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2025 Kentucky Derby Predictions (and Early Wagers)

Journalism has emerged as the clear favorite to win the 2025 Kentucky Derby after he cruised to victory in the Santa Anita Derby. That extended his winning streak to four races, so he is surging with momentum right now. However, he faces fierce competition from the highly-rated Sandman, Florida Derby winner Tappan Street and Japanese raider Luxor Café.

It is shaping up to be a thrilling contest, and we have provided our early Kentucky Derby predictions below. We will break down the Kentucky Derby favorites, highlight a few interesting underdogs, and discuss the best online racebook.

The Road to the Derby

The world’s finest three-year-olds have spent the spring campaign battling for a place in the Kentucky Derby 2025. The field is limited to just 20 runners, so only the very best will earn a starting berth.

The top American runners can qualify by performing well in the Road to the Kentucky Derby, a series of key build-up races. Most of those races have now concluded, so we know which horses are likely to contest the Derby.

It’s also worth noting that Luxor Cafe, who has dominated the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby, is likely to head to Churchill Downs for the big race. That could leave space for just 19 American runners.

Magnitude, the winner of the Risen Star Stakes, will miss out due to injury, so these horses currently occupy the top 20 places:

Position	Horse	Points	Earnings	Trainer
1	Sandman	129	$1,117,995	Mark E. Casse
2	Journalism	122.5	$600,000	Michael W. McCarthy
3	Rodriguez	121.25	$476,000	Bob Baffert
4	Tiztastic	119	$1,395,800	Steven M. Asmussen
5	Tappan Street	110	$619,400	Brad H. Cox
6	Sovereignty	110	$548,800	William I. Mott
7	Final Gambit	100	$446,400	Brad H. Cox
8	Coal Battle	95	$1,169,500	Lonnie Briley
9	Chunk of Gold	75	$324,400	Ethan West
10	Citizen Bull	71.25	$1,436,000	Bob Baffert
11	Owen Almighty	65	$415,310	Brian A. Lynch
12	Publisher	60	$355,000	Steven M. Asmussen
13	American Promise	45	$335,000	D. Wayne Lukas
14	Flood Zone	50	$174,993	Brad H. Cox
15	Flying Mohawk	50	$156,800	Whit Beckman
16	Grande	50	$140,000	Todd A. Pletcher
17	Getaway Car	46	$578,000	Bob Baffert
18	Madaket Road	46	$290,000	Bob Baffert
19	Built	45	$180,000	Wayne M. Catalano
20	Neoequos	40	$153,250	Saffie Joseph Jr.

These are the results so far in the biggest prep races for the Kentucky Derby:

Championship Series first-leg events:

Race	Distance	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
Risen Star	1 1/8 miles	Magnitude	Chunk Of Gold	Built	Vassimo	American Promise
Rebel Stakes	1 1/16 miles	Coal Battle	Madekat Road	Sandman	Publisher	Tiztastic
Gotham Stakes	1 mile	Flood Zone	Sand Devil	Garamond	My Mitole	McAfee
Fountain of Youth	1 1/16 miles	Sovereignty	River Thames	Neoequoes	Burnham Square	Gate to Wire
San Felipe	1 1/16 miles	Journalism	Barnes	Rodriguez	Mellencamp	Smooth Cruisein
Tampa Bay Derby	1 1/16 miles	Owen Almighty	Chancer McPatrick	Hill Road	Patch Adams	Brodeur
Virginia Derby	1 1/8 miles	American Promise	Render Judgment	Omaha Omaha	Getaway Car	Studlydoright

(1st=50 points; 2nd=25 points; 3rd=15 points; 4th=10 points; 5th=5 points).

Championship Series second-leg events:

Race	Distance	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
Louisiana Derby	1 3/16 miles	Tiztastic	Chuck Of Gold	Instant Replay	John Hancock	Built
Jeff Ruby	1 1/8 miles	Final Gambit	Flying Mohawk	Maximum Promise	Poster	Giocoso
Florida Derby	1 1/8 miles	Tappan Street	Sovereignty	Neoequos	Madaket Street	Disruptor
Arkansas Derby	1 1/8 miles	Sandman	Publisher	Coal Battle	Cornucopian	Brereton’s Baytown
Blue Grass Stakes	1 1/8 miles	Rodriguez	Grande	Passion Rules	Captain Cook	McAfee
Santa Anita Derby	1 1/8 miles	Journalism	Baeza	Westwood	Citizen Bull	Barnes
Wood Memorial	1 1/8 miles

(1st=100 points; 2nd=50 points; 3rd=25 points; 4th=15 points; 5th=10 points)

Kentucky Derby Odds and Favorites

These are the current favorites in the Kentucky Derby futures betting, with odds from BetOnline:

• Journalism (+300) | Michael McCarthy’s star colt emerged as a leading Kentucky Derby contender after clinching an impressive win in the G2 Los Alamitos Futurity in December. He then lived up to his billing by winning the G2 San Felipe at Santa Anita Park, before blitzing his rivals in the G1 Santa Anita Derby.
• Sovereignty (+500) | This highly-rated Godolphin colt won the G2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream, followed by the G3 Street Sense at Churchill Downs. He was the clear favorite for the G1 Florida Derby, but he finished second, 1 ¼ lengths behind Tappan Street. However, Sovereignty finished strong in that race, and he could fare better in the Derby if he is more alert when breaking from the post.
• Sandman (+600) |Sandman occupies the No. 1 spot in the Road to the Derby 2025 after winning the G1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn. It was his first win this year, but he appears to be on an upward curve, so he is a leading contender for the Derby. However, he has struggled at Churchill Downs, as he was comprehensively beaten in a couple of G3 races there last year.
• Citizen Bull (+2000) | The 2024 American champion two-year-old won a couple of big Grade 1 races last year, including the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Citizen Bull followed it up with a strong victory in the G3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes, so he carried a great deal of hype into his three-year-old season. However, he could only finish fourth in the Santa Anita Derby after fading in the closing stages of the race, so stamina is a concern.

Kentucky Derby Underdogs

Here are a few interesting underdogs that could spring a surprise in the Derby:

• Tiztastic is priced at +2000, despite securing a place in the big race courtesy of an eye-catching win over 1 3/16 miles in the Louisiana Derby. His performance in the Rebel Stakes was underwhelming, but he could be dangerous at Churchill Downs.
• Publisher is a +3000 outsider with BetOnline after finishing second to Sandman in the Arkansas Derby. He also finished behind Sandman in the Rebel Stakes, which doesn’t bode particularly well. However, he is certainly improving, and his pedigree is impeccable. He was sired by the legendary Triple Crown winner American Pharaoh, and he is also trained by Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen, which could be a recipe for success.
• Final Gambit has been assigned futures odds of +3000 for the Derby after winning the G3 Jeff Ruby by 3 ½ lengths earlier in March. He defied morning line odds of 15-1 to secure that win, courtesy of a last-to-first rally. Final Gambit won’t carry much hype into the race, but he could spring a surprise at the Kentucky Derby.

Our Predictions for the Kentucky Derby 2025

These are our top predictions for the Kentucky Derby:

The Kentucky Derby Will Be Here Before You Know It

We are now just weeks away from the big race. You’ll find Kentucky Derby odds on all the leading contenders at BetOnline, so you can get your fixed-odds bets in early. Pari-mutuel wagering will also be available on the day of the race, including the win, place, show, exacta, trifecta, and various other betting options.

Sign up with BetOnline now to claim up to $250 in free bets, with no strings attached. You can also claim a $25 risk-free bet on the Kentucky Derby, plus a daily 9% racebook rebate, so it’s a great option for anyone making Kentucky Derby predictions this year.