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The Vegas Golden Knights and Carolina Hurricanes are set to face off in the Stanley Cup Final, but there’s another prestigious trophy up for grabs – the Conn Smythe.
The Conn Smythe is awarded to the most valuable player through two grueling months of postseason hockey, and this year’s Stanley Cup Final is full of deserving candidates.
Forward Mitch Marner leads the Conn Smythe odds for the Golden Knights, who come into the championship series as the slight underdog, while goaltender Frederik Andersen comes in as the top candidate for the favored Hurricanes.
I’ll break down all the top contenders for the Conn Smythe Trophy, historical trends for the award, and give you the scoop on my best bets and value picks for who will win the Conn Smythe 2026.
Conn Smythe Odds 2026: Current Favorites
| NHL 2026 Playoffs Conn Smythe Trophy Odds | |
| Player | Odds (BetOnline) |
| Mitch Marner (VGK) | +200 |
| Frederik Andersen (CAR) | +225 |
| Taylor Hall (CAR) | +700 |
| Logan Stankoven (CAR) | +900 |
| Carter Hart (VGK) | +1000 |
| Jack Eichel (VGK) | +1200 |
| Jackson Blake (CAR) | +1200 |
The 2026 Conn Smythe odds have been narrowed down to two clear favorites ahead of the Stanley Cup Final: Mitch Marner (+200) and Frederik Andersen (+225). However, a lot can change through a potential seven-game series.
Marner has turned his playoff reputation upside down through the first three rounds, while Andersen has been by far the best goaltender this postseason.
Former Hart Trophy winner Taylor Hall rounds out the top three at +700, entering the championship series with a team-leading 16 points for the Canes, while his linemates Logan Stankoven (+900) and Jackson Blake (+1400) are also in the mix for playoff MVP.
How the Conn Smythe Is Won: Historical Trends
The Conn Smythe Trophy has been awarded to the MVP of the Stanley Cup Playoffs since 1965, with 53 players winning it over the past six decades.
The award is almost always handed to a player or goaltender on the Stanley Cup-winning team. In fact, a member of the losing team in the Final has claimed the Conn Smythe Trophy only six times, with the most recent instance coming in 2024 when Edmonton Oilers captain Connor McDavid won after putting up a whopping 42 points in 25 games.
Forwards account for just over half of all Conn Smythe winners, with centers claiming the award 21 times and wingers winning 10 times (51%).
Goaltender is the second-most common position to win the Conn Smythe, taking home the hardware 17 times (29%). However, Andrei Vasilevskiy (2021 w/ TBL) is the only netminder to be named playoff MVP in the past 13 postseasons.
Defensemen have won 12 times (20%), with Cale Makar being the most recent example in 2022 with the Avalanche.
Mitch Marner (+200)
If you follow the NHL, you know all about Marner’s reputation as a lackluster playoff performer throughout his first nine seasons with the Toronto Maple Leafs.
To the delight of Golden Knights fans – and dismay of the Maple Leafs faithful – Marner has finally turned the page this postseason, entering the Stanley Cup Final with a league-leading 21 points in 16 games.
It hasn’t been “empty calorie” points, either. Marner’s seven goals are one shy of his total output over the past six postseasons combined with Toronto, while his 11 primary assists lead all skaters.
The “Magician” entered the Western Conference Final as a relative longshot in the NHL playoffs MVP odds at +1200, but after posting three more points during Vegas’ four-game sweep of the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Colorado Avalanche, Marner has vaulted into pole position in the Conn Smythe race.
Frederik Andersen (+225)
The Hurricanes are a unique team in that they don’t really have any superstars. In fact, their top three point producers during the regular season – Sebastian Aho, Nikolaj Ehlers, and Andrei Svechnikov – have combined for just 23 points in 13 games this postseason.
When you look at what’s driven Carolina’s success in these playoffs, it’s largely defense – the club paces the NHL with just 1.62 goals against per game. And when you look at the man between the pipes, it’s clear why the Hurricanes have been so stingy.
Andersen boasts an incredible .931 save percentage and 1.41 goals against average through 13 games, with a 12-1 record and three shutouts. The Canes netminder enters the Final tied for the third-lowest goals against average in a single postseason among goalies with at least 10 games played, trailing only Frank Brimsek (1.25 GAA in 1939 w/ BOS) and Patrick Lalime (1.39 GAA in 2002 w/ OTT).
If he keeps up this level of play, it’ll be hard to deny him the Conn Smythe.
Taylor Hall (+700)
After recording just 48 points in 80 games this season, Hall has somehow emerged as an offensive catalyst for Carolina during this run to the Stanley Cup Final. And like Marner, Hall was not known as a playoff performer in the past, averaging just 0.65 points per game before this year.
The Hurricanes winger was an impact player in the Eastern Conference Final with four points in five games, including a goal and two assists in Carolina’s series-clinching victory.
The Canes don’t need a ton of goals to win, but someone has to put the puck in the net. If Hall has another big series, he could add a Conn Smythe – and a Stanley Cup – next to his Hart Trophy.
Best Bet: Conn Smythe Trophy 2026
The old adage says “defense wins championships,” and that’s a major reason why the Hurricanes are favored to win the Stanley Cup.
That’s also why I’m taking Andersen as my best bet to win the Conn Smythe 2026.
The Hurricanes waltzed to the Stanley Cup Final with just one loss through three series, requiring the fewest games to reach the championship series since 1987, when the NHL adopted its current best-of-seven format through all four rounds. And their dominance goes deeper than just wins and losses.
Carolina has outshot its opponents by an average margin of about 34-22 this postseason, while pacing the league by a sizable margin in both Corsi (60.63%) and Expected Goals (69.65%) shares at five-on-five. For reference, Vegas ranks eighth (48.89%) and seventh (51.27%) out of 16 teams in those respective categories.
The Canes are a well-oiled machine, and Andersen is the conductor leading the train. He has held the opposition to two goals or fewer in 12 of 13 games, while the defense in front of him has surrendered just 2.49 expected goals against per game – the lowest mark among all teams this postseason.
If the Hurricanes win their first Cup since 2006, it’ll almost certainly be on the back of another strong series from Andersen, and that’s why his price is relatively steep. He’s worth a play anywhere north of +200, but those odds will quickly shorten.
- Best Bet: Frederik Andersen +225
Value Plays and Longshots
There aren’t a ton of real Conn Smythe longshots left with just two teams remaining, but there is one name that catches my eye: Pavel Dorofeyev (+5000).
The Golden Knights winger co-leads the league with 10 goals this postseason, and he’s been getting better as the playoffs have worn on. Dorofeyev has six goals and eight points in his last seven games, and he can pop off with huge multi-goal performances, as evidenced by his hat trick in Game 5 of the First Round against the Utah Mammoth.
Dorofeyev led Vegas with 37 goals in the regular season, so he’s not a flash in the pan like a lot of other top performers this postseason. The guy knows how to put the puck in the net consistently, and if anyone can solve Andersen and lead Vegas to its second Cup in four years, it’s Dorofeyev.
He’s great value at +5000 right now, which looks like a steal compared to Marner and Andersen, who are close to even money.
Summary
We’re deep into the Stanley Cup Playoffs, and several players such as Nathan MacKinnon, Frederik Andersen and Mitch Marner have already emerged as favorites in the Conn Smythe odds.
Two rounds remain, and the value will shift quickly as the bracket narrows. Get your bets in now before the odds tighten.
Stay up to date with all the latest hockey odds and predictions at GamblingNerd so you can bet on the NHL with confidence.
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