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UFC 317 Odds and Predictions: Topuria vs. Oliveira

The upcoming UFC 317 PPV event will take place on Saturday, June 28th, at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. Two thrilling title bouts headline the five-fight main card. Alexandre Pantoja seeks his fourth Flyweight Championship defense against Kai Kara-France.

Then, in the main event, the undefeated Ilia Topuria will face Charles Oliveira for the vacant Lightweight Championship. Keep reading for a closer look at the UFC 317 card. I will break down the main card fights and analyze the latest odds from top MMA betting sites.

UFC 317 Main Event Odds – Topuria vs. Oliveira

See the table below for the latest Topuria vs. Oliveira odds, courtesy of BetUS.

Fighter	UFC 317 Odds	Total Rounds
Ilia Topuria	-500	Under 1.5 rounds (+118)
Charles Oliveira	+369	Over 1.5 rounds (-140)

Islam Makhachev, the former Lightweight Champion, vacated the belt in May 2025 to facilitate a move to Welterweight. Makhachev will challenge for the 170-pound belt, and either Ilia Topuria or Charles Oliveira will replace him as the 155-pound king.

Topuria is a -500 favorite to beat Oliveira. Like Makhachev, Topuria is moving up weight classes. He defeated Alexander Volkanovski for the 145-pound title at UFC 298 and then defended the belt against Max Holloway at UFC 308.

Oliveira, on the other hand, briefly held the Lightweight title after defeating Michael Chandler for the belt at UFC 262. He defended the belt once, beating Dustin Poirier at UFC 269.

However, Oliveira was stripped of the belt after he failed to make weight at UFC 274. At UFC 280, Oliveira lost to Makhachev with the vacant belt on the line. He was forced out of his rematch with Makhachev after suffering a cut in training.

Check out our BetUS review to learn more about why this sportsbook is the best place to bet on UFC 317.

Ilia Topuria (-500)

Ilia Topuria’s reign at the top of the Featherweight division was short, but that does not mean it was unimpressive. Topuria took the belt from Alexander Volkanovski, one of the most dominant champions in the division’s history.

Topuria also defended the belt against Max Holloway, who, like Volkanovski, had a legendary reign as the champion at 145 pounds.

The undefeated Topuria will now face yet another former champion. However, this time, the 16-0 fighter will also have to move up in weight. He will be at a height and reach disadvantage as well.

Topuria is listed at 5’7 with a 69-inch reach. Oliverira, for comparison, is 5’10 and has a 74-inch reach.

Charles Oliveira (+369)

Missing weight by half a pound derailed Oliveira’s first Lightweight title reign. However, the UFC veteran can put that behind him with a win over Topuria this weekend.

Oliveira is 23-10, 1 NC in his 24 appearances in the Octagon. His 20 finishes in the UFC are the most in the promotion’s history. He will need to be at his best to take down the former Featherweight king.

The good news for Oliveira is that he has the size advantage in the striking game. He is also a skilled grappler and has 21 submission wins in his career.

On the other hand, Oliveira has been finished in eight of his 10 losses in the UFC. He has been submitted and knocked out four times each. Topuria, who has 14 finishes in his 16 career wins, is a well-rounded fighter who can finish opponents anywhere the fight goes.

Over/Under 1.5 Rounds

• Under 1.5 rounds (+118)
• Over 1.5 rounds (-140)

Topuria vs. Oliveira is scheduled for five rounds. However, the oddsmakers have this title fight listed at over/under 1.5 rounds. The over is only a -140 favorite, so this fight could be over quickly.

Oliveira and Topuria have combined for 45 finishes in their careers, including 25 finishes in the first round. On the other hand, Oliveira has only lost four times in the first round, and Topuria has never lost in his career.

Topuria vs. Oliveira Predictions

Makhachev’s decision to move up to 170 pounds created a vacancy at the top of the Lightweight division. Topuria and Oliveira will square off this weekend to crown a new 155-pound champion.

Oliveira is the more experienced fighter at Lightweight, but he is past his prime. Topuria will struggle to hold onto the belt for long at his size, but he has what it takes to beat the former champion this weekend.

Also, I think this fight will go over 1.5 rounds. Topuria has an excellent finishing rate, but Oliveira’s size could give him issues early in the fight. 

More UFC 317 Odds

The main event Lightweight title fight between Topuria and Oliveira is not the only reason to tune into this weekend’s UFC 317 PPV. Here are the odds for the rest of Saturday’s PPV.

Favorite	Underdog	Weight Class
Felipe Lima (-185)	Payton Talbott (+154)	Bantamweight
Renato Moicano (-120)	Beneil Dariush (+100)	Lightweight
Joshua Van (-125)	Brandon Royval (+105)	Flyweight
Alexandre Pantoja (c) (-250)	Kai Kara-France (+206)	Flyweight

Felipe Lima (-185) vs. Payton Talbott (+154)

The UFC 317 PPV main card opens with a Bantamweight fight between Felipe Lima (14-1) vs. Payton Talbott (9-1). Talbott is a +154 underdog and is coming off his first career loss. Lima, on the other hand, has not lost since his professional debut and is making his third UFC appearance.

Recovering from your first professional loss is never easy, and Talbott is at risk of losing back-to-back fights. He is four inches taller than Lima and has a two-inch reach advantage.

Despite the size disadvantage, it is challenging to pick against Lima in this fight. He fought his first two UFC bouts at Featherweight, so I have no doubts that he can handle Talbott’s size. “Jungle Boy” will win and move to 3-0 in the UFC.

Renato Moicano (-120) vs. Beneil Dariush (+100)

Up next is a Lightweight bout pitting Renato Moicano (-120) vs. Beneil Dariush (+100). Dariush is coming off back-to-back losses. Likewise, Moicano lost in his last appearance, submitting in the first round of his title fight against Makhachev.

Despite the early loss, Moicano is a slight favorite over Dariush this weekend. His loss to Makhachev was just the second time Moicano had been submitted in his career. The 36-year-old is 10-2 in his career in fights decided by submission.

Dariush, for comparison, is also good on the ground and is 8-1 in fights that end with a submission. However, he is just 5-5 in fights with a knockout and has lost his last two fights by TKO.

Both fighters are ranked in the top 15 and could move into title contention with a win. With the exception of his loss to Makhachev, Moicano has looked better lately and is my pick in this fight.

Joshua Van (-125) vs. Brandon Royval (+105)

Joshua Van and Brandon Royval will also square off in a Flyweight fight that could have championship implications down the line. Royval is 2-0 since losing his title fight against Alexandre Pantoja at UFC 296.

Van is 7-1 in the UFC and has won his last four fights. He is the -125 favorite, and could move into title contention with a win over the #1 ranked Royval. Beating Royval is easier said than done, though.

At 5’9, the former title challenger is massive for the division. He will have a four-inch height and a three-inch reach advantage over Van this weekend. Royval is also the better grappler, which should help him win this fight.

Alexandre Pantoja (c) (-250) vs. Kai Kara-France (+206)

Speaking of the Flyweight championship, Alexandre Pantoja will put his belt on the line this weekend against Kai Kara-France. The champion is a -250 favorite over Kara-France (+206) on Saturday.

**https://x.com/ufcontnt/status/1937865083096621547 **

At -250 odds, Pantoja has an implied win probability of 71.43%.

Kara-France is the fourth-ranked Flyweight and is coming off an impressive first-round knockout win over Steve Erceg. However, prior to beating Erceg, Kara-France had lost back-to-back fights to Amir Albazi and Brandon Moreno.

Pantoja is riding a seven-fight win streak and his entering his fifth consecutive title fight. He has also never been stopped, with all five of his career losses coming via decision. The champ will win again this weekend, extending his win streak to eight.

Where to Bet on UFC 317 Odds

The latest UFC 317 odds are packed with great betting opportunities. Check out the guide above for the latest betting lines and my analysis of every main card fight.

Create your BetUS account today to view the updated odds and bet on your picks for UFC 317. As a new member, you can use the code JOIN125 to claim a 125% match on your first three deposits.