• MLB

2025 MLB Cy Young Odds & Predictions

The MLB season is coming down to its final weeks, and with that, so too is the 2025 MLB Cy Young race.

Both Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal are running away in their respective leagues, but there are a couple of other contenders that could still throw a wrench into the mix.

Keep reading for my breakdown of the 2025 MLB Cy Young odds as we head into the final month of the season.

Top Arms So Far in 2025

Paul Skenes has been favored to win the NL Cy Young award since the odds opened ahead of the 2025 season and the Pittsburgh Pirates ace has certainly delivered on the hype.

The 2024 NL Rookie of the Year opened the season at +300 according to our NL Cy Young odds and now heads into September as a runaway -20000 favorite.

Skenes leads the MLB with a 1.98 ERA and is the only pitcher in the majors with a mark under 2.00. He’s also tied for tops in the NL in both WHIP (0.94) and strikeouts (195), while he ranks sixth in K/9 (10.1) and first in WAR (6.9).

With Philadelphia Phillies veteran Zack Wheeler now ruled out for the season with a shoulder injury, there’s seemingly no doubt now that Skenes will cruise to his first NL Cy Young award.

Tarik Skubal has also separated himself from the pack in the AL Cy Young race, although Garrett Crochet is at least keeping things interesting.

Skubal won the 2024 AL Cy Young award and has stood atop the AL Cy Young odds for most of this season as well. His edge has only increased heading into September as he leads the pack in the AL at -2000 according to our AL Cy Young odds.

The Tigers ace tops the AL in ERA (2.18), WHIP (0.87), K/9 (11.1), and WAR (6.3), while his 216 strikeouts rank just behind Crochet for first place.

Crochet will look to do the improbable by overtaking Skubal for the AL Cy Young award in the final few weeks of the season, though that currently looks like a very tall task. The Red Sox southpaw was +375 in August according to our AL Cy Young odds but comes into September at +700 after starting the month on the wrong foot.

Crochet ranks third in ERA (2.67), eighth in WHIP (1.08), first in strikeouts (218), second in K/9 (11.0), and tied for third in WAR (5.1) among AL starters.

AL Cy Young Favorites

The AL Cy Young award has been shaping up as a two-horse race for a while now between Skubal (-2000) and Crochet (+700), but a rocky start to September for the Red Sox ace has hurt his chances significantly.

Odds via BetOnline.

Player	AL Cy Young Odds	Player	AL Cy Young Odds
Tarik Skubal (DET)	-2000	Garrett Crochet (BOS)	+1200
Jacob deGrom (TEX)	+7500	Hunter Brown (HOU)	+7500
Max Fried (NYY)	+10000	Bryan Woo (SEA)	+10000

Tarik Skubal (-2000)

Skubal started off August with a bit of a wobble as he gave up 10 earned runs over his first three starts of the month, but the reigning AL Cy Young winner settled in through his last three outings. He’s allowed just one earned run through his last 20 2/3 innings to solidify his position as the clear AL Cy Young favorite.

The Tigers ace has also helped his club take a commanding 8.5-game lead atop the AL Central, while Detroit is also in the running for the AL pennant, just behind Toronto.

Skubal leads all AL starters in almost every major category and looks poised to become the first player to snag consecutive AL Cy Young awards since Pedro Martinez did so with the Red Sox in 1999 and 2000.

Garrett Crochet (+1200)

Crochet was making up some ground on Skubal in the AL Cy Young odds, but a rough start to September has hurt his chances. The left-hander was rocked for nine hits, four home runs, and seven earned runs by the Cleveland Guardians on September 2 – by far his worst start of the season.

Crochet was solid in August, though, as he posted a 3.19 ERA over five appearances and allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of those starts.

Could Crochet still pull off the upset? He and Skubal will likely pitch three or four more times this season. If Crochet can regain his July form – when he posted a 1.73 ERA over four outings – he might still be able to make this an interesting race.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xSEac0G_CGw&pp=ygUPZ2FycmV0dCBjcm9jaGV0

NL Cy Young Favorites

The NL Cy Young race was heating up in July as Wheeler looked like he had a real shot to challenge Skenes for the award. However, a season-ending injury for Wheeler has catapulted Skenes to a massive -50000 favorite, all but guaranteeing the 24-year-old his first Cy Young award.

Wheeler’s teammate, Cristopher Sanchez, has remained in the hunt, and he looks like the only real longshot option for the NL Cy Young.

Player	NL Cy Young Odds	Player	NL Cy Young Odds
Paul Skenes (PIT)	-500	Cristopher Sanchez (PHI)	+1500
Freddy Peralta (MIL)	+4000	Logan Webb (SF)	+10000
Matt Boyd (CHC)	+10000	Robbie Ray (SF)	+10000
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD)	+12500	Nick Pivetta (SD)	+15000

Paul Skenes (-50000)

Skenes was good, not great, in August, but it really didn’t matter once Wheeler went down with a shoulder injury. The NL Cy Young award was always going to come down to those two, and the Pirates ace is now the last man standing.

The sophomore posted a solid 2.91 ERA over six starts in August but really heated up towards the end of the month, allowing just three earned runs across his last three outings. Skenes then started September with a bang, pitching six scoreless innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers last Thursday while allowing just three baserunners in the ballgame.

The 23-year-old has the best ERA in the majors and could become the first starter to finish a season with an ERA under 2.00 since Justin Verlander in 2022. To add another feather to his cap, Skenes could also become the youngest starter to achieve the feat since 20-year-old Dwight Gooden posted a 1.53 ERA with the New York Mets way back in 1985.

Cristopher Sanchez (+1500)

Wheeler went down with a season-ending injury last month, but another Philadelphia Phillies pitcher has emerged as a dark horse in the NL Cy Young race. Enter Cristopher Sanchez.

The southpaw has been on a steady rise in the NL Cy Young odds since June and now stands as the closest betting favorite behind Skenes at +1900.

Sanchez posted a solid 3.03 ERA over six starts in August and has given up just two earned runs over his last two starts – a stretch of 14 innings. The Dominican ranks third in ERA (2.60), seventh in WHIP (1.12), fifth in strikeouts (186), 10th in K/9 (9.5) and second in WAR (6.7) among NL starters.

Sanchez will likely finish as runner-up to Skenes but it’s been a fantastic campaign for the 28-year-old, who’s established himself as one of the best arms in the majors over the last two seasons.

2025 Cy Young Odds and Our Picks

With only a few weeks of baseball left to play before the postseason, the 2025 Cy Young race is pretty much locked up in both the AL and NL. Skenes will almost certainly cruise to his first career Cy Young in the NL, while it would take a catastrophic collapse for Skubal to squander his second straight AL Cy Young award.

In terms of betting, there isn’t much value to be had on either of the leaders with Skenes (-50000) and Skubal (-2000) standing as enormous favorites. If you’re still looking to get in on the action, your best value plays are Sanchez in the NL and Crochet in the AL. Both pitchers were my dark horse picks in August, and that holds in September.

Sanchez is a significant longshot at +1900, but most advanced metrics place him as a close second in the NL Cy Young race behind Skenes. FanGraphs has Sanchez at 105.3 FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points, right behind Skenes (118).

The same can be said for Crochet in the AL, although the books are giving him somewhat tighter odds at +700. The Red Sox ace has 103.5 FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points according to FanGraphs, second only to Skubal at 120.2.

Both Sanchez and Crochet will need to be virtually perfect in order to overtake Skenes and Skubal at this point, but a lot can happen over the course of three or four starts.

Keep an Eye on the Races

The 2025 MLB Cy Young race comes to a close in just a few weeks as Skenes and Skubal look to cruise to their respective awards.

Stay up to date with all the latest MLB news, odds, and predictions throughout the rest of the season and playoffs at GamblingNerd.com.