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Reviews of Online Gambling Sites 2026 NFL First Coach Fired Odds: Will Dan Quinn Survive the Season?
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Dan Quinn enters the 2026 season with the shortest odds of being the first coach fired this season. Quinn is listed at +200 odds, just ahead of Todd Bowles and Aaron Glenn. All three coaches failed to meet expectations last year, but Quinn is under the most pressure to win now while Jayden Daniels is still on his rookie contract.
Keep reading to see the latest odds of being the first coach fired this NFL season. I break down the top favorites and explain why each coach is in the hot seat to start the year. Also, I will tell you my pick for the first coach fired in 2026.
2026 NFL First Coach Fired Odds
Check out the table below to see the preseason favorites to be the first NFL coach fired this year, according to top football betting sites.
| Coach | BetUS | BetOnline |
|---|---|---|
| Dan Quinn (WAS) | +200 | +200 |
| Todd Bowles (TB) | +250 | +350 |
| Aaron Glenn (NYJ) | +300 | +400 |
| Zac Taylor (CIN) | +800 | +900 |
| Shane Steichen (IND) | +800 | +1000 |
| David Canales (CAR) | +800 | +1000 |
| Kevin O’Connell (MIN) | +1800 | +2000 |
| Brian Schottenheimer (DAL) | +2000 | +2500 |
| Nick Sirianni (PHI) | +2000 | +2500 |
| Robert Saleh (TEN) | +2200 | +2500 |
| Mike Vrabel (NE) | +2500 | +2500 |
The final prices for the first coach fired that I was able to find before the season kicks off have Dan Quinn favored to be let go first in 2026. BetUS and BetOnline both have Washington’s coach listed as the 2-1 favorite.
After Quinn, top NFL sportsbooks agree on Todd Bowles (TB) and Aaron Glenn (NYJ) being the next most at risk. However, they differ on the price.
BetUS has Bowles and Glenn at +250 and +300, respectively. BetOnline, on the other hand, has Bowles at +350 and Glenn at +400. So, if you are planning on betting on a favorite other than Quinn, BetOnline offers the better value.
The Nerd’s Verdict on the 1st Coach Fired in 2026
- Verdict: Bet on Aaron Glenn to be fired first
- Best captured price: BetOnline lists Gleen at +400 as of Sept. 3rd
- Break-even probability: 20%
- Target price: Even-money or longer odds
- Primary risk: Geno Smith is better than expected.
- Confidence: High – The Jets were historically bad in 2025.
Why Aaron Glenn Is the Best Bet to Be Fired 1st
My pick for the first coach fired this season is Aaron Glenn, who is listed at +400 odds at BetOnline as of September 3rd.
Glenn is entering his second year as the Jets’ head coach, and New York was one of the worst teams in the NFL last season, finishing with a 3-14 record. The Jets being bad is nothing new, but they were historically bad in 2025, becoming the first team to finish a season without forcing an interception.
The Jets added many talented rookies in the draft, but they are still missing their franchise QB. Geno Smith is set to be the starter, and he is just 42-56 as a starter, including a 12-18 record in his first stint with the Jets.
New York also has a history of firing coaches early. The team has had nine coaches since 2000, and only two of them, Herm Edwards (2001-2005) and Rex Ryan (2009-2014), have coached the Jets for five or more years.
The Jets’ front office has fired coaches midseason, too. Most recently, they fired Robert Saleh five games into the 2024 season.
If Glenn wants to avoid being the first head coach fired this year, he needs the Jets to win games early in the season. Smith showed he could play winning football when he was with the Seahawks, earning 28 of his 42 career wins with Seattle. If the right Geno shows up and the Jets’ defense takes several steps forward, they could surprise some teams early and prevent Glenn from being fired.
Who the Market Picks to Be the 1st NFL Coach Fired
BetOnline and BetUS both have Dan Quinn as the favorite to be the first coach fired at 2-1 odds. His +200 odds imply a 33.33% win probability.
Quinn and the Commanders made it to the NFC Championship Game in 2024, thanks in large part to a Rookie of the Year performance from Jayden Daniels. They fell off significantly in 2025, finishing 5-12, and Daniels missed 10 games due to injury.
Daniels has had a rough offseason, too, after a public dispute with his alma mater, LSU.
On the bright side, Daniels proved his skill set works in the NFL when he is healthy. Washington also has an average strength of schedule this year of 0.502, much easier than that of other teams with coaches in danger of being fired. If Quinn can replicate the success his franchise QB had in 2024, he will avoid a pink slip this season.
Why Quinn, Bowles, and Glenn are Favored to Be Fired 1st
Quinn, Bowles, and Glenn share key characteristics that make them favorites to be fired midseason:
- Losing records in 2025
- Low win total projections in 2026
- Tough opening schedules
One factor the market is missing, though, is the impact of a franchise QB. Quinn has Jayden Daniels, and Bowles has Baker Mayfield. Both QBs have winning records with their current teams.
Aaron Glenn does not have the luxury in New York, with Geno Smith lining up under center. So, even though Quinn is the more likely winner, Glenn is the better bet.
The Jets also had a much worse record in 2025 than the Commanders or Buccaneers. New York was 3-14, tied for the worst record in the league. Washington was also bad at 5-12, while the Buccaneers tied for the best record in the NFC South at 8-9.
All three teams have low win projections in 2026, too. BetUS has the following win projections for these franchises:
- New York Jets over/under 5.5 wins
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers over/under 7.5 wins
- Washington Commanders over/under 8.5 wins
The Jets have one of the lowest win projections of any team this year at 5.5 wins. Tampa Bay and Washington, on the other hand, are expected to finish around .500 this season.
Factors That Get Coaches Fired Midseason
Some of the most common factors that lead to coaches being fired midseason include:
- Poor performance
- “Losing” the locker room
- Inpatient owners
- Front offices are turning toward the future
- Off-the-field scandals
Losing leads to more coaches being fired than any other shortcoming. If a coach is being fired midseason, though, it is usually because they have lost consistently over multiple seasons.
Speaking of losing, even if a coach is winning the field, they can still be on the hot seat if they “lose” the locker room. Conflicts between coaches and team leaders are tough to predict, but coaches with a history of struggling with players can be targets for firing.
Coaches also need to worry about the owner and front office growing impatient. Carolina, for example, has had seven head coaches and interim coaches since David Tepper bought the team in 2018.
Off-the-field scandals can also lead to coaches being fired before the season is over. Urban Meyer famously only had a 13-game stint as the Jaguars’ head coach in 2021, tied for the fourth-shortest coaching tenure in NFL history. Despite being in town for less than a year, Meyer had multiple off-the-field scandals and kicked a player.
How Coaches Can Get Off the Hot Seat
The single best way for any coach to get off the hot seat is to win games. For Quinn, Bowles, and Glenn, winning early is the only way to guarantee they are not the first coach fired.
Unfortunately, winning will be tough for all three coaches. Their opening schedules include:
| Week | Commanders | Buccaneers | Jets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Eagles | @ Bengals | @ Titans |
| Week 2 | @ Cowboys | Browns | Packers |
| Week 3 | Seahawks | Vikings | @ Lions |
| Week 4 | Colts | Packers | @ Bears |
| Week 5 | Giants | @ Cowboys | Browns |
All three have challenging opening slates, but Quinn and Bowles have franchise QBs to lean on. Glenn, conversely, is relying on journeyman QB Geno Smith.
The Jets also play three of their first four games on the road, and their first home game is against Green Bay. For what it is worth, BetUS has the Jets listed at +550 odds to be 0-5 through their first five games. The Bucs and Commanders are 22-1 and 10-1, respectively, in that market.
Which Coach Do You Think Will Be Fired 1st?
Dan Quinn is the betting favorite, but Aaron Glenn is the best bet to be the first coach fired in 2026. He is available at 4-1 odds at BetOnline, while BetUS is only offering 3-1 odds on Glenn. Expect Glenn’s odds to shorten if the Jets get off to a slow start in Tennessee.
(Photo by AP Photo/Adam Hunger)
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