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UFC 318 Holloway vs. Poirier Odds and Predictions

The upcoming UFC 318 PPV is headlined by the exciting trilogy fight between Max Holloway and Dustin Poirier. It is Poirier’s retirement fight, and he will attempt to win the BMF Belt before hanging the gloves up for good.

The UFC 318 fight card features five thrilling main card bouts. It all takes place at the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, Louisiana, on Saturday, July 19th. Keep reading to see the latest odds and my picks for this UFC event.

UFC 318 Holloway vs. Poirier Odds

See the table below for the latest UFC 318 odds from top MMA betting sites.

Fighter	UFC 318 Odds	Total Rounds
Max Holloway	-135	Over 4.5 rounds (-155)
Dustin Poirier	+114	Under 4.5 rounds (+130)

BetUS lists Max Holloway as a -135 favorite over Dustin Poirier (+114) in this BMF title fight. Poirier has gotten the better of Holloway in both of their prior matchups. He submitted Holloway at UFC 143 and then won their rematch by decision at UFC 236.

Max Holloway (-135)

Holloway (26-8) rode a 13-fight winning streak to the top of the Featherweight division. However, since challenging Poirier for the vacant Lightweight title at UFC 236, Holloway is just 6-5 in the Octagon.

In his last fight, Holloway lost to Ilia Topuria at UFC 308 in a fight for the Featherweight Championship. He was knocked out in the third round, losing by KO for the first time in his career.

Holloway had a three-fight winning streak before losing to Topuria, including wins over Arnold Allen, Chan Sung Jung, and Justin Gaethje.

He is 22-8 in the UFC, including 11 KO wins and two submission wins in the Octagon. However, he is just 9-6 in the promotion in fights decided by the judges. Holloway is tied with Poirier for the fifth-most wins in UFC history.

Dustin Poirier (+114)

Poirier (30-9, 1 NC) has vanquished Holloway twice, but he is a +114 underdog to win their third matchup. Like Holloway, The Diamond is coming off a loss in a title fight in his last appearance. Poirier was submitted in the fifth round of his fight against Islam Makhachev at UFC 302 for the Lightweight belt.

That fight was over a year ago, so Poirier has had plenty of time to recover. However, he is also just 2-3 in his last five appearances.

Like Holloway, Poirier has 11 KO victories in his UFC career. He also has four submission wins and is 7-1 in fights that go the distance.

Total Rounds

BetUS has the total rounds for Holloway vs. Poirier 3 set at over/under 4.5 rounds. The over is the favorite at -155, with the under a +130 underdog.

In their first fight, Poirier submitted Holloway in the first round. However, when they met again at UFC 236, the fight went the distance. Poirier won the fight 49-46 on all three scorecards. Both fighters are older, but Poirier has not had a fight go to decision since June 2020. 

Holloway vs. Poirier 3 Prediction

Poirier has one last chance to shine in the Octagon, and he gets to do it in front of a friendly crowd. The Louisiana native will headline this weekend’s UFC 318 PPV card against a familiar foe, Max Holloway.

Despite being 2-0 against Holloway, Poirier is the underdog going into this Saturday’s PPV. Poirier’s size and striking have proven to be too much for Holloway in the past, and I think the same will be true on Saturday.

I expect Holloway to put on a show, but Poirier will be the one getting his hand raised once again. Also, I do not think that this fight will go the distance. Poirier (+114) will win the BMF belt in under 4.5 rounds (+130).

More UFC 318 Odds

Before Poirier and Holloway square off for the final time, the UFC 318 PPV card will feature four other exciting matchups.

Favorite	Underdog	Weight Class
Daniel Zellhuber (-600)	Michael Johnson (+425)	Lightweight
Dan Ige (-220)	Patricio Pitbull (+182)	Featherweight
Kevin Holland (-460)	Daniel Rodriguez (+345)	Welterweight
Roman Kopylov (-225)	Paulo Costa (+186)	Middleweight

The PPV card starts with a thrilling Lightweight fight between Daniel Zellhuber and Michael Johnson. Then, Dan Ige faces off with former Bellator Legend Patricio Pitbull. Also, Kevin Holland and Daniel Rodriguez will throw down at Welterweight.

In the co-main event, Roman Kopylov goes one-on-one with Paulo Costa. Kopylov and Costa are scheduled to fight at Middleweight.

Daniel Zellhuber (-600) vs. Michael Johnson (+425)

Potential Lightweight contender Daniel Zellhuber (15-2) will attempt to get back on track after suffering his second career loss. He is a -600 favorite this weekend against long-time UFC veteran Michael Johnson (23-19).

Johnson has won back-to-back fights, but he will be at a significant size disadvantage in this fight. Zellhuber is three inches taller and has a three-and-a-half-inch reach advantage over the more experienced Johnson.

Also, Zellhuber has yet to be finished in his professional career. He is a perfect 7-0 in fights decided by knockout, and 3-0 in submission finishes. I think Zellhuber will add to his resume this weekend, improving to 11-0 in fights that do not go the distance.

Dan Ige (-220) vs. Patricio Pitbull (+182)

Up next is a Featherweight showdown between Dan Ige (19-9) and Patricio Pitbull (36-8). Two veterans of MMA, Ige is the -220 favorite over Pitbull (+182) this weekend. Both Ige and Pitbull desperately need a win after going 2-3 in their last five fights.

Despite his struggles, Ige still holds the honor of never being finished in MMA. However, he has a losing record of 7-9 in fights decided by the judges.

Pitbull, on the other hand, built his legendary career in Bellator, racking up a 24-6 record in the promotion. He made his Octagon debut at UFC 314, losing by decision to Yair Rodriguez. Five of his eight career losses have come via decision.

Neither veteran can afford another loss, but I think Ige will come up short this weekend. Pitbull (+182) pulls off the upset for his first win in the UFC.

Kevin Holland (-460) vs. Daniel Rodriguez (+345)

Speaking of MMA veterans, Kevin Holland (28-13, 1 NC) will compete in his 27th UFC fight this weekend. The “Trailblazer” is set to compete at Welterweight against Daniel Rodriguez (19-5). Holland is a -460 favorite against Rodriguez in the latest UFC 318 betting odds.

Rodriguez has won back-to-back fights, but he is still turning his career around from a three-fight losing streak. A win over Holland would improve Rodriguez to 3-3 in his last six fights.

Overall, Rodriguez is 9-4 in his UFC career.

Holland, on the other hand, is 15-10, 1 NC inside the Octagon. He is riding a two-fight winning streak, taking down Gunnar Nelson and Vicente Luque in his recent appearances. Also, Holland has 23 finishes in his career.

The deciding factor in this fight could be Holland’s seven-inch reach advantage. He has also been a better grappler so far in their respective careers. Holland will win, handing Rodriguez his fifth UFC loss.

Roman Kopylov (-225) vs. Paulo Costa (+186)

The Middleweight co-main event pits Roman Kopylov (14-3) against Paulo Costa (14-4). Kopylov and Costa each have 14 wins in their respective careers.

Offshore sports betting sites list Kopylov as a -225 favorite, giving him an implied win probability of 69.23%.

All four of Costa’s career losses have come in his last five fights. His only win in his last five appearances was a decision win over Luke Rockhold at UFC 278.

Kopylov is 6-3 in the UFC, including five knockout victories. He lost his first two UFC fights and then won six of his next seven fights. Kopylov has won back-to-back fights, including a decision win over César Almeida and a knockout win over Chris Curtis.

Costa’s inactivity makes it challenging to predict how he will fare this weekend. Also, despite being the taller fighter, Costa will be at a three-inch reach disadvantage. Kopylov is a gifted striker with 12 KO wins under his belt, and I believe he will add another this weekend in New Orleans.

How to Bet on UFC 318

UFC 318 in New Orleans will be the last time Dustin Poirier competes in the Octagon. He is an underdog, but I believe The Diamond will improve to 3-0 against Max Holloway. Read the guide above for all my predictions for this weekend’s PPV card.

You can wager on your UFC 318 predictions at BetUS. If you create a new account today, you can also claim a 125% welcome bonus on your first three qualifying deposits. Read our BetUS review to find out more about this sportsbook.