Public Betting Consensus

What is Public Consensus Betting?

Public consensus betting data highlights which side of a bet has attracted the highest volume of wagers. For example, you might see that 72% of bets have been placed on the Kansas City Chiefs to cover the spread.

Sportsbooks often respond to these trends by offering less attractive lines on the popular team and more appealing lines on the unpopular team. Sharp bettors then swoop in, wagering on the unpopular team when the terms become more attractive. This is known as fading the public.

Some of the world’s most popular online sportsbooks publish betting consensus data. They simply reveal which side of a bet has received the majority of the action from their customers. For example, you might see that 62% of bettors on a particular site have backed “over” on a total points line, and 38% have gone for “under.”

However, the best data typically comes from aggregators. Sites like Odds Shark will collect betting data from a wide range of online sportsbooks. They will then use this information to estimate the overall public consensus.

These stats are unlikely to be absolutely precise, as some sportsbooks don’t share detailed information. However, the data tends to provide a reasonably accurate snapshot of public betting sentiment.

Here are some useful sources of this data:

• Odds Shark – NFL Consensus Picks
• Odds Shark – NBA Consensus Picks

Spotting discrepancies between the number of bets placed and the amount of money wagered can help you identify where the sharp money is going, and in turn, make more informed wagers overall.

Public Money vs Sharp Money

Sports bettors fall into two broad categories:

• Squares: This term refers to the general sports betting public. Squares are casual or recreational bettors. Many squares simply back their favorite team each week, without conducting a great deal of research. They are often heavily influenced by recent performances, media narratives, hype, and star players.
• Sharps: This refers to professionals or highly skilled sports bettors. They’re also known as wiseguys. Sharps strip emotion from the betting process, and they focus on expected value rather than loyalty to a particular team.

The public money refers to the bets placed by squares. They generally follow predictable patterns. For example, casual bettors often wager on favorites, they bet on “over” instead of “under” and they chase teams on winning streaks. Their bets often come in close to the start of a game. Online sportsbooks take a very large volume of small to mid-sized bets from squares each week.

By contrast, sharps place fewer bets, but the sums are larger. They often place wagers as soon as the sportsbooks publish their lines, before public sentiment causes the odds to change. Alternatively, they bet just before a game begins, capitalizing on the overinflated lines that are available on unpopular teams. Sharps are often defined by their contrarian nature, and their decisions can influence the market.

It can be useful to figure out where the sharp money is going, as it can help you make astute picks. There are a few potential ways to identify sharp action, and we’ve provided some examples in this chart:

How You Can Use Consensus Betting Data to Your Advantage

You can unlock several benefits by assessing public consensus betting data. These are some of the key advantages:

Fading the Public

Public betting data highlights opportunities to bet on an unpopular team at artificially inflated terms. Here’s a hypothetical example:

• Let’s say the sportsbooks install the LA Lakers as 4.5-point favorites against the Memphis Grizzlies. They have analyzed the relative strengths and weaknesses of both teams, and they determined that the Lakers should win by around 4-5 points.
• The majority of basketball bettors decide to back the Lakers to cover the spread. After all, they’ve been playing well, and they have a larger fan base than the Grizzlies.
• Online sportsbooks react to public sentiment by offering less attractive terms on the Lakers and more appealing terms on the Grizzlies. They do so to spread out their risk, encouraging more people to bet on Memphis.
• As the game approaches, the line has shifted, and the Lakers are now 6.5-point favorites. At this point, some sharp bettors might decide to fade the public by betting on the Grizzlies +6.5 at odds of -110.

That could be a shrewd decision, as the sportsbooks – who can access a wealth of data – only expect the Grizzlies to lose by 4-5 points. It’s not a foolproof strategy, but it can help you identify attractive lines on unpopular teams.

Essentially, the public often bets blindly on favorites, big teams with star players, recent winners, and “over” on total points lines. As such, value often lies in the unpopular side of the bet after public sentiment causes the line to move.

Consensus Gaps

Spotting consensus gaps can help you identify which bets the sharps are placing. You simply need to compare the percentage of wagers placed with the percentage of money wagered on each side of a bet.

If the percentage of money wagered on one side is significantly greater than the percentage of bets placed, it could show you that the sharps are backing the unpopular team. Look for a consensus betting gap of at least 10%.

For example, if 32% of bets are placed on a team to win a game, but 48% of the money has been wagered on that team, it could indicate sharp interest. These discrepancies can be especially valuable early in the betting cycle, when sharps place their wagers before public money floods the market. The gaps can be particularly revealing when it comes to betting on totals (over/under), as sharps often exploit weak opening lines.

Overinflated Lines

This situation occurs when the public piles into one side of a bet. The sportsbooks move the line to protect themselves and attract bets on the other side. This leads to artificially inflated terms on the unpopular team.

It’s not too difficult to spot overinflated lines. The public money drags these lines in a particular direction, even though there’s no real justification for this line movement. For example:

• The Dallas Cowboys might open as 2.5-point underdogs at the start of the week, but they might then be 4.5-point favorites by the day of the game.
• That line movement could occur despite nothing fundamentally changing in terms of the relative strengths and weaknesses of the teams. For instance, there hasn’t been any breaking injury news.
• In that case, the line may have simply moved because the Cowboys are popular, and their fans often just blindly bet on them to cover. It leads to an overinflated line, so sharp bettors may decide to fade Dallas (bet on the opposing team to cover) after it moves.

Overinflated lines are especially common when it comes to betting on totals. Most people are optimists, and they also like to see high-scoring games, so they tend to bet on “over.” The media fuels this trend by focusing heavily on star offensive players in the build-up to a game.

You may find -110 on over 42.5 points and -110 on under 42.5 points at the start of the week, but the line could have moved to 45.5 points by the day of the game. In that case, betting on under 45.5 points at -110 would be an attractive option.

When to Follow the Public

Sometimes the public is right. Here are a few potential scenarios:

• Games with a low betting volume and a high public consensus. If more than 70% of bets have been placed on one team in a relatively obscure game, that team could have a legitimate edge.
• No consensus gap. If one side of a bet attracts a high percentage of individual wagers and a similar percentage of the total money wagered, it suggests that the sharps and squares agree.
• Mismatches. The public money is often right in early season games, when sportsbooks haven’t yet nailed down the main strengths and weaknesses of each team. This is especially true of college sports games.

Essentially, you need to figure out whether one side of a bet is justifiably popular, or if it is simply down to square bettors blindly tailing an overestimated team.

Putting it Together

Here’s a sample checklist that you could use when analyzing data on consensus bets:

• Is one side attracting more than 70% of bets?
• Is there a gap between the percentage of bets placed and the percentage of money wagered?
• Has the line moved in a contrary direction to the public betting consensus?
• Is the betting public overreacting to hype in the media, or is there a genuine reason for the line movement (e.g. an injury to a key player)?
• Are there any reasons to trust the public here (e.g. an early season mismatch)?

You could ask those questions in a bid to find value when betting on your favorite sports.

Common Mistakes Bettors Make When Using Consensus Data

Betting consensus data is useful, but many sports fans misuse or misinterpret it. Here are some common mistakes that bettors often make:

1. Blindly Fading the Public

It would be a mistake to simply bet against the public consensus on every game. Not all public consensus bets are bad. Sometimes the public and the sharps agree. You can avoid this mistake by only fading the public when the data supports it – for example, a reverse line movement or a consensus gap.

2. Ignoring the Percentage of Money Wagered

Some bettors solely focus on the percentage of bets placed, while ignoring the percentage of money wagered. Percentage of bets placed data only tells you the popularity of each side. It doesn’t show you where the sharp money is going.

3. Misreading Line Movement

It would also be a mistake to assume that every line movement highlights sharp money or a chance to fade the public. Sometimes lines move due to breaking injury news, weather changes and other external factors.

4. Treating All Betting Consensus Sources as Equal

Don’t simply trust any site that shows consensus data without questioning its source. Some sites only use data from one or two sportsbooks. Others only report the percentage of bets placed and not the money wagered. It’s important to use reputable aggregators like Odds Shark and Covers. Ideally, cross-check between sites to gain a comprehensive picture of the public betting consensus.

Bet Smart with Consensus Data

Public betting consensus data can help you make educated picks. It helps you identify where the sharp bettors are putting their money to work, and it highlights opportunities to pounce on artificially weak lines.

However, it’s equally important to conduct thorough research into the game. That allows you to make an astute decision about whether the line is genuinely inflated.

Looking to put your new knowledge to the test at an online sportsbook? Check out our favorite sports betting sites today.