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UFC 316 Dvalishvili vs. O’Malley 2 Odds and Picks

UFC 316 is headlined by not one, but two thrilling bantamweight title fights. Merab Dvalishvili will defend his UFC Bantamweight title against Sean O’Malley in a rematch of their UFC 306 fight. Also, Julianna Peña will put her Women’s Bantamweight title on the line against Kayla Harrison.

This guide highlights the latest UFC odds for these title fights and the rest of this Saturday’s card. I will detail the current betting lines from top MMA betting sites and give my UFC 316 predictions.

UFC 316 Betting Odds

UFC 316 is scheduled for Saturday, June 7th, at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. Here are the current odds for this event, courtesy of BetOnline.

Favorite	Underdog	Weight Class
Kevin Holland (-280)	Vicente Luque (+240)	Welterweight
Patchy Mix (-180)	Mario Bautista (+155)	Bantamweight
Joe Pyfer (-355)	Kelvin Gastelum (+280)	Middleweight
Kayla Harrison (-600)	Julianna Peña (c) (+425)	Women’s Bantamweight
Merab Dvalishvili (c) (-265)	Sean O’Malley (+225)	Bantamweight

Dvalishvili beat O’Malley by unanimous decision for the Bantamweight title at UFC 306. The champ is a -265 favorite to retain his belt this weekend.

Peña, on the other hand, is a sizeable underdog heading into the first title defense of her second reign as Women’s Bantamweight Champion. She is listed at +425 to retain against Harrison (-600) on Saturday.

Kevin Holland (-280), Patchy Mix (-180), and Joe Pyfer (-355) are also favored this weekend against Vicente Luque (+240), Mario Bautista (+155), and Kelvin Gastelum (+280), respectively.

Kevin Holland (-280) vs. Vicente Luque (+240)

The opening bout of the UFC 316 main card is a Welterweight fight between Kevin Holland and Vicent Luque. Secure sports betting sites have Halland as the -280 favorite for this fight.

Both fighters have struggled in their recent Octagon appearances. Luque has lost three of his last five fights. Likewise, Holland is only 2-4 in his previous six fights.

Neither fighter has fared well in fights decided by the judges. Luque is 3-6 and Holland is 5-7 in fights that go the distance.

Some of Holland’s recent struggles in the UFC have been at Middleweight. He has been better at 170 pounds and should have the power advantage over Luque on Saturday. Holland has 22 finishes in his career, including 13 knockouts.

Luque, on the other hand, has 20 finishes in his pro career, including 11 knockouts. The “Silent Assassin” has struggled against top-tier Welterweights, though, and will be at a five-inch reach disadvantage this weekend.

Patchy Mix (-180) vs. Mario Bautista (+155)

Next up is a Bantamweight fight between Patchy Mix (20-1) and Mario Bautista (15-2). The winner of this fight could put themselves in position to challenge for the Bantamweight title.

Bautista is 9-2 in the UFC and has won his last seven fights. At 5’9, Bautista is big for 135 pounds. However, he only has four finishes in his 11 Octagon appearances, and just one knockout.

Mix, 5’11, is also large for a Bantamweight. He is making his UFC debut after a 9-1 run in Bellator that included wins over Sergio Pettis, Magomed Magomedov, and Raufeon Stots. Mix was the Bellator Bantamweight Champion and had two successful title defenses before leaving PFL.

After signing his contract in mid-May, Mix was quickly booked to face Bautista as a replacement for the injured Marlon Vera.

Mix has a 2.5-inch reach advantage, but that will likely be minimized. Both fighters favor grappling, with Bautista having six submission wins and Mix having 13. Mix has the advantage on paper, but he would not be the first star from other promotions to struggle when making the jump to the UFC.

Joe Pyfer (-355) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (+280)

This Saturday’s PPV main card will also feature a Middleweight showdown between Joe Pyfer (13-3) and Kelvin Gastelum (19-9). Pyfer is younger, bigger, and a star on the rise at 185 pounds, so it is not surprising that he is a -355 favorite.

Gastelum, who is entering his 24th UFC fight, is only 3-6 in his last nine appearances in the Octagon. There is no denying that Gastelum has struggled in recent years, but the veteran should not be counted out completely.

Two of Gastelum’s last three wins have come against rising stars like Pyfer. He beat Ian Heinisch and Daniel Rodriguez, who were 14-3 and 17-4, respectively, before facing Gastelum.

Pyfer has two advantages over Heinisch and Rodriguez, though. First and foremost, he is much younger.

He is not entering his fight against Gastelum on a losing streak. Pyfer is 4-1 in the UFC, with his only loss in the promotion coming against Jack Hermansson in February 2024.

After losing to Hermansson, Pyfer bounced back with a first-round knockout win over Marc-André Barriault last June. Pyfer has had nearly a year off since that fight, so he should be well-rested for his upcoming fight against a gatekeeper like Gastelum.

Kayla Harrison (-600) vs. Julianna Peña (c) (+425)

The co-main event of UFC 316 will have a major effect on the future of the Women’s Bantamweight division. Julianna Peña will attempt to defend her title against Kayla Harrison.

BetOnline lists Peña as a +425 underdog this weekend against Harrison (-600). Despite being in her second title reign, Peña is still searching for her first successful title defense.

Peña first won the title at UFC 269 with a shocking submission win over Amanda Nunes. However, in the rematch, Nunes convincingly beat Peña by unanimous decision. Peña won the belt again at UFC 307, this time via split decision over Raquel Pennington.

Harrison, conversely, is 18-1 in her MMA career and is 2-0 in the Octagon. Before joining the UFC, Harrison went 15-1 in the PFL, with her only loss coming against Larissa Pacheco via unanimous decision.

Her judo background has made Harrison one of the best grapplers in women’s MMA. The two-time Olympic gold medalist has 13 finishes in 18 career wins, including seven submissions. If she can overpower Peña, Harrison could win UFC gold in just her third fight in the Octagon. 

Merab Dvalishvili (c) (-265) vs. Sean O’Malley (+225)

Finally, the main event for UFC 316 is a rematch between Merab Dvalishvili (c) and Sean O’Malley for the UFC Bantamweight Championship. Dvalishvili beat O’Malley for the title at UFC 306.

After winning the belt from O’Malley, Dvalishvili earned his first successful title defense by handing Umar Nurmagomedov his first career loss at UFC 311. O’Malley, on the other hand, has not fought since losing to Dvalishvili last September.

In their first fight, Dvalishvili’s grappling proved to be the difference maker. Despite being five inches shorter and giving up a four-inch reach advantage to O’Malley, Dvalishvili was able to control the fight.

He controlled the center of the Octagon and put consistent pressure on O’Malley. Dvalishvili more than held his own in the stand-up game, landing 214 strikes to O’Malley’s 49. He was also able to land six takedowns during the fight and controlled O’Malley for over 10 minutes. 

The former champion has had nine months to come up with a game plan to beat Dvalishvili. That is a long time to strategize, but it may not have been enough time for O’Malley to improve his takedown defense to the level it needs to be against a grappler as talented as Dvalishvili.

UFC 316 Betting Predictions

UFC 316 will be headlined by two exciting title fights in the UFC’s Bantamweight division. First, Kayle Harrison will attempt to win her first UFC gold as she challenges Julianna Peña. Then, Merab Dvalishvili will look for his second title defense in a rematch of his UFC 306 fight against former champion, “Suga” Sean O’Malley.

Here are my predictions for every fight on the main card for this weekend’s UFC PPV.

• Vicente Luque (+240) defeats Kevin Holland
• Mario Bautista (+155) defeats Patchy Mix
• Joe Pyfer (-355) defeats Kelvin Gastelum
• Kayla Harrison (-600) defeats Julianna Peña (c)
• Merab Dvalishvili (c) (-265) defeats Sean O’Malley (+225)

Luque and Bautista are underdogs against Holland and Mix, respectively. Despite the odds, I think Bautista and Luque can pull out the upset wins this weekend.

Pyfer is a rising star in a Middleweight division that is desperate for new challengers. A win this weekend could propel Pyfer into the top 15 and move him one step closer to a future title shot.

For the main event title fights, I am sticking with the oddsmakers. Harrison is an improved version of Ronda Rousey, and she will fulfill her destiny this weekend by becoming the latest judoka to win UFC gold with a win over Peña. Dvalishvili, on the other hand, will retain with another dominant performance against O’Malley.

How to Bet on UFC 316 Dvalishvili vs. O’Malley 2

The current UFC 316 odds predict an exciting night of fights this weekend at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. Check out the guide above for the updated betting lines and my predictions for this Saturday’s PPV main card.

You can wager on your UFC 316 picks at BetOnline. If you claim the No Strings Welcome Bonus, you can get $250 in free bets for this MMA PPV.