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2025 MLB Cy Young Odds & Predictions

Summer is in full swing, and we’re officially into the second half of the 2025 MLB season.

The 2025 Cy Young odds are becoming more defined with each passing day and have really been narrowed down to just a few frontrunners in both the American League and National League, led by Tarik Skubal in the AL and Paul Skenes in the NL.

Without further ado, here are my 2025 MLB Cy Young predictions, favorites, and dark horse picks heading into July.

Top Arms So Far in 2025

There was plenty of hype from fans and oddsmakers alike for both Skubal as well as Skenes heading into the season. Both pitchers have definitely delivered through the first half as they stand atop their respective leagues according to our 2025 Cy Young Odds as of July 4.

Skubal, who won the AL Cy Young last year, holds a 10-2 record – tied with Max Fried for the most wins among all AL pitchers. The Detroit Tigers ace also ranks fourth in ERA (2.15), first in WHIP (0.83), first in K/9 (11.4), and second in WAR (4.0) among that cohort.

If Skubal can keep up his current pace, he could become the first pitcher to win back-to-back AL Cy Young awards since Hall of Famer Pedro Martinez in 1999 and 2000.

Skenes has been similarly impressive in the NL, leading all pitchers in ERA (2.03) while also ranking second in WHIP (0.92) and tied for first in WAR (4.4).

The Pittsburgh Pirates have not given Skenes much help when he’s taken the mound, reflected by his 4-7 record, but that shouldn’t be too much of a mark against the 23-year-old sophomore in NL Cy Young voting.

AL Cy Young Favorites

The 2025 AL Cy Young favorites are down to a three-horse race entering July, led by Skubal (-270) and followed by Garrett Crochet (+700) as well as Hunter Brown (+700).

The hierarchy hasn’t changed since last month, as Skubal has only further solidified his position as the frontrunner according to Bovada’s AL Cy Young odds.

Player	AL Cy Young Odds	Player	AL Cy Young Odds
Tarik Skubal (DET)	-270	Hunter Brown (HOU)	+700
Garrett Crochet (BOS)	+700	Jacob deGrom (TEX)	+800
Max Fried (NYY)	+1600	Framber Valdez (HOU)	+3500
Joe Ryan (MIN)	+7500	Bryan Woo (SEA)	+7500
Kris Bubic (KC)	+7500	Carlos Rodon (NYY)	+8000
Drew Rasmussen (TB)	+8000	Chris Bassitt (TOR)	+15000
Seth Lugo (KC)	+15000	Nathan Eovaldi (TEX)	+15000
Logan Gilbert (SEA)	+15000	Kevin Gausman (TOR)	+15000

Tarik Skubal (-270)

Skubal came into June as the clear AL Cy Young favorite at -150 and went a perfect 5-0 last month to give himself a nice little boost atop the 2025 Cy Young odds.

The left-hander was nearly untouchable over those five outings, posting a 1.89 ERA, two scoreless starts, and capping it off with 13 strikeouts and just one hit allowed in a seven-inning outing against the Twins on June 29.

Skubal has allowed one earned run or fewer in five of his last seven starts, while holding his opposition off the scoreboard completely in four of those games. The Tigers’ ace has also not suffered a loss since April 2 while going 10-0 during that stretch and helping Detroit surge to the top of the AL standings.

It’s hard to envision a world in which Skubal does not walk away with the AL Cy Young award at season’s end, especially if the Tigers challenge for the AL pennant.

Garrett Crochet (+700)

Crochet has flown a bit under the radar in the AL Cy Young race, but the Boston Red Sox starter certainly deserves his flowers as we pass the midway point of the season. He was +750 to win the award in June and has enjoyed a slight bump heading into July.

The southpaw sits sixth in ERA (2.34), second in K/9 (11.2), tied for fifth in WAR (3.5), and first in innings pitched (115.1) among all AL starters.

Crochet also had an undefeated month of June, going 4-0 over six starts while posting a solid 2.68 ERA and leading the majors with 55 strikeouts.

He had a couple of rocky starts against the New York Yankees and Cincinnati Reds, where he allowed a combined nine earned runs over 12 innings, but Crochet gave up just three earned runs combined over his four other outings.

Hunter Brown (+700)

Brown’s breakout season continued in June as he surged from +800 to +700 according to our AL Cy Young odds.

The Houston Astros ace posted a minuscule 1.19 ERA in June as he allowed just 13 hits, two homers, and four earned runs over five starts. He then picked up another victory against the Chicago White Sox last Wednesday to improve to 9-3 on the season.

Brown’s emergence in the AL Cy Young race shouldn’t come as much of a surprise, though, as the 26-year-old leads the majors with a stingy 1.82 ERA this season. He also ranks fourth in the AL in WHIP (0.90), fourth in K/9 (10.9,) and first in WAR (4.1).

Things will definitely get interesting down the stretch if Brown can keep up this pace for another month or two.

NL Cy Young Favorites

The NL Cy Young race was relatively open-ended in June with Skenes leading the pack at +110, but we’ve seen it settle into a two-horse race between the Pirates’ ace and Zack Wheeler of the Philadelphia Phillies as we enter the second half of the season.

Skenes still owns the betting edge, but Wheeler has put himself in a position to contend for his first Cy Young award.

Player	NL Cy Young Odds	Player	NL Cy Young Odds
Paul Skenes (PIT)	-150	Zack Wheeler (PHI)	+150
Logan Webb (SF)	+1200	Cristopher Sanchez (PHI)	+1800
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD)	+3000	Ranger Suarez (PHI)	+4500
MacKenzie Gore (WSH)	+4500	Andrew Abbott (CIN)	+5000
Robbie Ray (SF)	+6000	Freddy Peralta (MIL)	+6000
Sonny Gray (STL)	+7000	Jesus Luzardo (PHI)	+8000
Nick Pivetta (SD)	+9000	Hunter Greene (CIN)	+9000
Kodai Senga (NYM)	+10000	Dylan Cease (SD)	+10000

Paul Skenes (-150)

Skenes was favored to win the NL Cy Young at +400 before the season began, crept up to +110 in June, and now holds a commanding lead as the NL Cy Young favorite at -150.

The Pirates pitcher put up a tidy 2.05 ERA in June, allowing just four earned runs over his first four starts. His last start didn’t go quite as well, however, as the Milwaukee Brewers rocked him for four runs in just four innings of work.

Still, Skenes leads the NL in ERA (2.03), sits second in WHIP (0.92), and is tied for first with Wheeler in WAR (4.4).

The only thing that could potentially hinder the 2024 NL Rookie of the Year from winning his first Cy Young award is how bad his team has been this season. The Pirates sit dead last in the NL Central while Wheeler’s Phillies are challenging for an NL East title.

But as of early July, the oddsmakers still favor the 23-year-old sophomore.

Zack Wheeler (+150)

Wheeler remains in hot pursuit of his first Cy Young award after finishing second to Chris Sale in 2024 and second to Corbin Burnes in 2021. The Phillies starter is putting up the most impressive statistical campaign of his career, and this could be his best shot yet.

He posted a ridiculous 0.58 ERA in June after surrendering just two earned runs through five starts and holding the opposition off the board in each of his last three outings – a span of 19 straight innings.

That insane stretch has helped Wheeler rank second in ERA (2.27), first in WHIP (0.91), first in strikeouts (136), second in K/9 (11.4), and tied for first in WAR (4.4) among NL starters.

The 35-year-old is also getting some love from FanGraphs as he leads the NL in Cy Young Points (48.1) and FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (71.3).

2025 Cy Young Odds and Our Picks

Skubal and Skenes were the betting favorites in June, and the overall picture hasn’t changed much as we head into July. What intrigues me, though, is how much momentum some other guys have built over the last month.

Brown’s trajectory is particularly interesting as he leads all AL starters in ERA by a wide margin and plays for a strong Astros team that should challenge for a pennant. FanGraphs has him as the AL leader in Cy Young Points (52.6) with a slight edge over Skubal (52.3).

At +700, I see Brown as the best value play in the AL Cy Young race currently.

Jacob deGrom has also entered the fray as a potential dark horse for the AL Cy Young at +900. The Texas Rangers ace owns a 2.13 ERA, tied for second best in the AL, to go along with a tidy 0.89 WHIP, which ranks third.

Wheeler is obviously the big story in the NL – could he pull off the upset against Skenes?

The 35-year-old veteran is favored by FanGraphs and was the best pitcher in the majors last month. Another strong month for Wheeler, coupled with a slip-up from Skenes, could cause a major shakeup in the NL Cy Young odds down the stretch.

But if you’re looking for a long shot, Logan Webb deserves some love. According to FanGraphs, the San Francisco Giants starter ranks third in NL Cy Young Points (43.5) and second in FIP Adjusted Cy Young points (71.1), just behind Wheeler (71.3).

Webb leads the NL with 14 quality starts, sits fifth in ERA (2.61), tied for seventh in K/9 (10.1), and tied for 10th in WAR (2.5).

At +1200, Webb has a lot of ground to make up on Skenes and Wheeler, but the advanced metrics say he’s got a chance.

Keep an Eye on the Races

We’re past the midway point of the MLB season, but there’s still a ton of baseball to play as pitchers jostle for positioning in the Cy Young race.

Stay up to date on the 2025 Cy Young odds with GamblingNerd.com as we keep you updated with fresh MLB Cy Young predictions throughout the rest of the season.