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The latest 2028 Democratic nominee odds provide an insight into one half of the upcoming presidential race. California Gov. Gavin Newsom is the favorite, but up-and-comers like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez are also making a run at the nomination.
Picking the right nominee can make or break a party’s chance of winning the presidential election. Keep reading to see why, despite the current odds, Newsom is not a lock to be the Democratic nominee in 2028.
2028 Democratic Party Presidential Nomination Winner Odds
Lucky Rebel provided the following odds for the winner of the 2028 Democratic Party presidential nomination.
| Candidate | 2028 Democratic Nominee Odds |
|---|---|
| Gavin Newsom | +200 |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | +800 |
| Jon Ossoff | +1000 |
| Josh Shapiro | +1400 |
| Kamala Harris | +1400 |
| Pete Buttigieg | +1400 |
| Andy Beshear | +2000 |
| Gretchen Whitmer | +2000 |
Newsom is the favorite at 2-1 in the latest Democratic nominee odds. AOC has the second-best odds at +800, with Jon Ossoff (+1000) rounding out the top three. Josh Shapiro, Kamala Harris, and Pete Buttigieg are all tied for the fourth-best odds at 14-1 each.
Why Newsom’s Lead Is Fragile
Newsom is the betting favorite at +200 at top political betting sites, but being the frontrunner this early does not guarantee a win. The California Governor has a long way to go to secure the nomination.
As the Governor of California and one of the most vocal opponents of Trump on a national stage, Newsom already has a recognizable brand. He is also well-spoken and accustomed to debating before large audiences, giving Newsom a leg up over other primary hopefuls.
Unfortunately, Newsom’s shortcomings as CA Governor, such as his struggles fixing the homelessness problem in the Golden State, will be used against him. He could also split votes with other moderate candidates, such as Kamala Harris.
Why AOC Is the Real Threat
There are dozens of potential Democratic nominees vying for the nomination, including Pete Buttigieg and former VP and 2024 nominee Kamala Harris. However, AOC is the best bet to upset Newsom for the position.
AOC’s Latest Polling Numbers
According to 270toWin, AOC ranks fourth when you average the latest Democratic presidential nomination polls.
- Kamala Harris = 23.5%
- Gavin Newsom = 16.2%
- Pete Buttigieg = 13.0%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez = 9.3%
- Bernie Sanders = 9.0%
- Josh Shapiro = 8.0%
- Cory Booker = 4.7%
Harris is the leader, but her failed 2024 campaign could cost her again in the primaries. Likewise, Pete Buttigieg’s previous attempts to win the nomination do not inspire confidence for the 2028 race.
AOC, on the other hand, would be making her first run at the nomination. Her progressive politics would help her attract the support of similar candidates, such as Bernie Sanders. As popular as Sanders was and still is, he is too old to run, but that will not stop him from putting his support behind a progressive candidate like AOC.
Why AOC Appeals to Left-Wing Voters
One of the fatal mistakes the DNC made in 2024 was trying to appeal to middle and undecided voters. This resulted in many voters on the left feeling unappreciated and ultimately not voting.
Joe Biden earned over 81 million votes in 2020, but Harris earned just 75 million votes, and the Democrats lost the popular vote.
Picking AOC would help court the left-wing voters left in the cold in 2024. Her progressive platform includes policies such as:
- Medicare for All
- Abolishing ICE
- Opposing military aid to Israel
Healthcare, ICE, and Israel are all likely to be major issues in the 2028 election cycle. Also, the success of other democratic socialist candidates, such as Zohran Mamdani in the New York City mayoral race, could foreshadow the success of someone like AOC.
Can AOC Attract MAGA Voters?
One area AOC can succeed where candidates like Newsom cannot is appealing to a specific type of MAGA voter.
In 2024, AOC won New York’s 14th District by approximately 38 points, but Harris lagged behind Biden’s 2020 performance by about eight points. A surprising trend from the election was a group of MAGA voters who supported AOC over her GOP opponent, Tina Forte.
In speaking with these split-ticket voters after the election, AOC found that they supported both her and Trump for multiple reasons, such as:
- AOC and Trump are both “Real”
- Trump and AOC are “outsiders”
- They focus on issues people care about
If AOC can appeal to these split-ticket voters again and expand her success to other states, she can take advantage of an untapped market that other Democrats cannot access.
The Polling vs. Markets Disconnect
The latest polls have Harris leading by a healthy margin, but the 2024 nominee is tied for the fourth-best odds at 14-1. Newsom, who is second in most polls, is the overall favorite at +200.
Polls can be easily manipulated based on who is surveyed and the questions they are asked. Also, recognizable figures have an advantage during early polls when voters do not know the other candidates.
It is easy to underestimate AOC this early in the race. She has not officially declared her candidacy. Also, even though AOC has been a vocal opponent of Trump and MAGA, she has not been aggressive in pushing the issue on social media as Newsom’s team has been.
The Path to the Nomination (How AOC Wins)
To win the nomination. AOC must consolidate support from the progressive coalition. Earning Bernie Sanders’s endorsement would be a start, but she also needs to expand her support beyond the Northeast.
AOC recently visited people in Morgan County, GA, who have been affected by Meta’s new AI data center. Operations like this can help AOC expand her reach and garner support beyond traditional progressive voters.
In addition to building support, AOC needs to raise funds for her campaign. Her campaign is unlikely to appeal to big-money donors, putting additional pressure on AOC to secure donations from middle- and lower-class voters.
How Newsom Can Beat AOC
Plenty can still go wrong for any Democratic hopeful, including Newsom and AOC. The latter is at an early disadvantage, but early betting odds are not the only reason to favor Newsom. It is easy for proponents of Newsom to make a case that appeals to the DNC and the status quo, and he has already put in a lot of work to build a winning campaign.
Newsom’s Appeal to DNC, Status Quo
Hillary Clinton’s defeat in 2016 was surprising, but the DNC does not appear to have learned from its mistakes. Clinton represented everything the establishment Democrats wanted and was pushed over a progressive candidate like Bernie Sanders. However, Clinton struggled to appeal to left-wing voters, earning fewer votes than Barack Obama did in either 2008 or 2012.
The DNC made a similar mistake in 2024, waiting too long to pull Biden from the ticket. Then, Harris compounded the issue by not distancing herself from Biden and focusing her campaign on recruiting undecided voters in the middle.
It could be a similar situation in 2028, with Newsom representing the status quo as Clinton did and AOC playing the role of the progressive Sanders.
Early Campaign Lead
It is too early to overestimate the importance of Newsom’s lead on odds boards, but it should not be overlooked, either.
Newsom has been one of the most vocal opponents of Trump, including challenging VP J.D. Vance to a debate in 2025. As the Gov. of California, Newsom was also thrust into the spotlight due to the ICE operations in the Golden State in 2025. His social media team also makes fun of Trump every chance it gets.
Newsom has become a recognizable figure and, if he uses that to his advantage, the CA Governor could build a lead that no other candidate can hope to catch up to.
Betting Take: Why AOC Is the Value Play Right Now
At +800, AOC has the second-shortest odds but still offers great value to be the Democratic nominee. She is the ideal candidate to appeal to disillusioned left-wing voters looking to capitalize on the success of Mamdani and other socialist candidates.
This is a futures wager, so your ante will be locked for the foreseeable future. On the bright side, her 8-1 odds mean you can bet less on AOC and still receive a large payout.
AOC’s current odds also do not reflect her true chances of winning. If she emerges as the best progressive candidate, her odds will shorten significantly. Betting early will lock in a higher value before her odds improve.
Where to Bet on the 2028 Democratic Nominee
Lucky Rebel has profitable markets on dozens of 2028 presidential hopefuls, including exciting odds on the 2028 Democratic nominee. Newsom is the favorite, but AOC is well-positioned to capitalize on left-wing voters seeking a more progressive candidate.
Sign up at Lucky Rebel today to bet on your Democratic nominee predictions. New members who use the site’s welcome bonus can get up to $1,250 in extra funds.
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