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2025 MLB Cy Young Odds & Predictions

We’re well into the dog days of summer as we enter the final two months of the MLB season.

With regards to the 2025 Cy Young race, it’s really been narrowed down to two competitors in each league: Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet in the American League, plus Paul Skenes and Zack Wheeler in the National League.

I’ll break down the 2025 MLB Cy Young odds heading into August, analyze the AL and NL Cy Young favorites, and provide some longshot picks that could still put themselves in the mix down the stretch.

Top Arms So Far in 2025

There have not been many surprises atop the MLB Cy Young race in 2025 as the early favorites have maintained their positions heading into the final two months.

Tarik Skubal opened as the leader in the AL Cy Young odds at the start of the season, and he maintains that position in the first week of August, coming in as a massive -800 favorite. The Detroit Tigers ace has earned his position atop the AL Cy Young race, leading all AL starters in ERA (2.18), WHIP (0.83), K/9 (11.6), and WAR (5.6).

Skubal looks poised to become the first pitcher to win consecutive AL Cy Young awards since Hall of Fame pitcher Pedro Martinez did so with the Boston Red Sox in 1999 and 2000.

It’s also been a pretty steady season for Paul Skenes as he’s separated himself as the -220 favorite according to our NL Cy Young odds. The Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher paces all NL starters in ERA (2.02), WHIP (0.92) and WAR (5.4), while his 154 strikeouts rank third.

With a modest 6-8 record heading into August, Skenes could become just the second pitcher in MLB history to win a Cy Young award with a losing record, following former Los Angeles Dodgers closer Eric Gagne, who went 3-4 in 2003.

AL Cy Young Favorites

As we approach the home stretch of the MLB season, the 2025 AL Cy Young race has been narrowed down to just to names: Tarik Skubal (-800) and Garrett Crochet (+375).

At this point, it’s Skubal’s race to lose as he leads the AL in virtually every major category. 

Odds via BetOnline.

Player	AL Cy Young Odds	Player	AL Cy Young Odds
Tarik Skubal (DET)	-200	Garrett Crochet (BOS)	+150
Nathan Eovaldi (TEX)	+1800	Jacob deGrom (TEX)	+4500
Hunter Brown (HOU)	+5500	Joe Ryan (MIN)	+6000
Framber Valdez (HOU)	+7000	Max Fried (NYY)	+7500
Carlos Rodon (NYY)	+10000	Bryan Woo (SEA)	+10000
Chris Bassitt (TOR)	+15000	Kris Bubic (KC)	+15000
Seth Lugo (KC)	+15000	Logan Gilbert (SEA)	+15000
Kevin Gausman (TOR)	+15000	Jack Flaherty (DET)	+20000

Tarik Skubal (-200)

Skubal has only further solidified his case for a second straight AL Cy Young as we head into the final two months of the season. The Tigers ace was a -150 favorite to win the award in June, jumped up to -270 in July and now comes into August at a whopping -800 according to our AL Cy Young odds.

July was smooth sailing for the 28-year-old, who posted a 1.82 ERA over four starts while also representing the AL in the All-Star Game. Skubal’s first start of August was not up to his usual standard as he gave up three earned runs to the Phillies over seven innings on Saturday, but he did record 10 K’s as well as his first win since June 29.

Skubal’s Tigers also find themselves in the midst of a pennant race, sitting with a 66-49 record and just one game back of the Toronto Blue Jays for the best mark in the AL at the time of writing.

As long as Skubal keeps pitching relatively well and the Tigers keep winning, he should cruise to a second straight Cy Young.

Garrett Crochet (+700)

Crochet has flown a bit under the radar in the AL Cy Young race, but the Boston Red Sox starter certainly deserves his flowers as we pass the midway point of the season. He was +750 to win the award in June and has enjoyed a slight bump heading into July.

The southpaw sits sixth in ERA (2.34), second in K/9 (11.2), tied for fifth in WAR (3.5), and first in innings pitched (115.1) among all AL starters.

Crochet also had an undefeated month of June, going 4-0 over six starts while posting a solid 2.68 ERA and leading the majors with 55 strikeouts.

He had a couple of rocky starts against the New York Yankees and Cincinnati Reds, where he allowed a combined nine earned runs over 12 innings, but Crochet gave up just three earned runs combined over his four other outings.

Garrett Crochet (+150)

Boston Red Sox ace Garrett Crochet comes into August as the only true challenger to Skubal in the AL Cy Young race, sitting second in the AL Cy Young odds at +375.

The southpaw has done everything in his power to keep up with the reigning AL Cy Young winner as he enters August on an impressive run that includes six straight wins and a minuscule 1.73 ERA over four starts in July.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xSEac0G_CGw&pp=ygUPZ2FycmV0dCBjcm9jaGV0

Crochet did not allow more than two earned runs in any of his four starts last month, highlighted by a complete game shutout against the Tampa Bay Rays on July 12. He got off to a solid start in August as well, giving up just two runs over seven innings against the Kansas City Royals on Tuesday.

He ranks second in the AL in ERA (2.24), seventh in WHIP (1.07), first in strikeouts (183), third in K/9 (11.1) and second in WAR (4.6).

While it’s unlikely for Crochet to overtake Skubal, we’ve still got two months of baseball to play and anything could happen. If you’re looking to make a late-season betting play, Crochet probably has the best value in the AL.

NL Cy Young Favorites

The NL Cy Young award began to shape up as two-horse race between Skenes and Wheeler in July and it’s only been further intensified over the past month. Skenes enters August as the -220 favorite according to our NL Cy Young odds, while Wheeler trails close behind at +155.

In fact, this race has been so close that Wheeler briefly overtook Skenes as the betting favorite midway through July.

Player	NL Cy Young Odds	Player	NL Cy Young Odds
Paul Skenes (PIT)	-500	Zack Wheeler (PHI)	+400
Cristopher Sanchez (PHI)	+800	Matthew Boyd (CHC)	+3000
Andrew Abbott (CIN)	+5000	Logan Webb (SF)	+6500
Robbie Ray (SF)	+10000	Sonny Gray (STL)	+10000
Ranger Suarez (PHI)	+10000	Freddy Peralta (MIL)	+6000
Nick Lodolo (CIN)	+10000	Clay Holmes (NYM)	+15000
Nick Pivetta (SD)	+15000	Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD)	+15000
MacKenzie Gore (WAS)	+15000	Dylan Cease (SD)	+15000

Paul Skenes (-400)

Skenes was the best pitcher in the majors through July, posting a ridiculous 0.67 ERA over five starts while also representing the National League at the Midsummer Classic.

The Pirates ace did not allow a single earned run in four of his five starts in July, pitching a combined 22 scoreless innings in those outings. Skenes did have a misstep in his first start of August, though, as the Rockies rocked him for four earned runs in just five innings – his worst performance since late June.

Still, Skenes leads all NL starters in ERA and WHIP while ranking second in WAR after his near-perfect July gave him a nice boost atop the NL Cy Young odds.

The 23-year-old finished third in NL Cy Young voting last season en route to being named the NL Rookie of the Year. Barring a late-season upset, Skenes should go home with some hardware this season as well.

Zack Wheeler (+400)

After allowing just two earned runs over five starts in June, Wheeler took a step back in July as he posted a 3.71 ERA over four appearances.

The Philadelphia Phillies starter began July by giving up just one run to the Reds over nine innings but was rocked for four runs by both the Yankees and Padres later that month. Wheeler’s struggles have continued into August as the Tigers go to him for nine hits and three earned runs on Saturday.

Regardless, the 35-year-old remains in hot pursuit of his first Cy Young award, ranking fifth in ERA (2.64), first in WHIP (0.92), first in strikeouts (182), second in K/9 (11.7) and third in WAR (5.0) among NL starters.

Wheeler is also getting a ton of love from FanGraphs, who project him to finish the season with 109.9 FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points, second only to Skenes (117.4).

We’ve seen Wheeler finish as the Cy Young runner-up in 2024 and 2021 – will this finally be the year that he breaks through to win his first award?

2025 Cy Young Odds and Our Picks

We’ve seen some swings in the Cy Young odds throughout the season, but two things have remained constant: Skubal continues to lead by a wide margin in the AL, while Skenes maintains an edge in the NL.

There’s really no reason to bet against Skubal in the AL Cy Young rac,e but at -800, there’s also not a ton of betting value on the Tigers ace. For that reason, Crochet looks like the only real option at +375.

The Red Sox starter is not out of the race by any means, but he will need to outpitch Skubal for the remaining two months. Skubal has potentially shown some signs of slowing down as well, giving up three or more earned runs in two of his last four starts.

Crochet is still a significant long shot, though, especially if you’re looking at FanGraphs. Their model has Skubal leading in FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points by an eight-point margin, while he’s projected to finish nearly 20 points ahead of Crochet.

The NL Cy Young race is a bit more interesting with Skenes and Wheeler in a pretty tight race, while there’s also another dark horse in the mix.

Skenes does have the statistical advantage for now and that’s backed up by FanGraphs. Skenes’ 91.5 FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points lead Wheeler (81.5) by 10, while his 117.4 projected points are also tops in the NL.

At -220, there’s still a decent bit of value on Skene,s and I think he’s a pretty safe pick with just two months to play. The Pirates’ sophomore has a lot of hype behind him following his sensational rookie year, and he hasn’t disappointed in 2025.

If you’re looking for a big payout, though, we should go back to the Phillies – not for Wheeler, but for his teammate Cristopher Sanchez at +1600.

The 6-foot-6 southpaw has emerged as one of the best starters in the majors this season thanks to a ridiculous stretch that began back in mid-June. Sanchez has held the opposition to one run or less in seven of his last eight starts while going 5-1 over that span.

He also leads the NL in WAR (5.7), ranks third in ERA (2.40), and FanGraphs has him at 82.7 FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points, second only to Skenes.

If you’re looking for a dark horse in the NL, Sanchez is your best bet.

Keep an Eye on the Races

The 2025 MLB Cy Young race is going down to the wire as we enter the final two months of the season, but there’s still plenty of meaningful baseball to be played.

Find all the latest news about the 2025 Cy Young odds at GamblingNerd.com as we keep you updated with fresh MLB Cy Young predictions throughout the rest of the season.