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2025 MLB Cy Young Odds & Predictions

We’re a couple of months into the 2025 MLB season, and a handful of pitchers have begun to make their cases as early Cy Young favorites.

2024 AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal is off to a hot start once again with the Detroit Tigers and is currently favored to claim the award for the second straight season, while Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes is the NL Cy Young favorite heading into June.

Keep reading for my 2025 MLB Cy Young predictions as I break down the betting favorites, dark horses and potential value plays to keep an eye on this season.

Top Arms So Far in 2025

The early 2025 Cy Young odds are littered with some familiar faces like Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes, as well as some new names such as Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

Speaking of familiar faces, Max Fried is also in the mix once again as he’s off to a near-perfect 7-1 start with the New York Yankees. As of June 1, the 31-year-old southpaw ranks fourth among all AL starters in ERA (1.92), 10th in WHIP (0.97), and tied for fifth in WAR (2.4).

Skubal, the reigning AL Cy Young winner, has also made a strong case for himself statistically. The Tigers’ ace enters June with a 5-2 record to go along with some eye-popping strikeout numbers as he leads the AL with 11.8 K/9. Skubal also ranks seventh in ERA (2.26), first in WHIP (0.79), and second in WAR (2.8).

Moving over to the NL, Yamamoto has impressed early in his sophomore season with the Los Angeles Dodgers, leading all starters in ERA (1.97) and WHIP (0.91) while sitting sixth in K/9 (10.5) and tied for seventh in WAR (2.0).

Betting favorite and fellow sophomore Skenes isn’t too far behind as his 2.15 ERA ranks third while his 0.92 WHIP is tied for second, just behind Yamamoto. The Pirates starter also paces the NL in WAR (2.8).

AL Cy Young Favorites

The AL CY Young odds are pretty cut and dry at this point, with Skubal standing as the runaway favorite to win the award for the second straight season at -150. Houston’s Hunter Brown is a distant second at +700, followed by Garrett Crochet (+750), Max Fried (+800), and Jacob deGrom (+1200).

Player	AL Cy Young Odds	Player	AL Cy Young Odds
Tarik Skubal (DET)	-150	Hunter Brown (HOU)	+700
Garrett Crochet (BOS)	+750	Max Fried (NYY)	+800
Jacob deGrom (TEX)	+1200	Kris Bubic (KC)	+2000
Nathan Eovaldi (TEX)	+2500	Carlos Rodon (NYY)	+2800
Bryan Woo (SEA)	+3000	Joe Ryan (MIN)	+5000
Pablo Lopez (MIN)	+5000	Cole Ragans (KC)	+5500
Tyler Mahle (TEX)	+6000	Framber Valdez (HOU)	+6500
Logan Gilbert (SEA)	+6500	Kevin Gausman (TOR)	+7500

Tarik Skubal (-150)

After posting a 2.39 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and 10.7 K/9 to win his first AL Cy Young award in 2024, Skubal’s splits are even better this season as he looks to maintain his position as the 2025 AL Cy Young betting favorite. He opened the season at +300 – the best odds in the AL – and his position has only strengthened since then.

The Tigers’ star has been in prime form over his last two starts, pitching a complete game shutout that included 13 strikeouts against the Guardians on May 25 and following that up with a scoreless seven-inning start versus the Royals on May 31.

Entering June, Skubal leads all AL starters in both WHIP (0.79) and K/9 (11.8) – a lethal combo that should keep him at the forefront of the 2025 CY Young odds this summer.

Max Fried (+800)

Fried opened the season at +1600 to win the 2025 AL Cy Young, but the southpaw has seen his stock rise considerably in the betting market through the first two months of the season.

The veteran has been everything the Yankees could have asked for and more as he owns the best record in the AL at 7-1 while ranking among the top five in both ERA (1.92) and WAR (2.4).

Fried had not allowed more than two earned runs in a start through his first 11 outings of the season,n but he was rocked by the Dodgers for eight hits and six runs through just five innings of work on May 30.

One bad start shouldn’t affect his odds too much, but it’s worth wondering whether Fried will be able to maintain the best numbers of his career in an always competitive AL East.

NL Cy Young Favorites

The NL Cy Young odds are a lot more open-ended at this point in the season, with Paul Skenes (+110), Yoshinobu Yamamoto (+280), and Zack Wheeler (+650) each looking like they have a legitimate shot at winning the award in 2025.

Player	NL Cy Young Odds	Player	NL Cy Young Odds
Paul Skenes (PIT)	+110	Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD)	+280
Zack Wheeler (PHI)	+650	Hunter Greene (CIN)	+1500
Logan Webb (SF)	+1800	Chris Sale (ATL)	+2000
Jesus Luzardo (PHI)	+2500	Kodai Senga (NYM)	+2500
Freddy Peralta (MIL)	+2800	Michael King (SD)	+3000
Corbin Burnes (ARI)	+3500	Cristopher Sanchez (PHI)	+3500
Robbie Ray (SF)	+4000	Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL)	+4500
MacKenzie Gore (WAS)	+5500	Matthew Liberatore (STL)	+6000

Paul Skenes (+110)

Skenes entered the season as the betting favorite in the 2025 NL Cy Young odds at +400 and has maintained the lead heading into June. The Pirates’ ace finished third in NL Cy Young voting last year during his rookie season and has solidified his position as one of the best pitchers in the majors at just 23 years of age.

The right-hander posted a stingy 1.91 ERA in May thanks to a run of four straight starts where he allowed a total of just three earned runs, capped off by 6 2/3 scoreless innings against the Diamondbacks on May 28.

Skenes is certainly a fan and voter favorite at this point, and that’s backed up by FanGraphs’ Cy Young model, which also has him as the current leader in the NL Cy Young race.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (+280)

Speaking of standout sophomores, Yamamoto has also shown significant improvement in his second season in the majors as he leads all NL starters in ERA (1.97) and WHIP (0.91) entering June.

The Dodgers starter did not receive a single Cy Young vote in his rookie campaign but has suddenly emerged as an NL Cy Young favorite for 2025. Yamomoto opened the season at +2500 and now has the second-best odds to win the award – kudos to anyone who got ahead on this one.

Yamamoto was nearly untouchable in April, posting a minuscule 0.38 ERA to go along with a 0.96 WHIP through four starts. The Japanese star hit a rough patch in the middle of May after giving up eight combined runs over a span of two starts, but he’s been consistent on the whole and should be in the NL Cy Young conversation all season.

Zack Wheeler (+650)

Wheeler finished second in NL Cy Young voting in 2024 to Chris Sale, the second time he’s been runner-up following the 2021 race against Corbin Burnes. The Phillies’ ace is determined to earn his first Cy Young award and remains a strong contender in 2025.

Wheeler opened at +800 in the NL Cy Young odds behind only Skenes and has maintained his position as one of the betting favorites through the first two months of 2025.

The 35-year-old ranks 10th among NL starters in ERA (2.96) but is tied for second with Skenes in WHIP (0.92), while also ranking second in WAR (2.4) and third in K/9 (11.1).

Wheeler was rocked by the Braves for six earned runs at the final start of May, ending a run of three straight scoreless starts and seven consecutive outings where he gave up two runs or fewer.

The Phillies starter has been one of the most consistent arms in the majors for several years now and should make another good run at the NL Cy Young award this season.

2025 Cy Young Odds and Our Picks

Looking beyond the obvious options like Skubal and Skenes, there are a few potential dark horses to consider in both the AL and NL when making MLB Cy Young predictions.

In the NL, I’m particularly fond of Mets starter Kodai Senga, who isn’t getting much respect on the betting lines despite an impressive showing through the first two months.

The right-hander owns an NL-best 1.60 ERA and has been remarkably consistent, allowing two earned runs or fewer in 10 of his 11 starts. If you’re into FanGraphs, Senga currently ranks sixth according to their NL Cy Young model.

Senga can be had for +2500 at Bovada – pretty good odds for the best pitcher on one of the best teams in the NL.

My longshot pick for the AL will be Kris Bubic, who’s had a rollercoaster start to his MLB career. The 27-year-old broke into the majors as a starter in 2020, moved to the bullpen in 2024 after recovering from Tommy John surgery, and is now back in the Royals’ starting rotation.

Bubic owns an AL-leading 1.45 ERA and 3.1 WAR through May and ranks third in Cy Young points according to FanGraphs, trailing only Skubal and Nathan Eovaldi.

The southpaw opened the season at +10000 to win the NL Cy Young but has shot up to +2000 at Bovada. If you’re looking for a value play, Kubic could be your guy.

Keep an Eye on the Races

While big names like Skubal and Skenes have pulled ahead of the pack early in the 2025 Cy Young odds, there’s still plenty of time for other players to make their case.

Stay updated on all the odds with GamblingNerd.com as we keep you updated with fresh MLB betting picks all season long.