most in a season, and 140 points, which would tie his franchise mark set in 2023-24. Not to mention the Avalanche are on pace for 125 points, which would smash their team record for most in a campaign.
However, if there is one player who can turn the tables in Hart Trophy voting, it’s Kucherov. He has outscored MacKinnon by 18 points since the calendar turned to 2026, and no other skater has come particularly close to the Lightning forward over that span.
Tampa Bay is in a dogfight with Buffalo for top spot in the Atlantic Division, but if the Lightning can emerge on top while Kucherov scores 2+ points per game over the next 20 contests, he might just steal the Hart Trophy away from MacKinnon.
- Best Bet: Nathan MacKinnon -220
- Value Bet: Connor McDavid +250
Keep Up with the Hart Trophy Race
The NHL season is into the home stretch with about 20 games remaining for most clubs, but the Hart Trophy race is still up in the air with the top contenders jostling for position.
MacKinnon maintains his lead in the Hart Trophy odds at -220, with Kucherov (+250), Celebrini (+750) and McDavid (+800) rounding out the top four.
Stay up to date with the latest NHL odds and predictions throughout the season at GamblingNerd.
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