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Indy 500 Odds and Picks: Can Newgarden Overcome Penalty and 3-Peat?

The Team Penske cheating scandal has caused major changes to the Indy 500 odds ahead of this weekend’s race. Two-time defending champion Josef Newgarden will start in the 11th and final row, making his attempt to three-peat even more challenging.

Can Newgarden overcome his poor starting position, or will someone like Álex Palou earn their first Borg-Warner Trophy? This guide will analyze the latest Indy 500 odds for 2025 from top racing sportsbooks. Also, I will break down the top contenders and give my Indy 500 predictions.

When Is the 2025 Indy 500?

The annual Indy 500 is a Memorial Day tradition for many racing fans. This year’s race is scheduled for  Sunday, May 25th. The green flag drops at 12:45 p.m. Eastern, but coverage starts as early as 10 a.m. on some networks.

This year’s race is even more anticipated than usual after a cheating scandal rocked the racing world. Team Penske drivers Will Power and two-time defending champion Josef Newgarden will start in the last two positions on Sunday.

Why Was Team Penske Punished?

So, what did Team Penske do to be penalized with a bad starting position at the Indy 500?

Simply put, Team Penske made illegal modifications to the rear crash structures of Power’s and Newgarden’s cars. These modifications, which consisted of filling the seams of the cars’ attenuators, were flagged during pre-qualifying inspections.

Similar modifications are believed to be seen on Newgarden’s 2024 Indy 500 car, raising questions about the legitimacy of his win.

Team Penske dug their hole deeper by attempting to remove the illegal filler while other drivers were completing their qualifying laps. Modifying their cars after qualifying had started resulted in a pit lane procedural violation.

Newest 2025 Indy 500 Betting Odds

See the table below for the updated Indy 500 betting odds, courtesy of BetUS.

Driver	Indy 500 Odds	Team
Álex Palou	+550	Chip Ganassi Racing
Pato O’Ward	+600	Arrow McLaren
Scott Dixon	+650	Chip Ganassi Racing
Josef Newgarden	+900	Team Penske
Scott McLaughlin	+900	Team Penske
Robert Shwartzman	+900	Prema Racing
Takuma Sato	+900	Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing
Felix Rosenqvist	+1200	Meyer Shank Racing
Kyle Larson	+1600	Arrow McLaren
Will Power	+2000	Team Penske

Álex Palou has won four of his five starts this season. Palou’s dominance in recent years has already led to him winning the IndyCar Series National Championship three of the last four years. He is listed at +550 to win his first Indy 500 this year.

Pato O’Ward (+600) and Palou’s Chip Ganassi Racing teammate Scott Dixon (+650) are hot on the favorite’s tail.

Josef Newgarden, Scott McLaughlin, Robert Shwartzman, and Takuma Sato are all tied for the fourth-best odds at 9-1 each. Felix Rosenqvist (+1200), Kyle Larson (+1600), and Will Power (+2000) round out the top 10.

Álex Palou (+550)

Chip Ganassi Racing’s star driver, Álex Palou, is the +550 favorite to win his first Indy 500. The milk bath is one of the few celebrations that have eluded Palou in recent years.

Palou has crushed the competition this season. His results through five races include four wins and one runner-up finish. The only race Palou has lost this season was the 2025 Acura Grand Prix of Long Beach.

His fast start has also propelled Palou to the top of the IndyCar Series points leaderboard. Palou’s 248 points are nearly 100 points ahead of second-place Kyle Kirkwood (151 points).

Pato O’Ward (+600)

Pato O’Ward nearly won the 2024 Indy 500. He led the 199th lap but lost his lead to Josef Newgarden on the final trip around the track.

O’Ward is listed at 6-1 in the latest Indy 500 odds to win in 2025. The Arrow McLaren driver is currently fourth on the points leaderboard with 148 points this season. He is just behind his teammate, Christian Lundgaard (150 points).

So far through five starts, O’Ward has three top 10 finishes, but he is still searching for his first win in 2025. On the other hand, O’Ward has led for 51 laps this season, the second-most of any driver. Palou’s 149 laps led are far and away the most of any driver this year.

Scott Dixon (+650)

Scott Dixon is a close third in the latest odds for the Indy 500. Dixon is sixth on the points leaderboard with 134 total points in 2025. He has two top-five finishes and four top-10 finishes this year.

The only race Chip Ganassi Racing’s second-best driver has missed the top 10 in this season was the Children’s of Alabama Indy Grand Prix, where he came in 12th.

Dixon’s best finish was in the season opener at the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg, where he finished second. Despite consistently being amongst the top 12 drivers in every race this season, Dixon has only led for a total of seven laps in 2025.

Josef Newgarden (+900)

There are four drivers tied at +900 in the latest Indy 500 odds, but none are more intriguing than Team Penske’s Josef Newgarden. His surge on the final lap last year earned him his second Indy 500 win. Newgarden was just the sixth driver to win the race in consecutive years.

However, after the illegal modifications to Newgarden’s and another Team Penske car were flagged this year, many have questioned the legitimacy of his win. As part of the penalty issued to the team for the modifications, Newgarden will start in the last row on Sunday.

The poor starting position directly affected Newgarden’s chances of becoming the first driver to three-peat in Indy. His odds faded from the +600 mark to +900. This represents a decrease in implied win probability from 14.29% to 10%.

Newgarden has a lot of ground to make up, but the Indy 500 is a long race. The penalty to his team could provide the extra motivation Newgarden needs to make history on Sunday.

Scott McLaughlin (+900)

Another Team Penske driver listed at 9-1 odds to the Indy 500 is Scott McLaughlin. He was the only Penske driver in this race not penalized for illegally modifying his car.

McLaughlin is fifth in points so far this season with 137. He has made the top 10 four times in his five starts, including three top-five finishes. McLaughlin has also led for 43 laps thus far in the 2025 season.

He finished sixth in last year’s race, just +2.0593 behind his teammate Newgarden. Despite not winning the race, McLaughlin still had a respectable showing. He led the race for 66 laps, the most of anyone and 40 more than any other driver.

Most of his leading laps came in the first 100 laps. McLaughlin’s last lead was on lap 130, but problems with the clutch on his car prevented him from competing for first in the final third of the race. If he can avoid similar issues this year, McLaughlin should compete for a top finish in Indy.

Indy 500 Predictions

There will be 33 of the world’s best IndyCar drivers hitting the track this Sunday for the 109th Indy 500. Álex Palou is the favorite, but he has struggled at Indianapolis Motor Speedway in the past.

Those struggles will continue in 2025, allowing for Pato O’Ward (+600) to avenge his loss from last season. O’Ward arguably would have won in 2024 if not for the now questionable modifications to Newgarden’s car. It is only right that O’Ward sets the record straight with a win this year.

Best Indy 500 Sleeper Pick

At +550, Palou is far from a heavy favorite even though he has won four races this year. As a result, there are plenty of worthy sleeper picks in the 33-car field taking the track in Indy on Sunday.

My top sleeper is Kyle Kirkwood, who currently sits at second on the IndyCar points leaderboard. He is the only driver to bear Palou this year, taking first place at the Grand Prix of Long Beach.

Kirkwood is currently listed at +2800 odds to win his first Indy 500. He set a career-best in this race last season, finishing seventh. With a win over the favorite already under his belt, Kirkwood has plenty of momentum heading into the legendary Brickyard this Sunday.

Are You Ready to Bet on the Indy 500?

A racing scandal shook up the Indy 500 odds ahead of Memorial Day weekend. See the guide above for the latest betting lines and my official Indy 500 predictions.

Then, sign up at BetUS to bet on your Indy 500 picks using updated Indy 500 betting odds. New members can use the code JOIN125 to claim a 125% deposit match on their first three deposits at this motorsports betting site.