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Eurovision 2026 Odds: Who’s Favored to Win Right Now?

Finland is the heavy favorite in the Eurovision 2026 odds market, with bookmakers pricing Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen’s entry Liekinheitin at +150 to +200 across the board. The semifinals run on May 12th, with the grand final on May 16th, and this is currently one of the most active entertainment betting markets heading into contest week.

Below, I break down the full top 10 odds table, jury vs. televote splits for every major contender, semifinal qualification odds, and my contrarian picks for where the real value might be hiding.

Here’s a closer look at the top 10 contenders, according to the current Eurovision 2026 odds:

Country	Odds
Finland	≈ +150
Denmark	≈ +550
France	≈ +550
Greece	≈ +600
Australia	≈ +800
Israel	≈ +1,200
Sweden	≈ +2,200
Italy	≈ +2,500
Romania	≈ +2,500
Ukraine	≈ +3,300

Odds are subject to change, so treat these numbers as a snapshot rather than a guarantee.

How Eurovision Betting Odds Actually Work

Eurovision 2026 odds are built primarily from two inputs: the song’s digital reception and the country’s Eurovision track record. Bookmakers start there, then adjust as the bets flow in and major developments emerge around the competition. If you’re new to reading American odds, the +150/+550 format used throughout this page shows how much a $100 bet would return in profit.

If you’re value hunting, implied probability is the only concept you need. Here’s how it applies to the current board:

• Finland is at around +150, giving them a 40% implied probability of winning
• Denmark is at around +550, giving them roughly a 15% implied probability

There are no certainties here. At later stages, weeks before the event, the odds reflect the consensus. They tell you which countries have genuine chances to win and which are there to fill space.

Finland Is the Favorite, But How Often Does the Pre-Contest Favorite Actually Win?

In the last 10 Eurovision contests, the pre-contest favorite has won just 5 times. That’s essentially a coin flip. That said, not a single contest in that stretch was won by a country whose outright winner odds sat outside the top three, so the shortlist does matter.

Eurovision Contest	Winner	Did Favorite Win?	Winner’s Odds Position
Eurovision 2025	Austria	No	2nd
Eurovision 2024	Switzerland	No	3rd
Eurovision 2023	Sweden	Yes	1st
Eurovision 2022	Ukraine	Yes	1st
Eurovision 2021	Italy	Yes	1st
Eurovision 2019	The Netherlands	Yes	1st
Eurovision 2018	Israel	No	2nd
Eurovision 2017	Portugal	No	2nd
Eurovision 2016	Ukraine	No	3rd
Eurovision 2015	Sweden	Yes	1st

Keep in mind that these reflect average odds. The biggest shifts typically happen after the first rehearsal, which can skew where each country lands heading into the final.

Jury Odds vs. Televote Odds: Why They Tell Different Stories

The jury vote and televote regularly point in opposite directions, which is why top-5 contenders in one category often land outside the top 10 in the other. The breakdown works like this:

• Jury vote: Professional juries score contestants on vocal control, originality, and live performance.
• Televote: The public weighs in, and the biggest factors are energy, meme potential, and diaspora voting.

On one end, you have professional juries valuing real vocal qualities. On the other end, the public wants nothing but energy and upbeat pop songs. That’s why the two often pull in opposite directions.

According to the televote odds, France and Australia are expected to underperform. The French typically enter with quality vocalists, while Australia doesn’t have a competitive diaspora voting base in Europe as other countries do.

Worth noting is the tight top 4 race for the jury vote. Australia, France, Finland, and Denmark are closely packed at the top, with Australia and France carrying 28% and 21% implied probability, respectively. The contest isn’t won on the jury vote alone, though. The televote carries equal weight, and that’s where the picture gets complicated.

Semi-Final Odds: Which Countries Need to Qualify First?

Twenty countries need to qualify through two semifinals before the grand final, with Finland dominating the first semifinal odds and Australia, Ukraine, and Denmark in a tight race in the second. The grand final will feature 25 countries in total: 20 qualifiers from the semifinals (10 per semifinal), the Big 4 (France, Germany, Italy, United Kingdom), and the host nation, Austria.

Beyond outright winner markets, some bookmakers also offer semifinal qualification odds.

The first semifinal is top-heavy, with Finland as the clear frontrunner. The second is far more competitive. Croatia is worth a look this year. Their entry, Lelek’s Andromeda, combines traditional imagery and strong vocals that should appeal to jury panels, and a strong diaspora base across Europe could deliver meaningful televote points on top of that. Croatia’s current qualification odds are around -500, implying roughly an 83% chance of reaching the final.

Full Contender Breakdown: Where Every Major Country Stands

Finland leads every major odds market heading into the contest, but the jury and televote splits reveal a more complicated picture for the remaining contenders. You can browse the full list of all 35 participants on the official site.

Country	Odds	Televote Position	Jury Vote Position
Finland	≈ +150	2nd	3rd
Denmark	≈ +550	11th	4th
France	≈ +550	9th	2nd
Greece	≈ +600	3rd	7th
Australia	≈ +800	10th	1st
Israel	≈ +1,200	1st	15th
Sweden	≈ +2,200	8th	6th
Italy	≈ +2,500	7th	12th
Romania	≈ +2,500	4th	10th
Ukraine	≈ +3,300	5th	8th

As noted above, no winner in the last 10 contests came from outside the top 3 in outright odds. For a full breakdown of which books are currently offering Eurovision markets, check out our entertainment betting sites guide.

Finland

All bookmakers have Finland as the favorite, and it’s down to their balance between jury-friendly composition and televote appeal. Liekinheitin sits in the top 3 in both categories, which is the clearest signal of genuine win potential.

Denmark

Søren Torpegaard Lund’s Før vi går hjem is Denmark’s entry. It draws from the same well as Croatia’s Baby Lasagna and Italy’s Maneskin, a solid all-rounder that’s likely to pull more televote points than its current 11th-place ranking suggests.

France

France enters with Monroe’s Regarde. They skip the semifinals entirely as part of the Big 4, so their odds at +550 may not move much before the final. A historically strong performer when the song fits the jury’s taste.

Greece

Ferto’s Akylas is a classic crowd-pleasing Eurovision entry built for younger audiences and social media traction. It has a real shot at beating Finland on the televote. This one is my personal favorite of the field.

Israel

Noam Bettan’s Michelle carries a massive gap between its televote and jury vote projections. If the televote underdelivers, Israel may not make the final at all. If it holds, they’re a genuine dark horse.

Contrarian Picks: Which Countries Might Be Undervalued Right Now?

Israel is the strongest case for undervalued in the current Eurovision 2026 odds. They’re priced at +1,200 as the 6th overall favorite, but they sit first in the televote category and won the popular vote last year. Strong European diaspora voting and political solidarity have historically moved their numbers in the final stages. The gap between their outright price and their televote position is as wide as anyone on the board.

Looking at the other side of the coin, France and Australia are both top-5 to win it all, largely on the strength of their jury vote projections (28% and 21% implied probability, respectively). If you listen to both songs right now, it’s easy to see why the televote rankings tell a different story. France sits 9th and Australia sits 10th in televote odds, which could leave both in trouble if the public vote doesn’t play along.

Finland is the most balanced play overall, with top-3 positioning in both the jury and televote categories. That dual-market strength is what separates them from the rest of the top 5.

When Will Eurovision 2026 Odds Change the Most?

Eurovision odds move most sharply after the first public rehearsals and again following each semifinal result. Two specific moments to watch:

• Post-rehearsal: Odds shift as soon as fans and press get their first look at how each contestant performs live. A poor staging or a standout live vocal can swing the board significantly.
• Semi-final results: Odds adjust based on both who qualifies and how convincingly they did it. A country that cruises through with strong televote numbers tends to attract money heading into the final.

Eurovision 2026 Betting Terms You Should Know

• Implied probability: The likelihood of an outcome based on the current odds
• Jury odds: Which country wins the most points from the professional jury panel
• Televote odds: Which country wins the most points from the public televote
• Outright winner odds: Which country wins the 2026 Eurovision contest
• Semifinal qualification odds: Which countries qualify for the grand final

Eurovision 2026 Odds: The Bottom Line

Finland is the most defensible bet in the field, given their top-3 placement in both jury and televote odds, the favorite has won just 5 of the last 10 contests, so the board is genuinely open, and the jury/televote split creates real value opportunities for anyone willing to dig into the individual category markets.

If you’re building a position now, Finland is the clearest anchor play, with Israel offering the most upside as a contrarian bet given their televote strength and +1,200 price.