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How to Win NFL Parlays Like a Sharp

Learning how to win NFL parlays will help you secure major paydays during the football season. There is no perfect parlay betting system, but there are steps you can take to improve your odds of winning these high-risk wagers.

This guide covers the basics of how to win parlays. I will discuss the fundamentals of parlay betting, break down the math behind these bets, and highlight tips and tricks you can use to become a more successful parlay bettor.

Why Parlays Are Popular but Tough to Beat

Parlays are popular at the best NFL betting sites for two reasons: they are fun and can pay bettors a lot of money. That’s why NFL parlay picks are so sought-after each week during football season.

Entertainment should be the driving force behind any wagers that you place. Few betting options can compete with the excitement provided by parlay wagers. The opportunity to win huge sums of money is another undeniable factor that makes parlays popular bets.

The flip side of high payout odds is that parlays have a high house edge. If one leg of the parlay falls short, then the whole bet loses. The slim margin for error makes parlays one of the toughest bets to win at the.

Understanding Parlay Math

The first step to becoming a winning parlay bettor is to understand the math behind parlay wagers. Whether you’re building your own picks and parlays NFL card or using sportsbook parlay builders, understanding how the odds work is critical.

Parlay Payouts

Parlays combine two or more bets into one wager. The more legs that you add, the higher our potential payout odds.

You can calculate the odds for a parlay using this simple formula:

• For plus money legs: (American odds/100) + 1
• For favored legs: (100/American odds) + 1
• Multiply legs together
• Subtract 1, then multiply by 100

Also, for favored odds, use the absolute value of the American odds.

For instance, let’s say you have a two-leg parlay with odds of -115 and +115. You would calculate the odds for this parlay like so:

• Leg 1 (-115): (100/115) + 1 = 1.869
• Leg 2 (+115): (115/100) + 1 = 2.150
• Leg 1 X * Leg 2: 1.869* 2.15 = 4.02
• Convert to American odds: (4.02 – 1) * 100 = +302

Of course, thanks to modern betting tools, you do not need to calculate parlay odds by hand. You can use a parlay calculator to figure out the odds for your bet. Many modern sportsbooks, such as BetOnline Sportsbook, have parlay-building tools that make it easy to track the odds for your bet with each leg that you add.

Implied Probability

Many novice bettors are easily distracted by high potential payout odds. The promise of a big payday can make it easy to overlook the low chances of winning.

Implied probability in betting is the percentage chance a given bet has to win.

For instance, a bet with odds of -115 has an implied win probability of 53.49%. A wager listed at +115 odds, on the other hand, has an implied win probability of just 46.51%.

Using the example above, combining these wagers into a parlay offers +302 odds. Instead of having two bets at 46% win probability or higher, your parlay has an implied win probability of 24.88%. 

Why Parlays are Stacked Against You

A significantly lower implied win probability is not the only hurdle parlay bettors must overcome. For example, the sportsbook also imposes a vig, or tax, on every wager. The vig reduces your payout odds, so you rarely, if ever, get true odds for the bets you are using to build your parlay.

The vig is already applied to each leg. When your odds are combined for the parlay, so are the individual vigs for each leg.

As mentioned above, the small margin for error also stacks the deck against bettors. With most parlays, a single failed leg will cost you the entire bet. The more legs you add to your bet, the smaller your margin of error.

Many sportsbooks will also offer pre-made parlay bets to members. While these promotional wagers are convenient and may seem like good bets, they are usually worse than they appear.

Sharp Angles for NFL Parlays

There are inherent issues with making parlays, but the right strategy can help you overcome the odds and make parlays like a sharp bettor.

Correlated Plays

One of the best strategies for making parlays is to use correlated bets. For instance, if you are wagering on a receiver to score a touchdown, consider also betting on that team’s quarterback’s passing TD props.

Additionally, if you are betting on a quarterback’s passing TD prop, consider their passing yards prop as well.

Betting on props that are connected increases your odds of making a correct prediction. This strategy is part of the reason why Same Game Parlays (SGPs) have gained popularity. 

Exploiting Injuries

Researching your bets before placing them is a necessary part of any winning strategy. Quality research is key to making winning NFL parlay picks.

One area to focus your research on is injuries. Injuries can create additional opportunities for other skill players on the team. Alternatively, injuries to a defense can make it easier for opposing offenses to accumulate statistics.

Some injuries can also lower expectations. Starting QBs missing time or injury-riddled offensive lines often lower an offense’s production.

Market Timing

The timing of your bet will influence the odds you can bet on. Sportsbooks adjust odds based on a variety of factors, such as injury news, recent performances, and bettor activity.

If you are making a futures parlay, then betting early ensures the highest-paying odds. Likewise, if you are betting with the public, you should place your bets early, before the public money reduces the odds.

However, if you are planning to wager against the public favorite, you should wait to place your bets. In this scenario, waiting allows the odds to adjust to the public opinion and gives you better payout odds to include in your parlay.

Common Mistakes Casual Bettors Make

Another reason parlays have an undesirable reputation with experienced bettors is that they are easy to mess up. Here are three common mistakes bettors make when betting on parlays.

Adding Too Many Legs

One of the easiest missteps to make when creating a parlay is to add too many legs to the bet. Adding a new leg can increase your payout odds exponentially. However, every leg you add significantly reduces your odds of winning.

Check out this table of hypothetical parlays using legs at -110 odds each. 

Number of Legs	Payout Odds	Implied Win Probability
2	+264.46	27.47%
3	+595.79	14.39%
4	+1228.33	7.53%
5	+2435.91	3.94%

Each leg individually has an implied win probability of 52.38%. Every leg that you add, though, cuts your probability of winning in half.

Betting With Bias

Another issue for novice parlay bettors is that they can be biased when picking their legs. Only betting on your favorite team to succeed, for instance, is a good way to lose your parlays.

Bias can also lead to adding low-probability wagers to your parlay. Bets with long odds can offer tantalizing payouts, but that means little if you do not actually win the wager. Instead, minimize your bias by picking high expected value (EV) bets.

Tools Sharps Use

Parlay calculators are a great tool for sharp bettors. Additional tools and strategies for creating parlays include:

• Line shopping: shopping for the best line value is time-consuming, but it is the only way to ensure you are getting the best possible payout for your parlays.
• Using CLV: Sharps prioritize finding closing line value (CLV), as it helps them beat the market. Finding positive CLV bets will help you maximize the value of your bets. 
• Advanced stats: Using advanced metrics to identify potential mismatches is another way to get an edge over the sportsbook. Identifying these discrepancies will help you determine the best bets for fading the public.

Responsible Approach to Parlays

As with any type of betting, it is important to place your parlay wagers responsibly. The two key factors to consider are bankroll management and maintaining a sense of fun.

Bankroll Management

No bettor can succeed long-term without managing their bankroll. You should never bet more than you can afford to lose, especially when making high-risk bets like parlays.

Use Parlays for Fun

Parlays can be fun bets to make, even if you do not win. Focusing on the entertainment provided by these bets is the best strategy to succeed, even if your bet fails. With that in mind, you should also avoid using parlays as part of a grind strategy. 

Where to Bet on the Best NFL Parlays

Shopping odds is an important part of how to win parlays. However, you also need to use top-rated, secure sports betting sites to minimize risk. The best place for betting on NFL parlays is BetOnline.

At BetOnline, you can use the intuitive SGP builder to create parlays for every game throughout the season. New members can also get up to $250 in free bets to use this football season. Check out our BetOnline review to find out more about this sportsbook.