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2026 Winter Olympics Medal Predictions, Medal Count & Updated Medal Table

We’re down to the final two days of the 2026 Winter Olympics in Milano Cortina, and the medal table is mostly set at the top.

Norway has created major separation. The United States is holding second in total medals. Italy is right there behind them. Olympics betting sites have adjusted their medal count odds to reflect that reality.

Here’s where the medal table stands and what the current odds are actually saying.

2026 Winter Olympics Medal Count Odds (Most Total Medals)

Norway’s 17 gold medals are the headline. That’s a new Winter Olympics single-Games record. They also lead comfortably in total medals with 36.

With only a couple of days left, that cushion matters.

Rank	Country	Gold	Silver	Bronze	Total
1	Norway	17	9	10	36
2	United States	9	12	6	27
3	Italy	9	5	12	26
4	Germany	6	8	8	22
5	France	6	8	6	20
6	Netherlands	6	7	3	16
=7	Switzerland	6	6	4	16
=7	Sweden	6	6	4	16
9	Austria	5	8	5	18
10	Japan	5	7	12	24

Most Total Medals Odds

Olympics betting sites are still offering markets on which country will finish with the most total medals.

Here are the current numbers.

Country	Odds to Win Most Total Medals
Norway	-195
United States	+140
Italy	+3300
Germany	+6500
China	+10000
Canada	+10000
France	+10000
Austria	+10000
Netherlands	+10000
Sweden	+10000

What These Total Medal Odds Mean

Norway at -195 implies roughly a 66 percent probability of finishing with the most total medals. With a nine-medal lead and limited medal sessions left, sportsbooks are pricing in how difficult it is to erase that gap this late.

For the United States to win this market, they likely need multiple podium finishes across the final events and very limited Norwegian production. A hockey gold would help, but one additional medal barely dents a nine-medal deficit. Realistically, the United States would need something closer to four or five medals over the final weekend, while Norway adds little to nothing.

The question for bettors is whether Team USA wins this race more than 41 percent of the time, which is what +140 implies. Given the math and the remaining schedule, that feels aggressive. The path exists, but it requires both a surge and a slowdown from Norway. That is a thin needle to thread with two days left.

From a value perspective, the most total medals market looks efficiently priced. Norway’s lead is substantial enough that -195 is reasonable, but not discounted enough to create a clear edge. The United States’ number is tempting, but it likely overstates their true chances.

Why Norway Pulled Away

This did not happen by accident.

Norway dominated cross-country skiing and biathlon. Johannes Hoesflot Klaebo won five gold medals. Johannes Dale-Skjevdal’s biathlon victory pushed the gold total to 17. Sturla Holm Laegreid added five total medals of his own.

🇳🇴 A Johannes Dale-Skjevdal medal or even a win today would be very popular. Has continued to overcome hurdles to rise time and again to the top of the team and the top of the sport. Torn up by the loss of Bakken. Consummate family man. Cmon Johannes!#biathlon

— Penalty Loop (@penaltyloop) February 20, 2026

When one country controls two of the highest-volume medal sports at the Winter Olympics, the medal table shifts quickly. That’s exactly what happened in Milano Cortina.

The Only Real Swing Left: Men’s Hockey

Men’s hockey is the last event that can meaningfully shift the medal odds.

Semifinals:

• Canada vs Finland
• United States vs Slovakia

Bronze medal game on Saturday. Gold medal game on Sunday.

Men’s hockey is the final event with the ability to influence medal positioning in a noticeable way. The semifinals feature Canada versus Finland and the United States versus Slovakia. The bronze medal game is Saturday, and the gold medal game is Sunday.

Matt Boldy was first to celebrate with his Minnesota Wild teammate, Quinn Hughes 🥹❤️@mnwild pic.twitter.com/c05nEROz1S

— ESPN (@espn) February 18, 2026

A gold medal here would add one gold and one total medal to the winner’s count. For the United States, that would mean moving to 10 gold medals and 28 total medals. That strengthens their hold on second place in total medals, but it does not materially threaten Norway’s lead in either category.

Hockey matters for the final order beneath Norway. It does not meaningfully change the odds of Norway finishing first.

Final Medal Table Outlook

With two days remaining, here’s the most likely finish:

• Norway first in gold and total medals
• United States second in total medals
• Italy in the top three overall
• Germany and France rounding out the top five

The 2026 Winter Olympics medal table leader is clear. The betting markets reflect that. What’s left now is final positioning and confirmation.

2026 Winter Olympics Medal Count Summary

At this stage of the 2026 Winter Olympics, the medal count odds largely reflect the current standings. Norway built its lead through dominant performances in cross-country skiing and biathlon, and that cushion is significant enough that the remaining schedule does not offer much volatility.

If you are looking strictly for value, there is little edge in the most total medals or most gold medals markets right now. The prices are tight, and the mathematical paths for an upset are narrow.

The better opportunities, if any, would likely come from narrower country-specific medal props or individual event betting rather than broad medal table futures.

With two days left in Milano Cortina, the 2026 Winter Olympics medal count race is mostly settled. The betting markets reflect that.