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Changes are coming to the Democratic Party, but they are not the ones progressives have been calling for. On July 24th, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) voted on the first states that will hold 2028 presidential primaries. The newly proposed schedule has already started to reshape the 2028 democratic presidential nominee betting markets.
Democrats 2028 Primary Calendar
With primary season right around the corner, the next few months can be crucial to US political betting markets.
Last week, the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee approved these states to host the early democratic primaries for 2028:
- South Carolina – January 22nd, 2028
- Nevada – February 1st, 2028
- New Hampshire – February 8th, 2028
- New Mexico – February 15th, 2028
- Michigan – February 22nd, 2028
- Virginia – February 29th, 2028
Selecting South Carolina to lead off the 2028 primaries was a major change. The biggest change, though, was shunning Iowa from the early primary calendar altogether. In theory, moving the early primaries to more diverse states will help the DNC select a candidate that better plays to their base.
The calendar is not set in stone yet and must be approved at the upcoming DNC meeting in August.
Latest Odds to be 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee
The following democratic nominee odds were provided by BetOnline.
- Gavin Newsom (+250)
- Jon Ossoff (+475)
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (+550)
- Kamala Harris (+700)
- Pete Buttigieg (+1400)
- Josh Shapiro (+1800)
California Governor Gavin Newsom (+250) has been the favorite to win the Democratic nomination for nearly two years. Newsom’s lead has faded, though, and Jon Ossoff (+475) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (+550) are close behind. 2024 nominee Kamala Harris (+700) and former US Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg (+1400) round out the top five.
Gavin Newsom (+250)
Newsom assumed the role as one of the most prominent anti-Trump figures after the Democrats fumbled the 2024 election. However, his shortcomings as the California governor will be easy targets for the other presidential hopefuls in debates. He is also trying to walk a fine line in supporting Israel while criticizing PM Benjamin Netanyahu, which will be difficult to continue to do.
Jon Ossoff (+475)
No potential candidate has shot up the odds boards in recent months as much as Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff. He recently passed AOC for second in this betting market.
Starting the primaries in neighboring South Carolina could help Ossoff gain an early lead. Unlike other top candidates, though, Ossoff is not a recognizable name in most parts of the country other than Trump’s continued attempts to overturn the 2020 election.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (+550)
AOC (+550) could be the best bet to beat Newsom for the nomination. She has already made efforts to reach out to right-wing voters across the country and received a surprising amount of support from split-ticket MAGA voters in 2024. The success of other DSA candidates, such as Zohran Mamdani, could also help AOC in 2028.
Kamala Harris (+700)
Kamala Harris is also in the top four at 7-1 odds to be the 2028 nominee. She lost the 2024 election but still earned over 75 million votes despite having only 107 days to campaign. As impressive as that feat was, Harris’s attempt to recruit centrist and right-wing voters turned off many on the left, and she has only continued to lose support from progressives in the years since.
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