• Horse Racing
• Sports Betting

Belmont Stakes Trends and Fastest Times to Improve Your Betting Outlook

The country’s best three-year-olds return to Saratoga for the third consecutive year as Belmont Park remains under renovation. The 158th Belmont Stakes goes June 6, 2026, at 7:04 PM ET, contested again at 1¼ miles.

Kentucky Derby winner Golden Tempo skipped the Preakness to freshen up for this spot, while Derby runner-up Renegade heads the morning line at 9/5 off a closing second-place finish in Louisville. Preakness winner Napoleon Solo is being pointed to the Haskell and is not expected to run.

We’ve dug into the historical trends, post position data, and speed records below to help you sharpen your 2026 Belmont Stakes picks

Belmont Stakes Trends

The 158th Belmont Stakes takes place at Saratoga Race Course for the third consecutive year while Belmont Park remains under renovation. The race is again contested at 1¼ miles – the same distance as 2024 and 2025 – rather than the traditional 1½ miles.

The Belmont is typically run over a distance of 1¹⁄₂ miles, so it is dubbed “the test of the champion.” However, this year’s race will take place over a shorter distance of 1¹⁄₄ miles, which is the same length as the Kentucky Derby.

It will be important to consider the shorter distance and the change of venue when analyzing historical Belmont Stakes trends.

Belmont Stakes Post Position Trends

• Post 1 has been the most successful in Belmont stakes history, delivering 24 winners since 1904. The most recent winner from Post 1 was Justify in 2018. However, Tapit Shoes, who was assigned Post 1 in 2023, finished dead last.
• The 2024 Belmont winner Dornoch broke from Post 8 at 17-1, the longest-priced winner in recent memory at Saratoga. 2025 winner Sovereignty broke from Post 5, adding to that post’s strong historical record (now 16+ winners since 1904).
• Post 3 has produced 16 winners apiece since 1904, including the 2023 winner, Arcangelo.
• Post 5 is the third-most successful, having yielded 15 winners since 1904, ahead of Post 7 (14 wins), Post 2 (13 wins) and Post 6 (9 wins).

Many Belmont Winners Go Straight from Kentucky to New York

• Just three of the past 20 winners of the Belmont competed in the Preakness: Afleet Alex (2005), American Pharaoh (2015), and Justify (2018). American Pharaoh and Justify both won the Triple Crown.
• Sovereignty (2025) won the Kentucky Derby and skipped the Preakness, then won the Belmont – the same path Golden Tempo is taking in 2026. Renegade – who finished 2nd at Churchill Downs – also skipped the Preakness.
• Dornoch (2024) ran in neither the Derby nor the Preakness and still won the Belmont, a rare exception to recent patterns.
• However, 13 of the past 22 Belmont Stakes winners ran in the Kentucky Derby. Ten of those 13 winners did not race between the Derby and the Belmont, so they were fresh when they arrived in New York. The only exceptions were Afleet Alex, American Pharaoh, and Justify.

Belmont Stakes Favorites Trends

• Favorites have a strong recent record in this race. In the past 10 years, the favorite has won five times and finished second three times.
• Dornoch won at 17-1 in 2024, making him one of the biggest upsets in recent Belmont history. He was off the tote board as a long shot in a race won by the 10th or lower betting choice.
• Sovereignty won in 2025 as the Kentucky Derby winner and heavy favorite, continuing the trend of Derby winners who skip the Preakness performing well at the Belmont.
• The biggest underdog to win the Belmont Stakes in recent years was Creator in 2016, who paid $16.40 on a $1 win bet.
• Each of the past 12 winners had won at least once in their previous three races prior to the Belmont Stakes.
• Eight of the last 10 Belmont winners had already clinched a graded stakes victory.

Best Trainers and Jockeys in the Belmont

• Todd Pletcher remains the most successful trainer in this race over the past decade. He will be represented by Renegade in 2026, who enters as the morning-line favorite off a closing second in the Kentucky Derby.
• Bob Baffert has an even better record. He has only sent four horses to the Belmont in the past 10 years, with two wins and two places. However, he will not compete this year, as the New York Racing Association has suspended him.
• Irad Ortiz Jr. is aboard Renegade, reuniting one of the most dangerous trainer-jockey combos at Saratoga. Ortiz already has two Belmont wins and five places in the past 10 years; he knows this venue.

These Fastest Belmont Stakes Times Can Improve Your Betting Outlook

The inaugural Belmont Stakes took place at Jerome Park in the Bronx back in 1867. The race has been run over several different distances since then. These are the fastest winning times at each distance:

• 2:24.00 – Secretariat (1973; 1¹⁄₂ miles).
• 2:14.20 – Man o’ War (1920; 1³⁄₈ miles)
• 2:56.00 – Harry Bassett (1871; 1⁵⁄₈ miles)
• 1:46.53 – Tiz the Law (2020; 1¹⁄₈ miles)
• 2:00.69 – Sovereignty (2025; 1¼ miles)

Tiz the Law’s winning time of 1:46.53 sounds impressive. However, the race was run over a shorter distance of 1¹⁄₈ miles in 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic. The Belmont usually takes place over 1¹⁄₂ miles nowadays, and no horse has come close to beating Secretariat’s time. The 1¼-mile record has been broken in back-to-back years. Dornoch ran 2:01.64 in 2024, then Sovereignty eclipsed that with a 2:00.69 clocking in 2025. A fast early pace could put another record in play on June 6.

These are the recent speed trends:

• 12 of the last 15 winners have been within 4¹⁄₂ lengths of the leader after the opening half-mile of the Belmont, so this race has recently favored pacesetters and stalkers.
• Only two Belmont winners in the past 15 years were in the back half of the field after half a mile: Creator in 2016 and Sir Winston in 2019.
• 12 of the last 15 winners ran the first half-mile in less than 49 seconds.
• This race typically requires a great deal of stamina. 13 of the last 15 Belmont Stakes winners were sired by thoroughbreds that had won Grade 1 races at a distance of at least 1¹⁄₈ miles. In 2023, Forte almost bucked that trend, but he ultimately finished second, 1¹⁄₂ lengths behind Arcangelo.

Past Belmont Stakes Winners

The Belmont has seen its format shift in recent years. The race moved from Belmont Park to Saratoga in 2024 and has been run at 1¼ miles each year since, shorter than the traditional 1½ miles. The 2020 running was also shortened to 1⅛ miles due to COVID.

Year	Winner	Trainer	Jockey	Odds	Distance
2025	Sovereignty	William Mott	Junior Alvarado	2-1	1¼ miles
2024	Dornoch	Danny Gargan	Luis Saez	15-1	1¼ miles
2023	Arcangelo	Jena Antonucci	Javier Castellano	8-1	1½ miles
2022	Mo Donegal	Todd Pletcher	Irad Ortiz Jr.	7-2	1½ miles
2021	Essential Quality	Brad Cox	Luis Saez	2-1	1½ miles
2020	Tiz the Law	Barclay Tagg	Manuel Franco	6-5	1⅛ miles
2019	Sir Winston	Mark Hennig	Joel Rosario	12-1	1½ miles
2018	Justify	Bob Baffert	Mike Smith	4-5	1½ miles
2017	Tapwrit	Todd Pletcher	José Ortiz	6-1	1½ miles
2016	Creator	Steve Asmussen	Irad Ortiz Jr.	10-1	1½ miles

Belmont Stakes 2026 Odds

The 2026 Belmont Stakes field is set with Renegade heading the market at 2-1. These are fixed-odds futures, so you lock in your price now and know exactly what you win if your horse gets up. Odds will move as race day approaches, so if you like a number, getting it early matters.

Horse	2026 Belmont Stakes Odds
Renegade	2-1
Golden Tempo	3-1
Chief Wallabee	9-2
Commandment	6-1
Emerging Market	8-1
Poweshift	12-1
Growth Equity	15-1
Ocelli	20-1
Ottinho	20-1
Vitruvian Man	30-1

How to Handicap the Belmont Stakes

The usual approach to handicapping the Belmont gets complicated when both top horses skip the Preakness. Golden Tempo and Renegade arrive equally fresh off the Kentucky Derby, which means the form lines are clear and the question is simply which horse you trust to improve on that effort.

Golden Tempo won the Derby outright and is following the same path Sovereignty took in 2025. Sovereignty won the Derby, skipped the Preakness, came to Saratoga fresh, and won the Belmont convincingly. The market has priced that blueprint into Golden Tempo at 3-1, which is fair but leaves value elsewhere.

Renegade closed strongly into Golden Tempo at Churchill Downs and posted a 104 speed figure in the process. He has Todd Pletcher in the trainer’s barn and Irad Ortiz Jr. in the irons, which is the most successful trainer-jockey combination at this venue over the past decade. The market making him the 2-1 favorite over the Derby winner is as much a vote for connections as it is for the horse himself.

For bettors looking further down the board, Commandment is worth considering at 6-1. He won the Florida Derby and encountered a troubled trip at Churchill Downs that left his true ability over this distance unclear. Fresh horses with legitimate prep credentials and valid excuses from the Derby have hit the board at the Belmont at a higher rate than their odds typically suggest.

2026 Belmont Stakes Picks

• Golden Tempo is the most compelling play at 3-1. He won the Kentucky Derby, skipped the Preakness, and is following the exact blueprint that Sovereignty used to win this race in 2025. Rested, proven at 1¼ miles, and with the Derby form to show he can handle a full field; this is the logical bet.
• Growth Equity is the long-shot worth a piece of. He won the Peter Pan Stakes – a traditional Belmont prep – and arrives without the wear of two prior Triple Crown races. At 6-1, you’re getting paid to take the fresh horse with the right pedigree for this distance.

Belmont Stakes FAQ

Our 2026 Belmont Stakes Predictions

The 2026 Belmont Stakes sets up as one of the more interesting renewals in recent memory. Golden Tempo arrives fresh off the Kentucky Derby following the path that worked for Sovereignty a year ago, while Renegade took the same route after finishing a closing second in Louisville.

If you’re ready to bet, these racebooks are your best starting point.