2026 NHL Winter Classic Odds

winter classic

The 2026 NHL Winter Classic heads to the Sunshine State for the first time on Friday, January 2, when the Florida Panthers face off against the New York Rangers at loanDepot Park in Miami.

There might not be any snow at this year’s outdoor showcase, but sparks will fly as both clubs are in the midst of a tight playoff race in the Eastern Conference.

The Panthers (-155) are currently the betting favorite over the Rangers (+130) according to our Winter Classic odds, but the lines are constantly moving as the weather changes in the hours leading up to puck drop.

I’ll break down the NHL outdoor game odds, provide my Winter Classic predictions, and explain how to bet the Winter Classic.

Winter Classic Odds

The NHL Winter Classic betting odds for this year’s outdoor game between the Panthers and Rangers come from BetUS, one of the world’s most reputable sportsbooks and an industry leader in sports betting since 2011. Odds are always subject to change, and line movement is especially common for outdoor games, given unpredictable weather conditions.

TeamMoneylinePuck LineTotal
New York Rangers+130+1.5 (-198)Over 5.5 (-115)
Florida Panthers-155-1.5 (+164)Under 5.5 (-105)

Winter Classic Breakdown & Predictions

New York Rangers

The Rangers skate – or rather limp – into the 2026 Winter Classic as the betting underdog (+130). New York has dropped three straight games and will be without captain J.T. Miller, who was placed on the injured reserve last week with an upper-body injury.

Goaltender Igor Shesterkin is the Rangers’ most important player, and while he hasn’t played up to his 2021-22 Vezina Trophy form this season, he has been solid. The 30-year-old has a .910 save percentage and a 2.51 goals against average through 32 starts, leading New York to the eighth-best team defense in the NHL (2.76 GA/GP).

However, even with their elite goaltending, the Rangers have struggled to win many games. New York’s offense ranks second-last in the league at just 2.55 goals per game. Artemi Panarin (41 points) and Adam Fox (28 points) are the only Rangers skaters averaging at least one point per game, and Miller’s absence will hurt an already weak New York attack.

It’s unclear how much this will play a factor, but the Rangers have historically been excellent in outdoor games. In fact, New York’s 5-0-0 record is the best mark of any team in the NHL, with its most recent outdoor game being a 6-5 overtime win against the rival Islanders at the 2024 Stadium Series.

In terms of a Winter Classic prediction for the Rangers, I like under 2.5 team total goals. New York has scored two goals or fewer in nine of its last 13 contests, and the Rangers will be even weaker up front without Miller, who is one of their four double-digit goal scorers.

Florida Panthers

After a sluggish start to the season, the two-time defending Stanley Cup champions are finally starting to heat up. The Panthers currently occupy the second Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference after going 9-3-1 over their last 13 games.

Florida could also get a huge boost with the return of Matthew Tkachuk, who practiced with the team for the first time on Sunday after undergoing offseason surgery on a turn adductor muscle. It has not yet been announced whether Tkachuk will be able to suit up for the Winter Classic, but that’s another factor that could sway the NHL outdoor game odds.

While Tkachuk’s status remains up in the air, the Panthers will certainly be without captain Aleksander Barkov, who has only begun light skating after suffering an ACL and MCL injury during training camp.

Despite all the injuries, the Panthers have not struggled to score at all this season. Florida is averaging 3.18 goals per game, tied for 11th in the league, while they’ve been even better since their hot streak started on December 6 (3.69 GF/GP).

The Panthers are the clear favorite on paper and will be even stronger if Tkachuk is good to go. I’m taking the home favorites on the moneyline as my Panthers Winter Classic prediction.

Best Props for the Winter Classic

Over 5.5 Goals

Outdoor games were generally low-scoring contests once upon a time. In fact, seven of the NHL’s first nine outdoor games finished with five total goals or fewer. That trend has changed in recent years, however, possibly due to improvements in technology, as outdoor ice now plays similarly to regular NHL arenas.

That said, there have been over 5.5 goals in five of the last six outdoor games since 2023, while each of the last four contests have featured at least eight goals. Will that trend hold during the 2026 Winter Classic? It could depend on ice conditions. The projected weather for Friday night is mostly sunny with a high of 73 degrees and a low of 55, making it the warmest environment ever for an outdoor game.

I trust that after 20-plus years of running outdoor games, the NHL knows what it’s doing with its ice, which suggests that the pace of play shouldn’t be impacted too much by Mother Nature. It’s tough to speculate why recent outdoor games have been so high-scoring, but if you put stock into that trend, it could make sense to bet Over 5.5 goals on Friday night.

Brad Marchand Anytime Goal

Brad Marchand has found the fountain of youth at age 37 with a team-high 23 goals in just 38 games, already equal to his output from last season. The Panthers forward has never scored 40 goals in a season, but he’s on pace for close to 50 in 2025-26.

Marchand, who was officially named to Team Canada’s Olympic roster on Wednesday, has found the back of the net in three straight games entering the Winter Classic, while he has nine total tallies in his last nine outings.

The veteran is clicking on the Panthers’ second line alongside Carter Verhaeghe and Sam Bennett, and I think Marchand stays hot with another goal against the Rangers.

How to Bet the Winter Classic

The Winter Classic is one of the greatest spectacles of the NHL season, but it’s also a game that comes with some unique betting quirks.

Betting lines are especially volatile for outdoor games, given various unpredictable factors such as weather and ice conditions. Outdoor ice conditions used to result in generally low-scoring games, but we’ve actually seen the Over cash in each of the last four outdoor games as ice technology has improved.

Live betting is always a popular wagering strategy for hockey, especially late in games. When a team is up by one or two goals in the final few minutes, the trailing team will almost always pull their goalie for an extra attacker. Bettors can take advantage by picking the winning team to cover the puck line (-1.5 or -2.5) early in the third period.

Summary

The Panthers are the favorites over the Rangers in the 2026 Winter Classic, while recent history suggests that this could be a surprisingly high-scoring game. Each of the last four outdoor games have featured at least eight goals, and with the total set at just 5.5 goals for this matchup, it could be smart to play the Over.

Marchand is leading a high-powered Florida offense with 23 goals in 38 games, and I’m backing the veteran to continue his hot streak with another tally versus New York.

No matter how you bet on the Winter Classic, it’s important to always wager responsibly, which starts with proper bankroll management.

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Author Avatar
About the Author

Chris Faria graduated from the sports journalism program at Centennial College in Toronto in 2019 and currently works for NHL Public Relations. He’s also freelanced for several outlets throughout his career, including Odds Shark, Covers, and the Canadian Olympic Committee.

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