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NFL awards odds and predictions have changed significantly after the first month of the season. There are new leaders in multiple markets, including OPOY and DPOY.
I break down the latest NFL awards odds after Week 4 in the guide below. All odds in the guide below were pulled on October 9th. Also, I give my top picks for the most popular awards and explain why each selection is the best bet to win its season-long award.
NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds Snapshot
The top NFL sportsbooks provided the following odds for Offensive Player of the Year.
| Player | BetUS1 of 3 | Lucky Rebel2 of 3 | BetOnline3 of 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | +300 (was +900) | +600 (was +825) | +275 |
| Kenneth Walker III | +375 | +330 | +350 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | +400 (was +575) | +375 (was +600) | +475 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | +900 (was +1800) | +850 (was +1500) | +900 |
| CeeDee Lamb | +1400 | +1500 | +1400 |
| Derrick Henry | +1800 (was +2200) | +1800 (was +2200) | +1800 |
| Jonathan Taylor | +2200 (was +2000) | +2500 (was +2200) | +2200 |
| Chris Olave | +2800 | +2500 | +2500 |
| Zay Flowers | +3000 | +2800 | +2800 |
| Josh Allen | +3000 | +2800 | +3300 |
| James Cook | +3000 | +2800 | +3300 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | +3000 (was +2200) | +2800 (was +2500) | +3300 |
| Puka Nacua | +3000 (was +1200) | +2200 (was +1300) | +2500 |
| Ja’Marr Chase | +3000 (was +1000) | +2200 (was +875) | +2800 |
| Brock Bowers | +3500 | +2600 | +2500 |
Nerd Verdict on Offensive Player of the Year
- Verdict: Bet on Kenneth Walker III
- Best captured price: +375 at BetUS
- Break-even probability: 21.05%
- Target price: +250 or longer odds
- Primary risk: Andy Reid usually does not run the ball as much as he has this year.
- Confidence: Moderate – KW3 leads the NFL in rushing and scrimmage yards.
Kenneth Walker III’s OPOY Case
Kenneth Walker II has far exceeded expectations in his first year with the Chiefs. Kansas City has leaned on the Super Bowl MVP to take pressure off of Patrick Mahomes, who is recovering from an ACL tear.
KW3 has rewarded the Chiefs for their trust in the first four weeks and is at or near the top of the NFL in the following categories:
- Scrimmage yards – 621 (1st)
- Rushing yards – 537 (1st)
- Yards per carry – 6.2 (1st among RBs)
- Touchdowns from scrimmage – 6 (T-5th)
- Rushing TDs – 4 (T-6th)
- Rushing 1st downs – 25 (3rd)
If the Chiefs continue to lean on Walker and he keeps producing at his current rate, KW3 will be the OPOY.
NFL Defensive Player of the Year Odds Overview
The table below details the latest Defensive Player of the Year odds from football sportsbooks.
| Player | BetUS1 of 3 | Lucky Rebel2 of 3 | BetOnline3 of 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anderson Jr. | +250 (was +550) | +280 (was +525) | +225 |
| TJ Watt | +700 (was +2500) | +750 (was +2000) | +750 |
| Dallas Turner | +750 | +900 | +800 |
| Aidan Hutchinson | +1200 (was +800) | +1200 (was +700) | +1200 |
| Greg Rousseau | +1400 | +1400 | +1200 |
| Fred Warner | +1600 | +1500 | +1600 |
| Maxx Crosby | +1600 (was +1400) | +2000 (was +1600) | +2000 |
| Nik Bonitto | +3000 (was +1400) | +3300 (was +1800) | +3300 |
| Dexter Lawrence | +3500 | +3300 | +2000 |
| Danielle Hunter | +3500 (was +2500) | +3300 (was +3000) | +3300 |
Nerd Verdict on Defensive Player of the Year
- Verdict: Bet on Dallas Turner
- Best captured price: +900 at Lucky Rebel
- Break-even probability: 10%
- Target price: +700 or longer odds
- Primary risk: It will be hard for Turner to stand out on a top-rated defense.
- Confidence: High – Turner is a key player on a Vikings defense that has kept the team undefeated.
Dallas Turner DPOY Prediction
Minnesota’s defense has been dominant this season. So much so that the Vikings are 4-0 despite Minnesota’s offensive struggles. Minnesota has been held to 15 or fewer points twice; their defense still found a way to win.
Dallas Turner has flourished in Brian Flores’s scheme. Turner is second in the NFL with 5.5 sacks and has six tackles for a loss (T-6th). Turner also has a unique edge over DPOY favorite Will Anderson Jr. because Minnesota has a winning record. Anderson and the Texans, for comparison, are 0-4 to start the year.
Turner’s biggest hurdle to winning DPOY is the talent around him in Minnesota. Teammate Kyle Van Noy has more TFLs (7), and eight players on Minnesota’s defense have at least 0.5+ sacks.
NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds Synopsis
The table below compares Comeback Player of the Year odds for the top contenders this season.
| Player | BetUS1 of 3 | Lucky Rebel2 of 3 | BetOnline3 of 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | -275 (was +185) | -260 (was +185) | -250 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | +800 | +1000 | +700 |
| Joe Alt | N/A | +1500 | N/A |
| Kyler Murray | +1800 (was +550) | +1800 (was +600) | +1800 |
| George Kittle | +2000 (was +3000) | +2500 (was +3000) | +1600 |
| Deshaun Watson | +2200 | +3300 | +1400 |
| Fred Warner | +2500 (was +3000) | +2000 (was +2800) | +2500 |
| Aaron Donald | +3000 (was +750) | +3500 (was +900) | +3300 |
| Brock Bowers | +3000 | +3300 | +4000 |
| Daniel Jones | +3500 (was +1200) | +4500 (was +1400) | +4000 |
| Malik Nabers | +3500 (was +1500) | +4000 (was +1300) | +5000 |
Nerd Verdict on Comeback Player of the Year
- Verdict: Bet on Patrick Mahomes
- Best captured price: -250 at BetOnline
- Break-even probability: 71.43%
- Target price: -300 or better odds
- Primary risk: Mahomes candidacy could be undermined by KW3 production.
- Confidence: High – Mahomes is top-10 in multiple categories, and QBs tend to be favorites in many awards.
Why Mahomes Will Win CPOY
Patrick Mahomes opened the season as the favorite to win Comeback Player of the Year, and KC’s 4-0 start has only further extended his lead in the betting lines.
Mahomes is top 10 in the NFL in the following categories:
- Passing yards: 1,037 (10th)
- Passing TDs: 9 (T-3rd)
- Yards per attempt: 8.1 (T-6th)
- QBR: 69.7 (7th)
Assuming he does not aggravate his knee injury, Mahomes could all but lock up CPOY in the next month. His biggest obstacle is KW3, who has been the engine of the Chiefs’ offense. Walker’s production could limit the credit Mahomes gets for the Chiefs’ return to dominance.
More 2026 NFL Awards Odds
Keep reading for a closer look at my picks for Coach of the Year, Offensive Rookie of the Year, and Defensive Rookie of the Year.
For even more NFL futures betting, check out my 2026 NFL MVP odds breakdown.
Coach of the Year – Todd Monken
- Ben Johnson (+550)
- Klint Kubiak (+600)
- Todd Monken (+650)
- Kevin O’Connell (+1000)
BetUS has Ben Johnson as the +550 favorite to win COTY in 2026. Johnson’s coaching has been impressive during Caleb Williams’ absence, and the Bears are 3-1. However, Chicago also had high expectations going into the year.
No one had high expectations for the Browns, who opened the year at 25-1 odds to win the AFC North. Now, the Browns are 3-1 and, by virtue of a division record tiebreaker, the top team in the North.
Todd Monken is listed at +650 to win the award. If he can push the Browns to a winning record this season, Monken will bring Cleveland its third COTY award since 2020.
Offensive Rookie of the Year – Denzel Boston
- Jeremiyah Love (+145)
- Carnell Tate (+325)
- Denzel Boston (+425)
- KC Concepcion (+900)
- Antonio Williams (+2200)
- Makai Lemon (+2200)
Lucky Rebel has Jeremiyah Love as the betting favorite to win OROY at +145 odds. However, WR Denzel Boston is my pick for the award.
Love has struggled with ankle injuries to start his career, and the Cardinals are just 1-3 so far. Boston, on the other hand, has emerged as the WR1 on a surprising Browns offense. He is 12th in the NFL with 284 receiving yards, the most by a rookie so far.
There is a lot of the season left to play, but Boston’s odds will shorten quickly if he breaks into the top 10 receiving yards and continues to help Cleveland win games.
Defensive Rookie of the Year – Arvell Reese
- Jacob Rodriguez (+200)
- Arvell Reese (+285)
- Sonny Styles (+800)
- David Bailey (+1000)
- Mansoor Delane (+1000)
BetOnline has Giants rookie Arvell Reese listed at +285 odds to win DROPY, second only to Jacob Rodriguez (+200). Like Boston, Reese has been key to his team’s ability to surpass expectations this season.
The Giants are 3-1 and have sole ownership of the top spot in the NFC East through four games.
Reese leads the G-Men with 34 total tackles, including three TFLs. He is also tied for second on the team with one pick so far this season. If Reese continues to help the Giants exceed expectations, he will have a solid case for DROY.
The Market’s 2026 NFL Award Predictions
See the table below for the market’s best picks for NFL awards this season.
| Award | BetUS1 of 3 | Lucky Rebel2 of 3 | BetOnline3 of 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive Player of the Year | Bijan Robinson (+300) | Kenneth Walker III (+330) | Bijan Robinson (+275) |
| Defensive Player of the Year | Will Anderson Jr. (+250) | Will Anderson Jr. (+280) | Will Anderson Jr. (+225) |
| Comeback Player of the Year | Patrick Mahomes (-275) | Patrick Mahomes (-260) | Patrick Mahomes (-250) |
| Coach of the Year | Ben Johnson (+550) | Ben Johnson (+625) | Ben Johnson (+550) |
| Offensive Rookie of the Year | N/A | Jeremiyah Love (+145) | Jeremiyah Love (+145) |
| Defensive Rookie of the Year | Jacob Rodriguez (+200) | Jacob Rodriguez (+210) | Jacob Rodriguez (+200) |
Lucky Rebel agrees with me that KW3is the best pick for OPOY, but BetUS offers a better return at +375. Outside of OPOY, the favorites are the same across the board at our top sportsbooks.
I disagree with many of the market’s picks, most notably DPOY. Will Anderson Jr. is having a great individual season, but the Texans defense as a whole has been disappointing. It will be tough for Anderson to win DPOY on a defense that is near the bottom of the league in yards and points allowed, giving Turner a better shot at winning the award.
Tips and Trends for NFL Awards Betting
Factor in these tips and trends when making your NFL awards bets this year.
Know the Voters
Understanding the voting pool and its criteria for each award will help you identify the best picks. Protector of the Year, for instance, has a unique six-person committee formed by retired o-linemen instead of AP voters.
Factor in Injury Risks
Injuries can derail season-long awards bets. Talented players with extensive injury histories, such as Joe Burrow, are risky options.
Performance vs. Expectations
Outperforming expectations is the key to winning many awards, including Coach of the Year. This makes awards wagers a great chance to search for sleeper picks that are undervalued by the market.
What Are Your 2026 NFL Awards Predictions?
There is still time to lock in value on the latest NFL awards odds. You can bet on OPOY, DPOY, and many other awards. My favorite pick is for Patrick Mahomes to win CPOY at -185 odds, securing value before his odds shorten significantly later in the year.
Read the rest of my NFL awards predictions above. Also, check back every month to see the latest odds and my updated awards picks.
(Photo by AP Photo/John Locher)
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