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NHL Hart Trophy Odds: Who Will Win MVP in 2025-26?

The 2025-26 NHL season is just one-third complete but the Hart Trophy race has already begun to take shape.

This season’s Hart Trophy odds opened with Nathan MacKinnon leading the pack, and the Colorado Avalanche star is living up to the hype as he’s on pace to become the first skater to crack the 50-point mark this season.

The race also features a few new faces in Macklin Celebrini and Connor Bedard, who have joined the league’s elite thanks to their hot starts.

Keep reading as I break down the 2025-26 NHL Hart Trophy odds and provide my predictions as well as longshot picks.

Top Contenders for the 2025-26 Hart Trophy

The two names atop the NHL Hart Trophy odds have remained the same since last month as Nathan MacKinnon (-210) and Connor McDavid (+290) continue to lead the way.

MacKinnon is off to a blazing start with a league-leading 24 goals and 49 points in just 29 games, while his Avalanche have been atop the NHL standings for well over a month.

McDavid’s Edmonton Oilers are barely clinging onto a playoff spot, but the captain continues to fill the net with 42 points in 29 contests.

Outside of those two is where we’re starting to see some real movement in the Hart Trophy race, as Macklin Celebrini (+1600) and Connor Bedard (+2000) have also entered the fray.

At just 19 years of age, Celebrini has already emerged as one of the NHL’s brightest stars, tallying 43 points in 30 games while putting his San Jose Sharks back on the map for playoff contention.

Twenty-year-old Bedard is enjoying a similar breakout year with 40 points in 29 games while his Chicago Blackhawks are just one point back of the playoff line in the West. Below are the updated Hart Trophy odds via BetUS:

Player	Hart Trophy Odds	Player	Hart Trophy Odds
Nathan MacKinnon	-220	Connor McDavid	+280
Jack Eichel	+1600	Macklin Celebrini	+1600
Connor Bedard	+2000	Cale Makar	+3000
Leon Draisaitl	+5000	Sidney Crosby	+5000
David Pastrnak	+7500	Matthew Tkachuk	+7500
Auston Matthews	+10000	Mikko Rantanen	+12500

Nathan MacKinnon (-220)

MacKinnon led the Hart Trophy odds at +225 last month, but that number has jumped to -220 as we move through December, giving the Avalanche superstar an implied probability of nearly 68% to win the award for the second time in his career.

MacKinnon is on pace for 139 points, which would come up just shy of his 140-point Hart Trophy-winning campaign in 2023-24. However, his goal scoring has seen a huge bump as he’s trending for 68 tallies – the third-highest total in the past 30 years behind Auston Matthews (69 in 2023-24) and Mario Lemieux (699 in 1995-96).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1xImGBqhSYM&pp=ygUKbWFja2lubm9uIA%3D%3D

It hasn’t just been pure offense for the Avalanche forward, though. MacKinnon also had a league-best +35 rating and has outscored the opposition 41-10 when he’s been on the ice at 5-on-5.

It should also help MacKinnon’s case that the Avalanche are already running away in the Presidents’ Trophy race. Colorado leads the league with 48 points, and the Dallas Stars (45) are the only team within eight.

The Avalanche are the clear betting favorite to win the Presidents’ Trophy at -225, and MacKinnon likely runs away with the Hart if his team stays atop the standings.

Connor McDavid (+200)

McDavid is holding steady at second place in the Hart Trophy race at +200, as his odds haven’t changed month-over-month after he entered the season as the favorite.

The Oilers captain looks to be heating up after netting his first hat trick and four-point outing of the season on December 4, while he’s also posted 10 multi-point outings in his last 17 games.

The issue for McDavid is his supporting cast. The Oilers are barely above .500 with a 13-11-5 record as they cling to a Wild Card spot in the Western Conference.

Assuming Edmonton continues to struggle, the only way we’ll see McDavid win the Hart Trophy is if he takes over the league scoring lead by a sizable margin. He’s already seven points back of MacKinnon, which isn’t an insurmountable lead, but I wouldn’t be putting my money on McDavid with the way the Oilers’ season is trending.

Macklin Celebrini (+1600)

Celebrini made an immediate impact last year in his rookie season with 63 points in 70 games, but the Sharks’ sophomore has taken a giant leap in 2025-26. His 43 points are second in the league behind MacKinnon, while the 19-year-old has made San Jose relevant again as they seek their first playoff berth since 2018-19.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fDstaZjjF2U&pp=ygUJY2VsZWJyaW5p

It’s difficult to see Celebrini outscoring MacKinnon and McDavid by season’s end, but if he can push his Sharks back into the playoffs, there’s a real discussion to be had about his title as the league’s most valuable player.

Celebrini’s 43 points are 15 more than the next-closest skater on San Jose (Will Smith: 28), while no one else has more than 18 points for the Sharks. That’s a stark contrast to the Avalanche, who already have three 35-point scorers and six guys with 18-plus points.

Jack Eichel (+1600)

Jack Eichel looked like an early-season favorite for the Hart Trophy, but the Vegas Golden Knights star has slowed down over the past month, notching a modest 15 points in his last 15 games.

Eichel still leads his club with 36 points and is tied for 10th league-wide in scoring, but he’s already well off the pace barring a big bounceback.

Vegas has also started relatively slow with a 14-6-8 record, though the Golden Knights have won four straight and are just one point back of the Anaheim Ducks for first in the Pacific Division.

It’s not impossible for Eichel to win his first Hart Trophy this season, but he’ll need a lot to go right.

Connor Bedard (+2000)

Bedard was one of the NHL’s most hyped prospects of all time when he entered the league in 2023-24 en route to a Calder Trophy with 61 points in 68 games. The Blackhawks forward didn’t show much progression in his sophomore season with 67 points in 82 contests, but he’s come back with a vengeance in 2025-26.

Bedard is fourth among all players with 40 points in 29 games while his 18 goals are already just five shy of his career high set last season. The 20-year-old is on pace for 51 goals, which would mark the sixth-highest total in Blackhawks history as well as the first 50-goal campaign for the franchise since Jeremy Roenick hit the mark in 1992-93.

NHL awards rely heavily on hype and storylines, and Bedard is definitely up there with both MacKinnon and Celebrini on both fronts. If he can lead Chicago to the postseason for the first time since 2019-20, there’s a good chance we see Bedard as a finalist for this year’s Hart Trophy.

Final Prediction – Who Will Win the 2025-26 Hart Trophy?

It’s still relatively early in the season, but it truly feels like the Hart Trophy is already MacKinnon’s to lose. The Avalanche forward has found the score sheet in 24 of his 29 appearances this season and looks like he’s on a mission to carry his team to a Presidents’ Trophy while potentially setting new career highs.

With a supporting cast featuring names like Cale Makar and Martin Necas, I don’t see MacKinnon or the Avalanche slowing down this season.

It’s going to take a ton of production and hype to overtake MacKinnon in the Hart Trophy race, and I see Bedard as the most likely candidate to do so right now.

Bedard has been one of the league’s most marketable players since he debuted two seasons ago, and he’s finally putting it all together as he’s on pace for over 50 goals and 113 points.

Another factor that could benefit Bedard is the upcoming Winter Olympics in February. If the rumors are true, Bedard likely won’t make Team Canada’s roster despite his hot start to the season. That could actually play to Bedard’s advantage, though, as he’ll have three weeks to rest and recover while his competition is fighting for gold.

Best bet: Nathan MacKinnon (-220)

Value bet: Connor Bedard (+2000)

Keep Up with the Hart Trophy Race

We’re only a month into the NHL season, so there’s no better time to get solid prices on 2025-26 NHL Hart Trophy odds.

Stay up to date with the latest NHL odds and predictions throughout the season at GamblingNerd.