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The NCAA Tournament is expanding from 68 to 76 teams, and the March Madness expansion is bigger than just adding eight more games. The First Four is out. A new 12-game Opening Round is in. And the bracket you’ve been betting for the last two decades is about to look different.
I’m breaking down exactly how the new format works, what it does to seeding and upset probability, and what the early 2027 betting lines look like so you can get ahead of the market before it moves.
How Many Teams Are in March Madness Now?
Pending the formal announcement in May, the NCAA Tournament will not have 76 teams. This latest move increases the field from 68 teams, meaning eight more teams will punch their tickets to the big dance every year.
The 64-team bracket that we all know and love will still start on Thursday. However, the First Four that used to precede the First Round is gone.
Instead, the newly crowned Opening Round will consist of 12 games. This round will be played on Tuesday and Wednesday after Selection Sunday and before the start of Round One. All 12 games will be split between two host cities, creating new March Madness betting opportunities.
The field for the Opening round will include the traditional eight teams from the First Four and eight new teams that receive at-large bids. The remaining eight teams will be schools that previously would have been auto-slotted into the tournament.
History of March Madness Expansion
The first NCAA Tournament in 1939 only featured eight teams. It has expanded more than half a dozen times since then, including:
- 1951: Expanded to 16 teams
- 1976: Doubled to 32 teams
- 1979: Expanded to 40 teams
- 1980: Grew to 48 teams
- 1985: Expanded to 64 teams
- 2001: 65th team added via play-in game
- 2011: Expanded to 68 teams, and the First Four was created
Assuming the new 76-team tournament is approved, it will be the biggest expansion since the mid-1980s.
How the New Opening Round Works
In the days of the First Four, two 16 seeds and two 12 seeds were determined in four opening games proper to the First Round. The expanded Opening Round will bring even more uncertainty to the lower seeds of March Madness.
The Opening Round is expected to consist of:
- 4 games for 16-seeds
- 2 games for 15-seeds
- 4 games for 12-seeds
- 2 games for 11th or 13th seeds
For starters, all 16th seeds will earn their way into the tournament. Previously, only two of the four 16th seeds were up for grabs in the First Four.
Also, two of the four 15th seeds will now place for their spot in the Opening Round.
Arguably, the biggest change is that now all four 12 seeds will be determined on the court. Traditionally, 12 seeds went to the lowest-ranked automatic-bid teams, with the weakest playing in the First Four.
The remaining games will be for either the 11th or 13th seeds. More clarity on these remaining games is expected with the formal NCAA Tournament expansion announcement.
In total, 24 teams will compete in 12 games in a tripleheader format on Tuesday and Wednesday, leading up to Thursday’s 64-team tournament.
The 12-Seed Upset Narrative Just Changed
Identifying the right 12-5 seed upset was key to having a high-scoring bracket for many years. Historically, at least one 12 seed would upset a 5 seed in roughly 60% of tournaments.
In past tournaments, half of the 12 seeds received byes, while the other two earned their spots in the First Four. Under the new system, though, all four of the number 12 seeds will be determined in the Opening Round.
This change could effectively eliminate the 12-over-5 upset that many bettors looked for when betting on March Madness. A tune-up game could help some teams, but it will also give 12 seeds less rest, making them less likely to pull off an upset. It also lowers their pre-tournament odds by decreasing their chances of even making the top 64.
On the other hand, the new Opening Round could create new upset trends.
Half of the 15th seeds will have to play for a spot. However, the two given extra rest will still be the 2-seed play, making an upset unlikely.
The extra rest given to some 11th and 13th seeds, though, could have an impact. In theory, 11th seeds should have the biggest advantage as they play 6th seeds, while 13th seeds have to play 4th seeds.
Betting the Opening Round: Lines, Markets, and Strategy
The latest March Madness expansion also means there will be more markets for bettors to choose from. Instead of four opening games to bet on, there will be 12.
Also, the matchups themselves will differ from traditional tournament betting. Two teams facing off to be a 16th seed will be much closer on paper than most matchups you will see in March Madness.
These games will have tighter lines. While it makes for more exciting games, it is also tougher for inexperienced bettors to choose winning bets.
Information may be limited on some teams in the Open Round, making it even more important to research every matchup. Sharp bettors who do their research will have a bigger edge over the public in the Open Round.
Check out our March Madness betting strategy guide to learn more about finding value in the newly constructed Opening Round of the NCAA Tournament.
How Expansion Affects March Madness Futures Betting
Expanding the number of at-large teams competing for lower seeds weakens the field. As a result, the value of the tournament margins contracts, weakening your futures betting options.
In the 2026 March Madness odds, for instance, teams like Oklahoma (19-15), Auburn (17-16)l, and Indiana (18-14) all missed the cut. However, these bubble teams would receive at-large bids in the new format to compete for a ticket to the Big Dance.
Adding more bubble teams to the Opening Round also increases your options for longshot betting. There will be eight more potential Cinderellas hoping to go on a historic run every March.
Odds for top favorites are unlikely to be affected. They could shorten slightly as their opponents will be less rested ahead of the First Round.
The value will change in the middle-tier contenders. Teams that were listed in the 15-1 to 30-1 range will have more value now as they have a better chance of making a run in a weaker field.
2027 March Madness Odds: Early Title Favorites
The early 2027 March Madness favorites at BetUS, before the official expansion announcement, include:
- Duke (+700)
- Michigan (+700)
- Florida (+700)
- Connecticut (+1200)
- Arizona (+1600)
- Illinois (+1600)
- Houston (+1800)
- Arkansas (+1800)
- Louisville (+2000)
- Michigan State (+2200)
- Texas (+2200)
Michigan is the defending champion, so it is not surprising that they are tied for the best odds. Likewise, Duke and Florida are perennial contenders and no strangers to the top of NCAA Tournament odds boards.
There are odds for dozens of teams, including sleepers such as Michigan State (+2200) and St. John’s (+2800), both of which are coming off Sweet 16 Runs.
As mentioned above, these odds were set before the NCAA’s official announcement on tournament expansion. So, some odds may shift in the coming weeks even though the tournament is nearly a year away.
How to Update Your Bracket Betting Strategy
Here are some tips to prepare you for the first-ever 76-team March Madness tournament:
- Account for expanded Opening Round games
- Survivor and round-by-round tournaments will have new scoring systems
- 12-seeds no longer offer a must-pick upset
For starters, you need to account for the expanded Opening Round. This includes studying up on eight new at-large teams. Also, you should avoid advancing these seeds automatically without researching their opening round opponent.
The First Four offered minimal points, if any, in most bracket tournament formats. However, now that there will be 12 games instead of 4, these games could offer a great chance to build an early lead over the competition.
Also, since every 12th seed will be determined in the opening round, the typical 12-over-5 advice is likely going out the window. 11th and 13th seeds, though, could offer a similar advantage going forward as some will have additional rest by not playing in the Opening Round.
See the new look 2027 March Madness bracket here.
Are You a Fan of NCAA Tournament Expansion?
The new 76-team field brings a lot of changes for March Madness bettors, including a bigger Opening Round, new upset betting strategies, and more at-large betting options. Adjusting to these changes early will give you an edge over other bettors next March.
Staying up to date with the latest March Madness expansion news and tournament changes is important. Visit our March Madness betting hub for more updates on the 2027 tournament.
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